There was little change to the overall market narrative which received a bullish boost from last week’s dovish Fed takeaways and weak nonfarm payrolls report. Still some lingering concern around higher-for longer-narrative which was reinforced in some Fedspeak this week due to sticky inflation. While it was a quiet week on the macro front, it was a busy one for earnings which largely continued to come in ahead of expectations, coupled with a growing number of corporate buyback announcements.
As of Friday the 10th, (with 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. For Q1 2024, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 5.4%. If 5.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2022 (5.8%).
There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. On the bullish side, Q1 earnings continue to outpace forecast and recent commentary notes analysts are raising Q2 estimates with AI secular growth trend still intact.
Additionally, market successfully absorbed $125B in Treasury issuance despite worries about rising federal budgets.
Meanwhile, jobless claims came in ahead of consensus which fits with hopes for a cooling labor market (bad-news-is-good-news theme), particularly after last week’s nonfarm payrolls showed slowing jobs growth. Consumer also still spending, but moderation is expected.
On the bearish side, recent Fedspeak reinforced high-for-longer narrative with sticky inflation still top of mind. Bowman said rate cuts not warranted this year. Additionally, weaker labor market seen as double edge sword which could begin to weigh on corporate results. Also Washington drama and geopolitical tensions seen as potential source of short and medium term volatility.
US equities ended higher last week and largely in waiting mode ahead of this week’s CPI reading. The major indices locked in a third straight week of gains with S&P 500 now less than 1% from March record close. E
qual weight S&P outperformed the official index. Big tech was mostly higher with NFLX +5.4% and META +5.3% seeing solid gains, while TSLA -7.0% was the laggard. Other outperformers included utilities, insurance, money centers, precious metals miners, trucking, semis, beverages, chemicals, and managed care.
Underperformers included QSRs, IT services, China tech, biotech, medical devices, cruiselines, casinos, autos, and discounters.
Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve flattening. Dollar index was stronger with yen weakness again the story in FX. BoJ Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen’s impact on monetary policy. Gold ended the week up 2.8%. WTI crude ended up 0.2%, after rejecting latest attempt to get over $80/barrel.
With Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week’s claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling. Elsewhere, UMich preliminary May consumer sentiment was well below consensus, while 1Y inflation expectations were hotter.
Nothing groundbreaking in Fedspeak. Barkin discussed the “whiplash” of the past few months of data and argued it is difficult to determine if it is just normal bumpiness. San Francisco’s Daly echoed similar sentiment and said inflation is going to be a bumpy ride and is still too high, though she also noted no evidence labor market is in a worrisome position.
Collins said getting back to 2% target may take longer than expected. Bowman commented policy needs to be steady for a bit while longer, said it’s too early to consider cutting rates amid “disappointing” Q1 inflation data. Bostic still thinks cuts can happen this year despite some hotter inflation reports.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 this week. There are 603 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 1128 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/9/2024 – In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 215,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 5/3/2024 – The US economy added 175k non-farm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 3.9%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $34.75. Hiring highlights include +56k Healthcare, +31k Social Assistance, +22k Transportation and warehousing, and +20k Retail Trade.
Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents/0.2% to $34.75.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 3.9%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.4%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.
Average work week decreased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 5/1/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires was little changed while total separations declined to 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Consumer Credit– Released 5/7/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in March. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
Recent Economic Data
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 5/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 49.4 percent, 2.0 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 51.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/2/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February. March exports were $257.6 billion, $5.3 billion less than February exports. March imports were $327.0 billion, $5.4 billion less than February imports. The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $92.5 billion and a increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $23.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/1/2024 – Construction spending during March 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,083.9 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,087.8 billion. The March figure is 9.6 percent above the March 2023 estimate of $1,901.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/1/2024 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 49.2 percent, down 1.1 percent from March. The manufacturing sector contracted in April after one month of expansion and following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 48th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.1 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the figure of 51.4 percent recorded in March. The Production Index reading of 51.3 percent is a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to March’s figure of 54.6 percent.
Chicago PMI– Released 4/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April declining to 37.9 points down from 41.4 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in April, and the lowest level since November 2022.
Consumer Confidence – Released 4/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in April for the third consecutive month. Expectations decreased from 74.0 to 66.4. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation declined in April from 14.8 to 142.9. Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/26/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.576 million units in March.
Personal Income– Released 4/26/2024 – Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in March.
First Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 4/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 4/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up two consecutive months, increased $7.3 billionor 2.6 percent to $283.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $6.8 billion or 7.7 percent to $95.9 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $282.4 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $89.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 4/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 8.8 percent (±17.2 percent)* above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent (±19.5 percent)* above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
Existing Home Sales – Released 4/18/2024 – Existing home sales in March decreased 4.3% from February and fell 3.7% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.19 million in March seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $393,500.
Housing Starts– Released 4/16/2024 – March housing starts came in at 1,321,000, 14.7% below the February estimate and is 4.3% below the March 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.3% below the February rate at $1,458,000 but 1.5% above the March 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 4/16/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in March but declined 1.8% in the first quarter of 2024. Manufacturing increased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 2.0%. Mining decreased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 78.4% in March, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 4/15/2024– Headline retail sales increased 0.7% in March and are up 4.0% above March 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 4/11/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
Consumer Price Index –Released 4/10/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
This week we get data on CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Housing Starts.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 19, 2024
Key Takeaways
There was little change to the overall market narrative which received a bullish boost from last week’s dovish Fed takeaways and weak nonfarm payrolls report. Still some lingering concern around higher-for longer-narrative which was reinforced in some Fedspeak this week due to sticky inflation. While it was a quiet week on the macro front, it was a busy one for earnings which largely continued to come in ahead of expectations, coupled with a growing number of corporate buyback announcements.
