Who is ready for the political ads to end? I know I am. Despite all the attention and coverage on the election, don’t forget about the FOMC meeting this week!
Major US equity indices were mostly lower last week. The S&P dropped for the second consecutive week (after a string of six weekly gains). On Monday, the Nasdaq logged a fresh all-time closing high, its first since July; however, it finished the week lower, breaking a streak of seven straight weekly gains.
Big tech was the notable drag amid mixed results from last week as five of the Mag 7 reported earnings, with the equal-weight RSP (1.0%) outperforming the cap-weighted S&P. Other laggards this week include autos/suppliers, energy, semis, beverages, pharma, casinos, A&D, and REITs. Outperformers included airlines, media, biotech, credit cards, banks, restaurants, cruise lines, and small-caps.
Earnings reports have come in hot and heavy. By the end of the week, some 70% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q3 results, with the blended y/y EPS growth rate standing at 5.1% (better than the 4.3% expected at the end of the quarter). However, earnings beat rates and beat magnitudes are running below one- and five-year averages.
Treasuries were weaker, particularly in the belly of the curve; yields moved higher again despite some midweek stabilization. The market absorbed $183B in new issuance; last week’s Q4 Treasury refunding announcement came in unchanged q/q at $125B, as expected. The dollar was little changed overall; DXY +0.1%. The greenback was a laggard to sterling but fared better on the yen and euro crosses. Gold was down 0.2%, a slight drop after three straight weekly gains. Oil was lower, with WTI crude settling down 3.2% despite later-week concerns about another possible Iranian strike on Israel.
Investors processed several moving pieces last week. While the underlying consensus continues to see a path to a soft-/no-landing scenario, there were several factors that contributed to a more defensive tone. Earnings reports dominated the calendar, with some mixed takeaways from the five Mag 7 names on the schedule. Economic updates were positive in the main, though Friday’s October nonfarm payrolls report was weak (though noise had been expected from recent weather and strike disruptions). Treasury yields continued their backup, which has been running pretty consistently since the Fed’s September rate cut. Hand in hand with this, election uncertainty continued to hang over the market, though there has long been a sense that neither of the major-party candidates is likely to push for tighter fiscal discipline.
Last week’s big economic report was Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release for October, showing only 12K in job gains for the month (and revising down August and September by a combined 112K jobs). While previews had flagged downside risk from recent hurricanes and strikes, the headline was well below even the low end of analyst expectations and may be a sign of continued cooling in the labor market. Elsewhere, October ISM manufacturing printed below consensus, with new orders remaining in contraction but prices component returning to expansionary territory. But on the positive side of the ledger, October consumer confidence came in well ahead of consensus and reflected a notable improvement in respondents’ labor-market outlooks. Initial and continuing jobless claims were both lower than consensus. The flash read for Q3 GDP showed continued growth with help from strong consumer spending.
Overall, sentiment has remained tilted toward bullish, helped by the well-worn themes of earnings growth, solid economic data, resilient consumer spending, AI optimism, and expectations for further Fed easing. Additionally, bulls have been pointing to favorable seasonality, the reopening of corporate buyback windows, and the unwinding of election-related hedges after Election Day. But at the same time, bears have been ready to point to blemishes in some high-profile earnings reports, earnings beat rates/magnitudes coming in below recent averages, an unsettled geopolitical landscape, and looming fiscal challenges that have helped drive up Treasury yields.
Election Day in the US is on Tuesday. The uncertainties of what is still very much a 50-50 race have been weighing on the market, though note the final results may not be immediately known. This week will also see the November FOMC meeting (with the decision pushed to Thursday 7-Nov because of Election Day). Market expectations have been firmly behind a 25bp cut for some time amid ongoing soft-landing optimism and Fedspeak advocating a deliberate easing path. The Q3 earnings season continues, with 103 S&P constituents on the calendar. It will be fairly light on the economics front, with ISM Services (Tuesday) and preliminary UMich consumer sentiment (Friday) among the main releases. The Fed will also release its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Monday. China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) will also meet next week and could provide more detail on stimulus measures.
The Baker Hughes rig count was flat last week. There are 585 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 33 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
October Jobs Report– BLS Summary– Released 11/1/2024 – The US Economyadded 12k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.46. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +40k Government, -49k Professional and Business Services, and -46k Manufacturing.
Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents/0.4% to $35.46.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.7%.
The labor force participation rate was relatively unchanged at 62.6%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/31/2024 – In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 236,500 an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in Septemeber 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/29/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/1/2024 – Construction spending during September 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.8 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised August estimate of $2,146.0 billion. The September figure is 4.6 percent above the September 2023 estimate of $2,055.2 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/1/2024 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.5 percent, 0.7 percent lower Compared to September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (46.2 percent) is 3.6 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 49.8 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 10/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in October and fell to 41.6 from 46.6 points in September. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 11th successive month in October, and at a solid pace, marking the steepest decline since May.
Personal Income – Released 10/31/2024 – Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).
Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 10/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Consumer Confidence – Released 10/29/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 99.2 to 108.7 in October. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased by 6.3 points to 89.1, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 10/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.8% to $284.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $287.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $94.4 billion.
New Residential Sales– Released 10/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000.
Existing Home Sales – Released 10/23/2024 – Existing home sales in September decreased 1.0% from August and fell 3.5% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.84 million in September seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,500, up 3.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 10/18/2024 – September housing starts came in at 1,354,000, 0.5% below the August estimate and is 0.7% above the September 2023 rate. Building permits were 2.9% below the August rate at $1,470,000 and is 5.7% below the September 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 10/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in September after gaining 0.3% in August. Manufacturing decreased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining decreased 0.6%. For the third quarter, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 0.6%.Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.5% in September, a rate that is 2.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 10/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in September and are up 1.7% above September 2023.
Producer Price Index– Released 10/11/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in August and July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/10/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in August and 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 10/8/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $70.4 billion in August, sown $8.5 billion from $78.9 billion in July. August exports were $271.8 billion, $5.3 billion more than July exports. August imports were $342.2 billion, $3.2 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.4 billion to $94.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.4 billion.
Consumer Credit – Released 10/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1 percent in August. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 10/4/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.775 million units in September.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the third consecutive month indicating expansion in seven of the nine months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 3.4 percent higher than August’s reading of 51.5 percent.
This week we get data on Services PMI, Consumer Credit, and the U.S. Trade Balance.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 44, 2024
Election Week!
Who is ready for the political ads to end? I know I am. Despite all the attention and coverage on the election, don’t forget about the FOMC meeting this week!
Major US equity indices were mostly lower last week. The S&P dropped for the second consecutive week (after a string of six weekly gains). On Monday, the Nasdaq logged a fresh all-time closing high, its first since July; however, it finished the week lower, breaking a streak of seven straight weekly gains.
Big tech was the notable drag amid mixed results from last week as five of the Mag 7 reported earnings, with the equal-weight RSP (1.0%) outperforming the cap-weighted S&P. Other laggards this week include autos/suppliers, energy, semis, beverages, pharma, casinos, A&D, and REITs. Outperformers included airlines, media, biotech, credit cards, banks, restaurants, cruise lines, and small-caps.
Earnings reports have come in hot and heavy. By the end of the week, some 70% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q3 results, with the blended y/y EPS growth rate standing at 5.1% (better than the 4.3% expected at the end of the quarter). However, earnings beat rates and beat magnitudes are running below one- and five-year averages.
Treasuries were weaker, particularly in the belly of the curve; yields moved higher again despite some midweek stabilization. The market absorbed $183B in new issuance; last week’s Q4 Treasury refunding announcement came in unchanged q/q at $125B, as expected. The dollar was little changed overall; DXY +0.1%. The greenback was a laggard to sterling but fared better on the yen and euro crosses. Gold was down 0.2%, a slight drop after three straight weekly gains. Oil was lower, with WTI crude settling down 3.2% despite later-week concerns about another possible Iranian strike on Israel.
Investors processed several moving pieces last week. While the underlying consensus continues to see a path to a soft-/no-landing scenario, there were several factors that contributed to a more defensive tone. Earnings reports dominated the calendar, with some mixed takeaways from the five Mag 7 names on the schedule. Economic updates were positive in the main, though Friday’s October nonfarm payrolls report was weak (though noise had been expected from recent weather and strike disruptions). Treasury yields continued their backup, which has been running pretty consistently since the Fed’s September rate cut. Hand in hand with this, election uncertainty continued to hang over the market, though there has long been a sense that neither of the major-party candidates is likely to push for tighter fiscal discipline.
Last week’s big economic report was Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release for October, showing only 12K in job gains for the month (and revising down August and September by a combined 112K jobs). While previews had flagged downside risk from recent hurricanes and strikes, the headline was well below even the low end of analyst expectations and may be a sign of continued cooling in the labor market. Elsewhere, October ISM manufacturing printed below consensus, with new orders remaining in contraction but prices component returning to expansionary territory. But on the positive side of the ledger, October consumer confidence came in well ahead of consensus and reflected a notable improvement in respondents’ labor-market outlooks. Initial and continuing jobless claims were both lower than consensus. The flash read for Q3 GDP showed continued growth with help from strong consumer spending.
Overall, sentiment has remained tilted toward bullish, helped by the well-worn themes of earnings growth, solid economic data, resilient consumer spending, AI optimism, and expectations for further Fed easing. Additionally, bulls have been pointing to favorable seasonality, the reopening of corporate buyback windows, and the unwinding of election-related hedges after Election Day. But at the same time, bears have been ready to point to blemishes in some high-profile earnings reports, earnings beat rates/magnitudes coming in below recent averages, an unsettled geopolitical landscape, and looming fiscal challenges that have helped drive up Treasury yields.
Election Day in the US is on Tuesday. The uncertainties of what is still very much a 50-50 race have been weighing on the market, though note the final results may not be immediately known. This week will also see the November FOMC meeting (with the decision pushed to Thursday 7-Nov because of Election Day). Market expectations have been firmly behind a 25bp cut for some time amid ongoing soft-landing optimism and Fedspeak advocating a deliberate easing path. The Q3 earnings season continues, with 103 S&P constituents on the calendar. It will be fairly light on the economics front, with ISM Services (Tuesday) and preliminary UMich consumer sentiment (Friday) among the main releases. The Fed will also release its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Monday. China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) will also meet next week and could provide more detail on stimulus measures.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was flat last week. There are 585 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 33 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
October Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/1/2024 – The US Economy added 12k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.46. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +40k Government, -49k Professional and Business Services, and -46k Manufacturing.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/31/2024 – In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 236,500 an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in Septemeber 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/29/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 11/1/2024 – Construction spending during September 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.8 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised August estimate of $2,146.0 billion. The September figure is 4.6 percent above the September 2023 estimate of $2,055.2 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/1/2024 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.5 percent, 0.7 percent lower Compared to September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (46.2 percent) is 3.6 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 49.8 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 10/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in October and fell to 41.6 from 46.6 points in September. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 11th successive month in October, and at a solid pace, marking the steepest decline since May.
Personal Income – Released 10/31/2024 – Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).
Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 10/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Consumer Confidence – Released 10/29/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 99.2 to 108.7 in October. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased by 6.3 points to 89.1, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 10/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.8% to $284.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $287.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $94.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 10/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000.
Existing Home Sales – Released 10/23/2024 – Existing home sales in September decreased 1.0% from August and fell 3.5% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.84 million in September seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,500, up 3.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 10/18/2024 – September housing starts came in at 1,354,000, 0.5% below the August estimate and is 0.7% above the September 2023 rate. Building permits were 2.9% below the August rate at $1,470,000 and is 5.7% below the September 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 10/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in September after gaining 0.3% in August. Manufacturing decreased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining decreased 0.6%. For the third quarter, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 0.6%.Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.5% in September, a rate that is 2.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 10/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in September and are up 1.7% above September 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 10/11/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in August and July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/10/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in August and 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 10/8/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $70.4 billion in August, sown $8.5 billion from $78.9 billion in July. August exports were $271.8 billion, $5.3 billion more than July exports. August imports were $342.2 billion, $3.2 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.4 billion to $94.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.4 billion.
Consumer Credit – Released 10/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1 percent in August. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 10/4/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.775 million units in September.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the third consecutive month indicating expansion in seven of the nine months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 3.4 percent higher than August’s reading of 51.5 percent.
This week we get data on Services PMI, Consumer Credit, and the U.S. Trade Balance.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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