Equity markets rallied in November. The S&P finished higher for the ninth time in the last eleven months. The index ended November up ~26.5% for the year, on track for consecutive annual gains of at least 20% for the first time since 1995-1998. The Russell 2000 was the standout at the index level, posting its biggest monthly gain since December 2023. Treasuries were narrowly mixed with 2-year yields up just over 2 bp and 10-year yields down nearly 10 bp. The dollar index gained 1.8% following a 3.2% rally in October. Gold lost nearly 2.5%, snapping a big four month winning streak during which it gained nearly 18%. Bitcoin futures surged 39%, the biggest monthly increase since February when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly 47%. WTI crude fell ~1%.
The big tailwind for equities in November was the quick and clear/decisive election outcome that helped foster an unwinding of crowded downside hedges and drove a VIX retracement that also triggered systematic fund buying. The fact that Trump prevailed provided additional support for the post-election move given the animal spirits and deregulation dynamics. In addition, the GOP sweep opened the door for a corporate tax cut that could boost S&P 500 EPS by 4-5%. The removal of the election overhang also put some focus back on very favorable seasonality into year-end and the resumption of (elevated) corporate buyback activity. Positive macro surprise momentum was another bullish talking point for November with the Citi US Economic Surprise Index bumping up against the 2024 highs seen in February. Strong results and upbeat Blackwell launch commentary from NVDA +4.1% provided further support for the AI secular growth theme, while the beat and raise from WMT +12.9% played into the consumer resilience theme. In addition, expectations for low double-digit earnings growth in Q4, which would mark the best performance in three years, held fairly steady. The Street is also looking for earnings momentum in 2025 with all four quarters expected to see double-digit growth. While Trump’s cabinet picks generated some very mixed reactions, the Treasury Secretary pick (Bessent) that mattered most for the market was very well received
While the path of least resistance remained higher in November, there were still a number of concerns. The biggest seemed to revolve around stretched valuations, with S&P 500 trailing P/E at over 26x, the fourth highest in the last 125 years (per BofA) and US trading at a record P/E premium to the MSCI World ex-US of nearly 60% (per SocGen). While the bond yield backup was the big story in October, select upward pressure on yields in November was another area of scrutiny. Some of this was a function of macro surprise momentum, though heightened deficit concerns surrounding the GOP sweep and potential for Trump tariffs to derail already frustrating disinflation tractionwere the bigger issues. This brought more talk about a higher term premium and neutral rate, while Fed Chair Powell and other officials left the door open for a December pause. Trump tariffs were also flagged as a likely growth drag. Even with the broader enthusiasm surrounding a shift toward deregulation in the next Trump administration, thedifficult regulatory backdrop remained in focus with big tech still in the crosshairs. The DoJ said Google should have to sell off its Chrome unit (and other proposed remedies were harsher than expected) to address its monopolization of online search. Geopolitical tensions were also elevated as Ukraine carried out its first strike in Russian territory with missiles supplied by the US, while Russia updated its nuclear doctrine and fired its first ICBM at Ukraine since its 2022 invasion.
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 582 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 43 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 11/27/2024 – In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 217,000 a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
October Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/1/2024 – The US Economyadded 12k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.46. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +40k Government, -49k Professional and Business Services, and -46k Manufacturing.
Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents/0.4% to $35.46.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.7%.
The labor force participation rate was relatively unchanged at 62.6%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/29/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Chicago PMI – Released 11/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in November and fell to 40.2 from 41.6points in October. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 12th successive month in November.
Personal Income – Released 11/27/2024 – Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Second Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 11/27/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “advance” estimate which also had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment as well as downward revisions to exports and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Durable Goods – Released 11/27/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up following two months of decline, increased $0.7 billion or 0.2% to $286.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.4% September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5% to $97.1 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 11/26/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 109.6 to 111.7 in November. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market condition, ticked up 0.4 points to 92.3, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income.
New Residential Sales – Released 11/26/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.3 percent below the revised September rate of 738,000 and is 9.4 percent below the October 2023 estimate of 673,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 11/21/2024 – Existing home sales in October increased 3.4% from September and increased 2.9% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 3.96 million in October seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $407,200, up 4.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 11/19/2024 – October housing starts came in at 1,311,000, 3.1% below the September estimate and is 4.0% below the October 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.6% below the September rate at $1,416,000 and is 7.7% below the October 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 11/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% in September. Manufacturing decreased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.1% in October, a rate that is 2.6% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 11/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in October and are up 2.8% above October 2023.
Producer Price Index– Released 11/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.
Consumer Price Index – Released 11/13/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing the same as in each of the last three months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 11/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 percent in September. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/5/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 billion in September, up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion less than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, $10.3 billion less than August imports. The September increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $14.2 billion to $109.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 11/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the fourth consecutive month indicating expansion in eight of the ten months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 56.0 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 1.1 percent higher than September’s reading of 54.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 11/1/2024 – Construction spending during September 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.8 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised August estimate of $2,146.0 billion. The September figure is 4.6 percent above the September 2023 estimate of $2,055.2 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/1/2024 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.5 percent, 0.7 percent lower Compared to September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (46.2 percent) is 3.6 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 49.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 10/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.768 million units in September.
