Both PPI and CPI came in slightly hotter than expected
Markets are still predicting no change in rates for the FOMC meeting in November
Market Overview
US equities were narrowly mixed this week with the S&P 500 a bit higher but Nasdaq slightly lower. Small-caps also trailed the broader S&P 500 for a second-straight week.
Outperformers included:
moneycenter banks
fertilizer
energy
managed care
pharma
biotech
A&D
software
semicap equipment
discount retailers
media
telecom.
Underperformers included:
big tech
industrial metals
airlines
fund/asset managers
Chinese tech
autos
casual dining
food and beverage
Treasuries were firmer with a big curve flattening move. The 10 year minus 2 year spread fell 11 bps back down to -41bps with the 2Y yield just over 5.00%, and the 10Y closing just above 4.60%.
The dollar index was up 0.6% after falling 0.2% last week, now higher 12 of the past 13 weeks. Gold finished the week up 5.2%, breaking three-straight weekly declines and the best weekly performance since March. WTI crude was up 5.9.
Political Update
Markets mostly shook off any geopolitical concerns following the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Fears that the conflict would spread to a wider regional situation were dampened after the US intelligence deemed the likelihood of a broader Iran-Israel clash as low, though the White House said Iran was at least “complicit” in the attack.
However, oil saw a fairly volatile week. Crude prices rallied on Monday following the outbreak of the conflict, then softened following some reports that US intelligence said Iran was surprised by the attack, removing the threat of further sanctions on Iranian oil. Prices rebounded on Friday following indications that Israel is preparing for a ground invasion in Gaza.
Treasury Update
Treasury volatility popped up mid-week after three-straight disappointing Treasury auctions, reflecting escalated fears around Treasury supply, deficits, weakening foreign demand, and rising term premiums. BofA analysts noted this week that Treasury has been increasing bill auction sizes recently in anticipation of larger federal deficits in October and November, exacerbating demand uncertainty.
This week also saw some cautious headlines around disinflation momentum, though analysts said there were some better trends under the surface.
September headline CPI was hotter than expected, though core CPI was in line and the lowest on an annualized basis in two years. Some analysts played down hot print as housing and rents continue to trail more current indexes, while the biggest Supercore (ex-housing core services) increase of the year was played down given upside driven by hotels and sports tickets, which are expected to normalize.
Friday’s October Michigan Consumer Sentiment also missed as 1-year inflation expectations rose 0.6pp m/m to 3.8%, the highest since May. However, analysts said the increase was likely due to higher gasoline prices, though gasoline futures fell to the lowest level of the year this week, suggesting some easing pressure in the weeks ahead.
Data this coming week includes the October Empire Manufacturing index on Monday, Tuesday’s September retail sales, Wednesday’s September housing starts and building permits, and Thursday’s September existing home sales. Fed Chair Powell is set to appear at an Economic Club of New York event next Thursday in one of the last appearances before the start of the blackout period ahead of the Nov 1st rate decision.
The Baker Hughes rig count was up 3 this week. There are 622 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 147 from last year.
Metals Complex
This Week’s Employment Picture
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary– Released 10/6/2023 – The US economy added 336k non-farm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $33.88. Hiring highlights include +70k Education and Health Services, +96k Leisure and Hospitality, and +73k Government.
Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents/0.2% to $33.88.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.0%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/5/2023 – In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000 increasing 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 208,750 a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 10/3/2023 – The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/28/2023 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0% for the 3-month period ending in June 2023. The 12-month period ending in June 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.5. The 12-month period ending June 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent over the 12-month June 2023 and increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. Benefit costs increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2023 and increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Consumer Price Index –Released 10/12/2023– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 10/11/2023– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.7 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in September.
Recent Economic Data
Consumer Credit –Released 10/6/2023 – Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent in August. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance –Released 10/5/2023 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $5.5 billion to $84.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.0 billion to $26.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/4/2023 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 54.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 10/2/2023 – Construction spending during August 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,983.5 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,973.7 billion. The August figure is 7.4 percent above the August 2022 estimate of $1,847.3 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2023 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 49.0 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a month of expansion following nine months of contraction. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50.0 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 9/29/2023 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September decreasing to 44.1 points down from 48.7 points in August. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region, and it was stronger than the previous month.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 9/29/2023 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.035 million units in August.
Personal Income – Released 9/29/2023 – Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP– Released 9/28/2023 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates which had GDP increasing at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.
Durable Goods Released 9/27/2023 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $284.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.6 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Machinery, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $37.8 billion.
New Residential SalesReleased 9/26/2023 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.7 percent below the revised July rate of 739,000 but is 5.8 percent above the August 2022 estimate of 638,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The average sales price was $514,000. At the end of August, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 436,000, a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/26/2023 – Consumer Confidence decreased for the second consecutive month in September to 103.0, down from 108.7 in August. Expectations fell back below 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024. Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.
Existing Home Sales Released 9/21/2023 – August 2023 brought 4.04 million in sales, a decrease of 0.7% from July. The median sales price was $407,100. The current unsold housing inventory was 3.3 months of inventory.
Housing Starts – Released 9/19/2023– August housing starts came in at 1,283,000, 11.3% below the July estimate and 14.8% below the August 2022 rate. Building permits were 6.9% above the July rate at $1,543,000 and 2.7% below the August 2022 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 9/15/2023 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in August. Utilities output increased 0.9%. Manufacturing increased 0.1%. Mining increased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 79.7% in August, in line with its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 9/14/2023– Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in August and are up 2.5% above August 2022.
