Last week saw sentiment move decidedly negative with a focus on growth and recession concerns amid a stream of weak employment and manufacturing data punctuated by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls miss and spike in unemployment. Boost in Fed rate cut expectations did little to quell growth fears and emerging “bad news is bad news” narrative. Other overhangs this week included some disappointing earnings (pointing to weak consumer), geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, US election uncertainty, enhanced AI scrutiny, systematic selling pressure, and negative seasonality.
US equities ended lower after putting in a mixed performance last week. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq underperformed the other major indexes though equal-weight S&P again outperformed the official index. US growth concerns were a big drag on recent rotational trades into small caps and value/cyclical pockets of the market. Big tech was mostly lower amid some underwhelming earnings from Amazon and Microsoft. Treasuries were firmer last week with yields sharply down across the curve, 2/10 spread reached least inverted level in more than two years. Dollar index was down 1% with post-BoJ yen strength the big story in FX. Gold ended the week up 3.7%. Crude oil was down 4.7% on the week as soft China demand and US growth concerns outweighed Middle East tensions.
July FOMC decision left rates unchanged as broadly expected with no explicit indication of a September rate cut (though it seems to be a forgone conclusion now). Meeting saw several changes interpreted as leaning dovish. Powell noted recent data has added to policymaker confidence, saying a rate cut could be on the table as early as September. FOMC statement also characterized inflation as being only “somewhat elevated.” Analysts saw the major shift as Fed communicating that risks to both sides of its dual inflation/employment mandate have moved into better balance. After today’s jobs report, there is some analyst talk around the Fed being “behind the curve” with JPM’s Feroli today saying there could be a strong case to act before September. However, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee stressed there is much data to come and Fed should not make decisions based on one month’s data.
Middle East tensions were back in headlines this week after Hamas political leader Ismail Haiyeh was assassinated by Israel. That followed up reports this week that Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in Beirut. On Wednesday, NYT reported Iran’s supreme leader has ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to the assassination of Haniyeh. Oil rose over 5% on the news though gains have since faded amid unlikelihood of supply disruptions and new US growth concerns. Iran has yet to retaliate as of Friday afternoon. Additionally, OPEC+ left its policy unchanged at its latest committee meeting, dashing some hopes of a cut extension amid weak China demand.
Employment was a key focus amid growth slowdown fears. July nonfarm payrolls grew by 114K m/m vs consensus 175K and June was revised downward to 179K (was 206K). Unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3% vs consensus 4.1% (triggering recession-predicting Sahm Rule). Report noted Hurricane Beryl had no discernible impact on employment numbers. Report comes after yesterday’s jobless claims came in highest in nearly a year and July ISM Manufacturing Survey missed and remained in contraction territory (employment component lowest since Jun-20). FedWatch now predicting ~70% chance of a 50bp cut in September. Despite weak jobs report, June JOLTS job openings ticked lower, but came in higher than expected. Elsewhere, July consumer confidence was largely in line though consumers still concerned about inflation.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 3 this week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US –Down 73 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 8/2/2024– The US Economyadded 114k nonfarm jobs in July and the Unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents to $35.07. Hiring highlights include +55k Healthcare, +25k Construction, and +14k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents/0.2% to $35.07.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.4% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7%.
Average work week declined 0.1 to 34.2 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/1/2024 – In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 238,000 an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS –Released 7/30/2024 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 8/1/2024 – Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2024 – The July Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent, down 1.7 percent from 48.5 percent in June. The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.3 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 45.9 percent is a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to June’s figure of 48.5 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 7/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in July and decreased to 45.3 points down from 47.4 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in July.
Consumer Confidence – Released 7/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. The expectations index improved from 72.8 to 78.2. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for six consecutive months. Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future. Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Personal Income – Released 7/26/2024 – Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent).
Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 7/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The GDP “advance” estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down following four consecutive months on increases, decreased $18.6 billion or 6.6 percent to $264.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.0 percent. Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $19.6 billion or 20.5 percent to $75.8 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up four of the last five months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $288.1 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $3.5 billion or 3.8 percent to $95.3 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent below the revised May rate of 621,000 and is 7.4 percent below the June 2023 estimate of 666,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200.
Existing Home Sales – Released 7/23/2024 – Existing home sales in June decreased 5.4% from May and fell 5.4% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.89 million in June seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $426,900.
Housing Starts – Released 7/17/2024 – June housing starts came in at 1,353,000, 3.0% above the May estimate but is 4.4% below the June 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.4% above the May rate at $1,446,000 but is 3.1% below the June 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.6% in June. Manufacturing increased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in June was 1.6% higher than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.8% in June, a rate that is 0.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 7/16/2024– Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in June and are up 2.3% above June 2023.
Producer Price Index– Released 7/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 7/8/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 7/5/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.290 million units in June.
U.S. Trade Balance –Released 7/3/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion more than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $100.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $25.1 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in three months. The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5.0 percentage lower than May’s reading of 53.8 percent.