This week we get data on Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Services PMI, U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, JOLTS, and the November Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 48, 2024
Equity markets rallied in November. The S&P finished higher for the ninth time in the last eleven months. The index ended November up ~26.5% for the year, on track for consecutive annual gains of at least 20% for the first time since 1995-1998. The Russell 2000 was the standout at the index level, posting its biggest monthly gain since December 2023. Treasuries were narrowly mixed with 2-year yields up just over 2 bp and 10-year yields down nearly 10 bp. The dollar index gained 1.8% following a 3.2% rally in October. Gold lost nearly 2.5%, snapping a big four month winning streak during which it gained nearly 18%. Bitcoin futures surged 39%, the biggest monthly increase since February when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly 47%. WTI crude fell ~1%.
The big tailwind for equities in November was the quick and clear/decisive election outcome that helped foster an unwinding of crowded downside hedges and drove a VIX retracement that also triggered systematic fund buying. The fact that Trump prevailed provided additional support for the post-election move given the animal spirits and deregulation dynamics. In addition, the GOP sweep opened the door for a corporate tax cut that could boost S&P 500 EPS by 4-5%. The removal of the election overhang also put some focus back on very favorable seasonality into year-end and the resumption of (elevated) corporate buyback activity. Positive macro surprise momentum was another bullish talking point for November with the Citi US Economic Surprise Index bumping up against the 2024 highs seen in February. Strong results and upbeat Blackwell launch commentary from NVDA +4.1% provided further support for the AI secular growth theme, while the beat and raise from WMT +12.9% played into the consumer resilience theme. In addition, expectations for low double-digit earnings growth in Q4, which would mark the best performance in three years, held fairly steady. The Street is also looking for earnings momentum in 2025 with all four quarters expected to see double-digit growth. While Trump’s cabinet picks generated some very mixed reactions, the Treasury Secretary pick (Bessent) that mattered most for the market was very well received
While the path of least resistance remained higher in November, there were still a number of concerns. The biggest seemed to revolve around stretched valuations, with S&P 500 trailing P/E at over 26x, the fourth highest in the last 125 years (per BofA) and US trading at a record P/E premium to the MSCI World ex-US of nearly 60% (per SocGen). While the bond yield backup was the big story in October, select upward pressure on yields in November was another area of scrutiny. Some of this was a function of macro surprise momentum, though heightened deficit concerns surrounding the GOP sweep and potential for Trump tariffs to derail already frustrating disinflation tractionwere the bigger issues. This brought more talk about a higher term premium and neutral rate, while Fed Chair Powell and other officials left the door open for a December pause. Trump tariffs were also flagged as a likely growth drag. Even with the broader enthusiasm surrounding a shift toward deregulation in the next Trump administration, thedifficult regulatory backdrop remained in focus with big tech still in the crosshairs. The DoJ said Google should have to sell off its Chrome unit (and other proposed remedies were harsher than expected) to address its monopolization of online search. Geopolitical tensions were also elevated as Ukraine carried out its first strike in Russian territory with missiles supplied by the US, while Russia updated its nuclear doctrine and fired its first ICBM at Ukraine since its 2022 invasion.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 582 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 43 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 11/27/2024 – In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 217,000 a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
October Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/1/2024 – The US Economy added 12k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.46. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +40k Government, -49k Professional and Business Services, and -46k Manufacturing.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/29/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Chicago PMI – Released 11/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in November and fell to 40.2 from 41.6points in October. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 12th successive month in November.
Personal Income – Released 11/27/2024 – Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Second Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 11/27/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “advance” estimate which also had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment as well as downward revisions to exports and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Durable Goods – Released 11/27/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up following two months of decline, increased $0.7 billion or 0.2% to $286.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.4% September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5% to $97.1 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 11/26/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 109.6 to 111.7 in November. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market condition, ticked up 0.4 points to 92.3, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income.
New Residential Sales – Released 11/26/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.3 percent below the revised September rate of 738,000 and is 9.4 percent below the October 2023 estimate of 673,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 11/21/2024 – Existing home sales in October increased 3.4% from September and increased 2.9% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 3.96 million in October seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $407,200, up 4.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 11/19/2024 – October housing starts came in at 1,311,000, 3.1% below the September estimate and is 4.0% below the October 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.6% below the September rate at $1,416,000 and is 7.7% below the October 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 11/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% in September. Manufacturing decreased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.1% in October, a rate that is 2.6% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 11/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in October and are up 2.8% above October 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 11/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.
Consumer Price Index – Released 11/13/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing the same as in each of the last three months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 11/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 percent in September. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/5/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 billion in September, up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion less than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, $10.3 billion less than August imports. The September increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $14.2 billion to $109.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 11/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the fourth consecutive month indicating expansion in eight of the ten months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 56.0 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 1.1 percent higher than September’s reading of 54.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 11/1/2024 – Construction spending during September 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.8 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised August estimate of $2,146.0 billion. The September figure is 4.6 percent above the September 2023 estimate of $2,055.2 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/1/2024 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.5 percent, 0.7 percent lower Compared to September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (46.2 percent) is 3.6 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 49.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 10/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.768 million units in September.
This week we get data on Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Services PMI, U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, JOLTS, and the November Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Categories:
Tags: