US equity indices were mixed in last week’s trading, with the market largely continuing to see a rotation out of big tech/growth/momentum and into value, cyclicals, and small-caps. S&P saw its worst week since 19-Apr, logging only its third down week of the past 13th. However, the equal-weight S&P outperformed the official index by 190bp. The Nasdaq was hit hard by tech weakness, notching its first weekly lost since late May (and seeing only its second down week of prior 13). At the same time, the small-cap Russell 2000 recorded its fourth gain of the last five weeks. A big five-day rally through Tuesday saw that index rise 11.5% (and hitting its highest close since December 2021), though it then pulled back from significantly overbought levels.
Big tech was broadly lower, with NVDA (8.8%) the notable decliner. There was also broader weakness in the semi and software spaces (cybersecurity was hit Friday by a massive global outage related to CRWD (17.9%)). Retail, autos/suppliers, apparel, and casinos all weighed on consumer discretionary. Other laggards included large-cap pharma, MedTech, beauty, copper/aluminum, and China tech. Areas of strength included homebuilders, banks (particularly regionals), managed care (UNH +10.5%), energy, rails, containerboard, media, REITs, machinery, and P&C insurance.
Treasuries were weaker across the curve, with late-week yields erasing some Tuesday/Wednesday slides. The dollar rose after two weeks lower; DXY +0.3%. The yen saw some midweek strength amid thoughts of another intervention. Gold was lower for the week after a sharp drop on Friday, ending down 0.1% (and pulling off a fresh record high earlier in the week). Copper was sharply lower, dropping 7.6% in its worst week since September 2022, with some blame going to continued worries about China demand. Oil was lower again this week, with WTI settling down 4.3%.
Much of the week continued to experience the same rotations sparked by last week’s cooler June CPI data, away from megacap tech, growth, and momentum areas and into previously out-of-favor groups including small caps and value. Multiple themes continued to play into that narrative, including soft-landing hopes, expectations for the coming Fed rate pivot, and the surge of the “Trump trade” as market expectations firm for his victory in the November election (and possible GOP control of both the House and Senate). A big debate remains around the sustainability of these rotations, which may depend a great deal on the coming spate of big-tech earnings. Obviously, Sunday brought about President Biden announcing he will not stand for re-election, so there are plenty of unknowns in the short term.
The week’s big economic release was June retail sales, which were flat against expectations for a monthly decline (and May was revised upward). However, a strong reading for control-group sales helped ease some concerns about consumer resiliency. Elsewhere, weekly initial jobless claims ticked up, though there were some thoughts about seasonal and weather disruptions. July’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey improved a bit, but remained in contraction; the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index hit its highest level since April. June housing starts and permits topped consensus, though NAHB homebuilder sentiment was weaker.
There was some notable Fedspeak, primarily a Monday appearance by Chair Powell in which he said incoming data has given policymakers more confidence on inflation (though he offered no signals for coming meetings). Governor Waller said he believes a cut may be getting closer, and Chicago’s Goolsbee cautioned against holding rates steady too long in the face of disinflation. Williams and Daly voiced optimism but remained cautious about hinting at any timetable. Market expectations remain firmly anchored for a first rate cut to come in September.
There are a lot of moving pieces that may bear on the path ahead. Increased inflows to US equities may be evidence of some form of FOMO/animal spirits factor, coming as the data continue to strengthen the soft-landing case. But while the market may welcome Fed easing, there is also underlying concern about the broader impact of a growth slowdown. There is some optimism about a return to a pro-business, lower-regulation Trump administration, though also worries about impacts from a tariff-driven trade policy and repercussions from potentially steep borrowings. Retail sales have helped maintain faith in the resilient consumer, but earnings reports continue to flag stresses in a number of areas. The market is also moving into a period with less seasonal support, while elevated sentiment and stretched positioning may warrant attention
The Baker Hughes rig count was up 2 this week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 83 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 7/18/2024 – In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 234,750 an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/5/2024– The US Economyadded 206k nonfarm jobs in June and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.00. Hiring highlights include +49k Healthcare, +70k Government, and +34k Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.00.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.6%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Housing Starts– Released 7/17/2024 – June housing starts came in at 1,353,000, 3.0% above the May estimate but is 4.4% below the June 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.4% above the May rate at $1,446,000 but is 3.1% below the June 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.6% in June. Manufacturing increased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in June was 1.6% higher than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.8% in June, a rate that is 0.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 7/16/2024– Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in June and are up 2.3% above June 2023.
Recent Economic Data
Producer Price Index– Released 7/12/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index –Released 7/11/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 7/8/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/5/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.290 million units in June.
U.S. Trade Balance–Released 7/3/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion more than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $100.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $25.1 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 7/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in three months. The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5.0 percentage lower than May’s reading of 53.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2024 – Construction spending during May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.8 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised April estimate of $2,142.1 billion. The May figure is 6.4 percent above the May 2023 estimate of $2,011.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2024 – The June Manufacturing PMI registered 48..5 percent, down 0.2 percent from May. The manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.4 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 1.7-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 50.2 percent.
Chicago PMI– Released 6/28/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in June but increased to 47.4 points up from 35.4 points in May. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in June.
Personal Income – Released 6/28/2024 – Personal income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 6/27/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “third” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3 percent. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports increased.
Durable GoodsReleased 6/27/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up four consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $283.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.2 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down following three consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $284.7 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive month of increases, drove the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $92.0 billion.
New Residential SalesReleased 6/26/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 11.3 percent below the revised April rate of 698,000 and is 16.5 percent below the May 2023 estimate of 741,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2024 was $417,400. The average sales price was $520,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/25/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 101.3 to 100.4 in June following a one month increase and three consecutive months of decline. The expectations index fell from 74.9 to 73.0. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.
Existing Home Sales –Released 6/21/2024 – Existing home sales in May decreased 0.7% from April and fell 2.8% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.11 million in May seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $419,300.
This week we get data on Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Housing Starts.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 29, 2024
US equity indices were mixed in last week’s trading, with the market largely continuing to see a rotation out of big tech/growth/momentum and into value, cyclicals, and small-caps. S&P saw its worst week since 19-Apr, logging only its third down week of the past 13th. However, the equal-weight S&P outperformed the official index by 190bp. The Nasdaq was hit hard by tech weakness, notching its first weekly lost since late May (and seeing only its second down week of prior 13). At the same time, the small-cap Russell 2000 recorded its fourth gain of the last five weeks. A big five-day rally through Tuesday saw that index rise 11.5% (and hitting its highest close since December 2021), though it then pulled back from significantly overbought levels.
Big tech was broadly lower, with NVDA (8.8%) the notable decliner. There was also broader weakness in the semi and software spaces (cybersecurity was hit Friday by a massive global outage related to CRWD (17.9%)). Retail, autos/suppliers, apparel, and casinos all weighed on consumer discretionary. Other laggards included large-cap pharma, MedTech, beauty, copper/aluminum, and China tech. Areas of strength included homebuilders, banks (particularly regionals), managed care (UNH +10.5%), energy, rails, containerboard, media, REITs, machinery, and P&C insurance.
Treasuries were weaker across the curve, with late-week yields erasing some Tuesday/Wednesday slides. The dollar rose after two weeks lower; DXY +0.3%. The yen saw some midweek strength amid thoughts of another intervention. Gold was lower for the week after a sharp drop on Friday, ending down 0.1% (and pulling off a fresh record high earlier in the week). Copper was sharply lower, dropping 7.6% in its worst week since September 2022, with some blame going to continued worries about China demand. Oil was lower again this week, with WTI settling down 4.3%.