Next week we get data on Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts, and Existing Home Sales.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 41, 2023
Week 41 Key Talking Points
Market Overview
US equities were narrowly mixed this week with the S&P 500 a bit higher but Nasdaq slightly lower. Small-caps also trailed the broader S&P 500 for a second-straight week.
Outperformers included:
Underperformers included:
Treasuries were firmer with a big curve flattening move. The 10 year minus 2 year spread fell 11 bps back down to -41bps with the 2Y yield just over 5.00%, and the 10Y closing just above 4.60%.
The dollar index was up 0.6% after falling 0.2% last week, now higher 12 of the past 13 weeks. Gold finished the week up 5.2%, breaking three-straight weekly declines and the best weekly performance since March. WTI crude was up 5.9.
Political Update
Markets mostly shook off any geopolitical concerns following the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Fears that the conflict would spread to a wider regional situation were dampened after the US intelligence deemed the likelihood of a broader Iran-Israel clash as low, though the White House said Iran was at least “complicit” in the attack.
However, oil saw a fairly volatile week. Crude prices rallied on Monday following the outbreak of the conflict, then softened following some reports that US intelligence said Iran was surprised by the attack, removing the threat of further sanctions on Iranian oil. Prices rebounded on Friday following indications that Israel is preparing for a ground invasion in Gaza.
Treasury Update
Treasury volatility popped up mid-week after three-straight disappointing Treasury auctions, reflecting escalated fears around Treasury supply, deficits, weakening foreign demand, and rising term premiums. BofA analysts noted this week that Treasury has been increasing bill auction sizes recently in anticipation of larger federal deficits in October and November, exacerbating demand uncertainty.
This week also saw some cautious headlines around disinflation momentum, though analysts said there were some better trends under the surface.
September headline CPI was hotter than expected, though core CPI was in line and the lowest on an annualized basis in two years. Some analysts played down hot print as housing and rents continue to trail more current indexes, while the biggest Supercore (ex-housing core services) increase of the year was played down given upside driven by hotels and sports tickets, which are expected to normalize.
Friday’s October Michigan Consumer Sentiment also missed as 1-year inflation expectations rose 0.6pp m/m to 3.8%, the highest since May. However, analysts said the increase was likely due to higher gasoline prices, though gasoline futures fell to the lowest level of the year this week, suggesting some easing pressure in the weeks ahead.
Data this coming week includes the October Empire Manufacturing index on Monday, Tuesday’s September retail sales, Wednesday’s September housing starts and building permits, and Thursday’s September existing home sales. Fed Chair Powell is set to appear at an Economic Club of New York event next Thursday in one of the last appearances before the start of the blackout period ahead of the Nov 1st rate decision.
Next week we get data on CPI and PPI.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
July FOMC Statement July Fed Minutes Balance Sheet Reduction Plan Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2022
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was up 3 this week. There are 622 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 147 from last year.
Metals Complex
This Week’s Employment Picture
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 10/6/2023 – The US economy added 336k non-farm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $33.88. Hiring highlights include +70k Education and Health Services, +96k Leisure and Hospitality, and +73k Government.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/5/2023 – In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000 increasing 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 208,750 a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 10/3/2023 – The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/28/2023 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0% for the 3-month period ending in June 2023. The 12-month period ending in June 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.5. The 12-month period ending June 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent over the 12-month June 2023 and increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. Benefit costs increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2023 and increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/12/2023 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 10/11/2023 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.7 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in September.
Recent Economic Data
Consumer Credit – Released 10/6/2023 – Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent in August. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 10/5/2023 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $5.5 billion to $84.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.0 billion to $26.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/4/2023 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 54.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 10/2/2023 – Construction spending during August 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,983.5 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,973.7 billion. The August figure is 7.4 percent above the August 2022 estimate of $1,847.3 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2023 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 49.0 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a month of expansion following nine months of contraction. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50.0 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 9/29/2023 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September decreasing to 44.1 points down from 48.7 points in August. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region, and it was stronger than the previous month.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 9/29/2023 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.035 million units in August.
Personal Income – Released 9/29/2023 – Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP – Released 9/28/2023 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates which had GDP increasing at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.
Durable Goods Released 9/27/2023 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $284.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.6 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Machinery, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $37.8 billion.
New Residential Sales Released 9/26/2023 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.7 percent below the revised July rate of 739,000 but is 5.8 percent above the August 2022 estimate of 638,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The average sales price was $514,000. At the end of August, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 436,000, a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/26/2023 – Consumer Confidence decreased for the second consecutive month in September to 103.0, down from 108.7 in August. Expectations fell back below 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024. Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.
Existing Home Sales Released 9/21/2023 – August 2023 brought 4.04 million in sales, a decrease of 0.7% from July. The median sales price was $407,100. The current unsold housing inventory was 3.3 months of inventory.
Housing Starts – Released 9/19/2023 – August housing starts came in at 1,283,000, 11.3% below the July estimate and 14.8% below the August 2022 rate. Building permits were 6.9% above the July rate at $1,543,000 and 2.7% below the August 2022 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 9/15/2023 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in August. Utilities output increased 0.9%. Manufacturing increased 0.1%. Mining increased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 79.7% in August, in line with its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 9/14/2023 – Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in August and are up 2.5% above August 2022.
Next week we get data on Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts, and Existing Home Sales.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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