As of Friday the 10th, (with 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. For Q1 2024, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 5.4%. If 5.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2022 (5.8%).
There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. On the bullish side, Q1 earnings continue to outpace forecast and recent commentary notes analysts are raising Q2 estimates with AI secular growth trend still intact.
Additionally, market successfully absorbed $125B in Treasury issuance despite worries about rising federal budgets.
Meanwhile, jobless claims came in ahead of consensus which fits with hopes for a cooling labor market (bad-news-is-good-news theme), particularly after last week’s nonfarm payrolls showed slowing jobs growth. Consumer also still spending, but moderation is expected.
On the bearish side, recent Fedspeak reinforced high-for-longer narrative with sticky inflation still top of mind. Bowman said rate cuts not warranted this year. Additionally, weaker labor market seen as double edge sword which could begin to weigh on corporate results. Also Washington drama and geopolitical tensions seen as potential source of short and medium term volatility.
US equities ended higher last week and largely in waiting mode ahead of this week’s CPI reading. The major indices locked in a third straight week of gains with S&P 500 now less than 1% from March record close. E
qual weight S&P outperformed the official index. Big tech was mostly higher with NFLX +5.4% and META +5.3% seeing solid gains, while TSLA -7.0% was the laggard. Other outperformers included utilities, insurance, money centers, precious metals miners, trucking, semis, beverages, chemicals, and managed care.
Underperformers included QSRs, IT services, China tech, biotech, medical devices, cruiselines, casinos, autos, and discounters.
Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve flattening. Dollar index was stronger with yen weakness again the story in FX. BoJ Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen’s impact on monetary policy. Gold ended the week up 2.8%. WTI crude ended up 0.2%, after rejecting latest attempt to get over $80/barrel.
With Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week’s claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling. Elsewhere, UMich preliminary May consumer sentiment was well below consensus, while 1Y inflation expectations were hotter.
Nothing groundbreaking in Fedspeak. Barkin discussed the “whiplash” of the past few months of data and argued it is difficult to determine if it is just normal bumpiness. San Francisco’s Daly echoed similar sentiment and said inflation is going to be a bumpy ride and is still too high, though she also noted no evidence labor market is in a worrisome position.
Collins said getting back to 2% target may take longer than expected. Bowman commented policy needs to be steady for a bit while longer, said it’s too early to consider cutting rates amid “disappointing” Q1 inflation data. Bostic still thinks cuts can happen this year despite some hotter inflation reports.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 this week. There are 603 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 1128 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/9/2024 – In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 215,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/3/2024 – The US economy added 175k non-farm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 3.9%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $34.75. Hiring highlights include +56k Healthcare, +31k Social Assistance, +22k Transportation and warehousing, and +20k Retail Trade.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 5/1/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires was little changed while total separations declined to 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Consumer Credit– Released 5/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in March. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
Recent Economic Data
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 49.4 percent, 2.0 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 51.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/2/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February. March exports were $257.6 billion, $5.3 billion less than February exports. March imports were $327.0 billion, $5.4 billion less than February imports. The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $92.5 billion and a increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $23.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/1/2024 – Construction spending during March 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,083.9 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,087.8 billion. The March figure is 9.6 percent above the March 2023 estimate of $1,901.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/1/2024 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 49.2 percent, down 1.1 percent from March. The manufacturing sector contracted in April after one month of expansion and following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 48th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.1 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the figure of 51.4 percent recorded in March. The Production Index reading of 51.3 percent is a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to March’s figure of 54.6 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 4/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April declining to 37.9 points down from 41.4 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in April, and the lowest level since November 2022.
Consumer Confidence – Released 4/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in April for the third consecutive month. Expectations decreased from 74.0 to 66.4. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation declined in April from 14.8 to 142.9. Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/26/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.576 million units in March.
Personal Income – Released 4/26/2024 – Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in March.
First Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 4/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 4/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up two consecutive months, increased $7.3 billionor 2.6 percent to $283.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $6.8 billion or 7.7 percent to $95.9 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $282.4 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $89.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 4/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 8.8 percent (±17.2 percent)* above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent (±19.5 percent)* above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
Existing Home Sales – Released 4/18/2024 – Existing home sales in March decreased 4.3% from February and fell 3.7% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.19 million in March seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $393,500.
Housing Starts– Released 4/16/2024 – March housing starts came in at 1,321,000, 14.7% below the February estimate and is 4.3% below the March 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.3% below the February rate at $1,458,000 but 1.5% above the March 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 4/16/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in March but declined 1.8% in the first quarter of 2024. Manufacturing increased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 2.0%. Mining decreased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 78.4% in March, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 4/15/2024 – Headline retail sales increased 0.7% in March and are up 4.0% above March 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 4/11/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
Consumer Price Index – Released 4/10/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
This week we get data on CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Housing Starts.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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