This week we get data on Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, and Consumer Credit.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 31, 2024
Last week saw sentiment move decidedly negative with a focus on growth and recession concerns amid a stream of weak employment and manufacturing data punctuated by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls miss and spike in unemployment. Boost in Fed rate cut expectations did little to quell growth fears and emerging “bad news is bad news” narrative. Other overhangs this week included some disappointing earnings (pointing to weak consumer), geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, US election uncertainty, enhanced AI scrutiny, systematic selling pressure, and negative seasonality.
US equities ended lower after putting in a mixed performance last week. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq underperformed the other major indexes though equal-weight S&P again outperformed the official index. US growth concerns were a big drag on recent rotational trades into small caps and value/cyclical pockets of the market. Big tech was mostly lower amid some underwhelming earnings from Amazon and Microsoft. Treasuries were firmer last week with yields sharply down across the curve, 2/10 spread reached least inverted level in more than two years. Dollar index was down 1% with post-BoJ yen strength the big story in FX. Gold ended the week up 3.7%. Crude oil was down 4.7% on the week as soft China demand and US growth concerns outweighed Middle East tensions.
July FOMC decision left rates unchanged as broadly expected with no explicit indication of a September rate cut (though it seems to be a forgone conclusion now). Meeting saw several changes interpreted as leaning dovish. Powell noted recent data has added to policymaker confidence, saying a rate cut could be on the table as early as September. FOMC statement also characterized inflation as being only “somewhat elevated.” Analysts saw the major shift as Fed communicating that risks to both sides of its dual inflation/employment mandate have moved into better balance. After today’s jobs report, there is some analyst talk around the Fed being “behind the curve” with JPM’s Feroli today saying there could be a strong case to act before September. However, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee stressed there is much data to come and Fed should not make decisions based on one month’s data.
Middle East tensions were back in headlines this week after Hamas political leader Ismail Haiyeh was assassinated by Israel. That followed up reports this week that Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in Beirut. On Wednesday, NYT reported Iran’s supreme leader has ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to the assassination of Haniyeh. Oil rose over 5% on the news though gains have since faded amid unlikelihood of supply disruptions and new US growth concerns. Iran has yet to retaliate as of Friday afternoon. Additionally, OPEC+ left its policy unchanged at its latest committee meeting, dashing some hopes of a cut extension amid weak China demand.
Employment was a key focus amid growth slowdown fears. July nonfarm payrolls grew by 114K m/m vs consensus 175K and June was revised downward to 179K (was 206K). Unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3% vs consensus 4.1% (triggering recession-predicting Sahm Rule). Report noted Hurricane Beryl had no discernible impact on employment numbers. Report comes after yesterday’s jobless claims came in highest in nearly a year and July ISM Manufacturing Survey missed and remained in contraction territory (employment component lowest since Jun-20). FedWatch now predicting ~70% chance of a 50bp cut in September. Despite weak jobs report, June JOLTS job openings ticked lower, but came in higher than expected. Elsewhere, July consumer confidence was largely in line though consumers still concerned about inflation.
Fixed Income:
Yield Curve:
July FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 3 this week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US –Down 73 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 8/2/2024 – The US Economyadded 114k nonfarm jobs in July and the Unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents to $35.07. Hiring highlights include +55k Healthcare, +25k Construction, and +14k Transportation and Warehousing.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/1/2024 – In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 238,000 an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/30/2024 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 8/1/2024 – Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2024 – The July Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent, down 1.7 percent from 48.5 percent in June. The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.3 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 45.9 percent is a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to June’s figure of 48.5 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 7/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in July and decreased to 45.3 points down from 47.4 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in July.
Consumer Confidence – Released 7/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. The expectations index improved from 72.8 to 78.2. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for six consecutive months. Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future. Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Personal Income – Released 7/26/2024 – Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent).
Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 7/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The GDP “advance” estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down following four consecutive months on increases, decreased $18.6 billion or 6.6 percent to $264.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.0 percent. Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $19.6 billion or 20.5 percent to $75.8 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up four of the last five months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $288.1 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $3.5 billion or 3.8 percent to $95.3 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent below the revised May rate of 621,000 and is 7.4 percent below the June 2023 estimate of 666,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200.
Existing Home Sales – Released 7/23/2024 – Existing home sales in June decreased 5.4% from May and fell 5.4% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.89 million in June seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $426,900.
Housing Starts – Released 7/17/2024 – June housing starts came in at 1,353,000, 3.0% above the May estimate but is 4.4% below the June 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.4% above the May rate at $1,446,000 but is 3.1% below the June 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.6% in June. Manufacturing increased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in June was 1.6% higher than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.8% in June, a rate that is 0.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 7/16/2024 – Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in June and are up 2.3% above June 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 7/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 7/8/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 7/5/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.290 million units in June.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/3/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion more than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $100.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $25.1 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in three months. The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5.0 percentage lower than May’s reading of 53.8 percent.
This week we get data on Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, and Consumer Credit.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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