The monthly jobs report came out Friday and beat expectations handily- The economy added 254,000 jobs, well above the 150K consensus. Additionally, after 7 months of downward revisions, the prior two months were revised up 72K. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%. Following the report, the expectations for a second 50bps rate cute dropped to zero, while the probability of a 25bps cut is sitting over 80% for November – CME FedWatch Tool
US equities were slightly higher this week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged out a fourth-straight week of gains after stocks reversed mid-week declines after Friday’s blowout September jobs report. Outperformers included China tech, energy, drug stores, truck manufacturers, casinos, E&C, ag chemicals, credit cards, and exchanges. Semis were also a bit of a laggard, while big tech was mixed. Underperformers included athletic apparel, trucking, parcels and logistics, regional banks, homebuilders, auto complex, beauty, and hospitals. Treasuries were weaker across the curve this week, with the selloff accelerating after the Friday jobs report as yields hit the highest levels level in a month. The dollar index was up 2.1%, the best week since Sep-22. Gold was fractionally lower for the week. Bitcoin futures were down 5.3%. WTI crude was up 9.1%, the biggest weekly gain since Mar 23’
There were a large number of moving pieces around the market this week. The bullish narrative continues to center around solid economic growth and a resilient labor market. Friday’s September payrolls beat added to support to the soft-landing narrative and helped push back against recession fears. Chinese stocks pulled back later in the week on some profit taking. Big tech shares were mixed, though AI optimism remains a key support, including comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang about Blackwell demand and the latest OpenAI funding round.
The latest Middle East tensions were the biggest overhang, included Israel striking Beirut and a potential retaliation after Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday, with many saying it could happen as soon as this weekend. Fed Chair Powell offered some hawkish commentary this week, saying the Fed does not feel in a hurry to cut rates quickly, and that two 25 bp cuts are the baseline. Geopolitical risk also sparked a ramp in oil prices last week, which could add risk to the soft-landing narrative and potentially put upward pressure on inflation. Other pieces of the bearish narrative included more focus on extended valuations, China growth concerns despite the latest fiscal stimulus announcements, and some cautious corporate takeaways.
Other data last week added to the soft-landing narrative, including JOLTS on Tuesday that beat and rebounded from the July print that was the lowest since Jan 21’. ISM Manufacturing came in slightly below consensus, including another decline in the employment index, though the prices index fell into contraction territory and the production index jumped five points. ISM Services also beat, rising to the highest level since Feb-23, though the employment component fell into contraction territory and the prices index rose.
Earnings season is kicks off in earnest this week, including Pepsi, Delta and Dominos. Some big-name financials will also announce, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Blackstone. The minutes to the September FOMC meeting are out Wednesday. Data this week includes September CPI on Thursday, followed by PPI and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down by 2 last week. There are 585 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 34 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 10/4/2024 – The US Economyadded 254k nonfarm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.36. Hiring highlights include +69k Food Services and drinking places, +45k Healthcare, and +31k Government.
Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents/0.4% to $35.36.
U3 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.2% to 7.7%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.
Average work week decreased 0.1 to 34.2 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/3/2024 – In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250 a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/1/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the third consecutive month indicating expansion in seven of the nine months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 3.4 percent higher than August’s reading of 51.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 10/1/2024 – Construction spending during August 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,131.9 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $2,133.9 billion. The August figure is 4.1 percent above the August 2023 estimate of $2,047.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/1/2024 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 47.2 percent, unchanged from August . The manufacturing sector contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month and the 22nd time in the last 23 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 44.6 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 49.8 percent is a 5.0-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 44.8 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 9/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September but increased to 46.6 points up from 46.1 points in August. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the tenth consecutive month in September. Chicago PMI has remained in contractionary territory for 24 of the past 25 months. In September order backlogs and employment improved slightly while supplier deliveries, new orders, and production reduced further. Also, prices paid remained elevated for the second consecutive month.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 9/27/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.210 million units in August.
Personal Income – Released 9/27/2024 – Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 9/26/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent and in the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending that were offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 9/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $289.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 9.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $14.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $289.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/25/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised July rate of 751,000 but is 9.8 percent above the August 2023 estimate of 652,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/24/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 105.6 to 98.7 in September. The expectations index declined 4.6 points to 81.7. Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.
Existing Home Sales – Released 9/19/2024 – Existing home sales in August decreased 2.5% from July and fell 4.2% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.86 million in August seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $416,700, up 3.1% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 9/18/2024 – August housing starts came in at 1,356,000, 9.6% below the July estimate and is 3.9% above the August 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.9% above the July rate at $1,406,000 but is 6.5% below the August 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.8% in August after falling 0.9% in July. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output was flat. Mining increased 0.8%. Total industrial production in August was the same as its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.0% in August, a rate that is 1.7% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 9/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.1% in August and are up 2.1% above August 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 9/9/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.0 percent in July. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.8 billion in July, up $5.8 billion from $73.0 billion in June. July exports were $266.6 billion, $1.3 billion more than June exports. July imports were $345.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than June imports. The July increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.6 billion to $103.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $24.3 billion.
This week we get data on the U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, CPI, and PPI.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 40, 2024
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The monthly jobs report came out Friday and beat expectations handily- The economy added 254,000 jobs, well above the 150K consensus. Additionally, after 7 months of downward revisions, the prior two months were revised up 72K. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%. Following the report, the expectations for a second 50bps rate cute dropped to zero, while the probability of a 25bps cut is sitting over 80% for November – CME FedWatch Tool
US equities were slightly higher this week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged out a fourth-straight week of gains after stocks reversed mid-week declines after Friday’s blowout September jobs report. Outperformers included China tech, energy, drug stores, truck manufacturers, casinos, E&C, ag chemicals, credit cards, and exchanges. Semis were also a bit of a laggard, while big tech was mixed. Underperformers included athletic apparel, trucking, parcels and logistics, regional banks, homebuilders, auto complex, beauty, and hospitals. Treasuries were weaker across the curve this week, with the selloff accelerating after the Friday jobs report as yields hit the highest levels level in a month. The dollar index was up 2.1%, the best week since Sep-22. Gold was fractionally lower for the week. Bitcoin futures were down 5.3%. WTI crude was up 9.1%, the biggest weekly gain since Mar 23’
There were a large number of moving pieces around the market this week. The bullish narrative continues to center around solid economic growth and a resilient labor market. Friday’s September payrolls beat added to support to the soft-landing narrative and helped push back against recession fears. Chinese stocks pulled back later in the week on some profit taking. Big tech shares were mixed, though AI optimism remains a key support, including comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang about Blackwell demand and the latest OpenAI funding round.
The latest Middle East tensions were the biggest overhang, included Israel striking Beirut and a potential retaliation after Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday, with many saying it could happen as soon as this weekend. Fed Chair Powell offered some hawkish commentary this week, saying the Fed does not feel in a hurry to cut rates quickly, and that two 25 bp cuts are the baseline. Geopolitical risk also sparked a ramp in oil prices last week, which could add risk to the soft-landing narrative and potentially put upward pressure on inflation. Other pieces of the bearish narrative included more focus on extended valuations, China growth concerns despite the latest fiscal stimulus announcements, and some cautious corporate takeaways.
Other data last week added to the soft-landing narrative, including JOLTS on Tuesday that beat and rebounded from the July print that was the lowest since Jan 21’. ISM Manufacturing came in slightly below consensus, including another decline in the employment index, though the prices index fell into contraction territory and the production index jumped five points. ISM Services also beat, rising to the highest level since Feb-23, though the employment component fell into contraction territory and the prices index rose.
Earnings season is kicks off in earnest this week, including Pepsi, Delta and Dominos. Some big-name financials will also announce, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Blackstone. The minutes to the September FOMC meeting are out Wednesday. Data this week includes September CPI on Thursday, followed by PPI and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down by 2 last week. There are 585 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 34 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 10/4/2024 – The US Economyadded 254k nonfarm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.36. Hiring highlights include +69k Food Services and drinking places, +45k Healthcare, and +31k Government.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/3/2024 – In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250 a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/1/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the third consecutive month indicating expansion in seven of the nine months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 3.4 percent higher than August’s reading of 51.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 10/1/2024 – Construction spending during August 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,131.9 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $2,133.9 billion. The August figure is 4.1 percent above the August 2023 estimate of $2,047.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/1/2024 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 47.2 percent, unchanged from August . The manufacturing sector contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month and the 22nd time in the last 23 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 44.6 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 49.8 percent is a 5.0-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 44.8 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 9/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September but increased to 46.6 points up from 46.1 points in August. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the tenth consecutive month in September. Chicago PMI has remained in contractionary territory for 24 of the past 25 months. In September order backlogs and employment improved slightly while supplier deliveries, new orders, and production reduced further. Also, prices paid remained elevated for the second consecutive month.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 9/27/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.210 million units in August.
Personal Income – Released 9/27/2024 – Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 9/26/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent and in the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending that were offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 9/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $289.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 9.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $14.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $289.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/25/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised July rate of 751,000 but is 9.8 percent above the August 2023 estimate of 652,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/24/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 105.6 to 98.7 in September. The expectations index declined 4.6 points to 81.7. Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.
Existing Home Sales – Released 9/19/2024 – Existing home sales in August decreased 2.5% from July and fell 4.2% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.86 million in August seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $416,700, up 3.1% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 9/18/2024 – August housing starts came in at 1,356,000, 9.6% below the July estimate and is 3.9% above the August 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.9% above the July rate at $1,406,000 but is 6.5% below the August 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.8% in August after falling 0.9% in July. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output was flat. Mining increased 0.8%. Total industrial production in August was the same as its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.0% in August, a rate that is 1.7% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 9/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.1% in August and are up 2.1% above August 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 9/9/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.0 percent in July. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.8 billion in July, up $5.8 billion from $73.0 billion in June. July exports were $266.6 billion, $1.3 billion more than June exports. July imports were $345.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than June imports. The July increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.6 billion to $103.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $24.3 billion.
This week we get data on the U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, CPI, and PPI.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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