Much of the week continued to experience the same rotations sparked by last week’s cooler June CPI data, away from megacap tech, growth, and momentum areas and into previously out-of-favor groups including small caps and value. Multiple themes continued to play into that narrative, including soft-landing hopes, expectations for the coming Fed rate pivot, and the surge of the “Trump trade” as market expectations firm for his victory in the November election (and possible GOP control of both the House and Senate). A big debate remains around the sustainability of these rotations, which may depend a great deal on the coming spate of big-tech earnings. Obviously, Sunday brought about President Biden announcing he will not stand for re-election, so there are plenty of unknowns in the short term.
The week’s big economic release was June retail sales, which were flat against expectations for a monthly decline (and May was revised upward). However, a strong reading for control-group sales helped ease some concerns about consumer resiliency. Elsewhere, weekly initial jobless claims ticked up, though there were some thoughts about seasonal and weather disruptions. July’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey improved a bit, but remained in contraction; the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index hit its highest level since April. June housing starts and permits topped consensus, though NAHB homebuilder sentiment was weaker.
There was some notable Fedspeak, primarily a Monday appearance by Chair Powell in which he said incoming data has given policymakers more confidence on inflation (though he offered no signals for coming meetings). Governor Waller said he believes a cut may be getting closer, and Chicago’s Goolsbee cautioned against holding rates steady too long in the face of disinflation. Williams and Daly voiced optimism but remained cautious about hinting at any timetable. Market expectations remain firmly anchored for a first rate cut to come in September.
There are a lot of moving pieces that may bear on the path ahead. Increased inflows to US equities may be evidence of some form of FOMO/animal spirits factor, coming as the data continue to strengthen the soft-landing case. But while the market may welcome Fed easing, there is also underlying concern about the broader impact of a growth slowdown. There is some optimism about a return to a pro-business, lower-regulation Trump administration, though also worries about impacts from a tariff-driven trade policy and repercussions from potentially steep borrowings. Retail sales have helped maintain faith in the resilient consumer, but earnings reports continue to flag stresses in a number of areas. The market is also moving into a period with less seasonal support, while elevated sentiment and stretched positioning may warrant attention
Fixed Income:
Yield Curve:
May FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was up 2 this week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 83 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 7/18/2024 – In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 234,750 an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/5/2024 – The US Economyadded 206k nonfarm jobs in June and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.00. Hiring highlights include +49k Healthcare, +70k Government, and +34k Social Assistance.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Housing Starts– Released 7/17/2024 – June housing starts came in at 1,353,000, 3.0% above the May estimate but is 4.4% below the June 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.4% above the May rate at $1,446,000 but is 3.1% below the June 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.6% in June. Manufacturing increased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in June was 1.6% higher than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.8% in June, a rate that is 0.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 7/16/2024 – Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in June and are up 2.3% above June 2023.
Recent Economic Data
Producer Price Index – Released 7/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 7/8/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/5/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.290 million units in June.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/3/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion more than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $100.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $25.1 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in three months. The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5.0 percentage lower than May’s reading of 53.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2024 – Construction spending during May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.8 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised April estimate of $2,142.1 billion. The May figure is 6.4 percent above the May 2023 estimate of $2,011.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2024 – The June Manufacturing PMI registered 48..5 percent, down 0.2 percent from May. The manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.4 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 1.7-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 50.2 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 6/28/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in June but increased to 47.4 points up from 35.4 points in May. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in June.
Personal Income – Released 6/28/2024 – Personal income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 6/27/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “third” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3 percent. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports increased.
Durable Goods Released 6/27/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up four consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $283.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.2 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down following three consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $284.7 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive month of increases, drove the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $92.0 billion.
New Residential Sales Released 6/26/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 11.3 percent below the revised April rate of 698,000 and is 16.5 percent below the May 2023 estimate of 741,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2024 was $417,400. The average sales price was $520,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/25/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 101.3 to 100.4 in June following a one month increase and three consecutive months of decline. The expectations index fell from 74.9 to 73.0. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.
Existing Home Sales – Released 6/21/2024 – Existing home sales in May decreased 0.7% from April and fell 2.8% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.11 million in May seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $419,300.
This week we get data on Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Housing Starts.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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