Stocks were lower last week with higher rates and stronger dollar amid the latest batch of strong economic data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a second-straight week (and the S&P off for the fourth week in the past five). The small-cap Russell 2000 also broke two-straight weekly gains, and is now back to pre-election levels. Following Friday’s blowout December payrolls report, the 2Y yield touched the highest level since October and 10Y highest since Nov-23. The dollar index also nearly touched 110, the highest since Nov-22. The push higher in yields put pressure on some megacap tech names given concerns around elevated valuations, while a strategists have increasingly pointed to dollar strength as a growing earnings/revenue headwind into Q4 earnings.
Friday’s December payrolls was the big data event of the week. Headline payroll growth of 256K was well ahead of consensus for 150-160K, while the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1pp to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings were In line at 0.3% m/m, though annualized 3.9% was a bit lighter than the 4.0% pace. Friday’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment was in line with consensus, though 1Y inflation expectations jumped 0.5pp to 3.3%, the highest since May-24, while longer-run (5-10Y) inflation expectations were up 0.3pp to 3.3%, the highest since Jun-2008. November JOLTS job openings were also posted a surprise increase, though hiring rates slowed and the quits rate fell to the lowest level since mid-2020.
The data last week sparked a meaningful hawkish shift in the Fed rate cut outlook. After payrolls, market pricing showed less than 30 bp of rate cuts for 2025, down from nearly 50 bp in recent days, with the next cut priced in for October. Bank of America economists said after the payrolls report that the no longer see any rate cuts for 2025, though a high bar for rate cuts since Fed officials still see rates as restrictive. Goldman Sachs economists also cut their fed cut forecast from three to two for 2025, with the first in June.
Even before Treasuries sold off further on Friday, Bloomberg noted traders have increasingly been positioning for the 10Y to spike back up to 5%, a level not seen since Oct-23. Beyond the upside surprises in data, the backup in yields was also attributed to factors including ongoing concerns around debt/deficits, concerns around sticky inflation, rising Treasury/corporate bond issuance, and some estimates that the term premium has risen to the highest in a decade.
The week included some hawkish Fedspeak, including Governor Bowman, who said December should be last cut in cycle. However, Governor Waller offered some dovish comments earlier in the week, saying he believes more cuts will be appropriate on disinflation traction, and that he doesn’t expect Trump’s tariff policies to be inflationary. The week’s December FOMC meeting minutes were seen as less hawkish than the post-meeting takeaways, though flagged recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation and potential impacts from Trump trade and immigration policy.
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 5 last week. There are 584 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 35 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 1/10/2025 – The US Economyadded 256k nonfarm jobs in December and the Unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.69. Hiring highlights include +46k Healthcare, +43k Retail Trade, +33k Government, and +23k in Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.69.
U3 unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.2% to 7.5%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 1/8/2025 – In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 213,000 a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 1/8/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent in November. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 1/7/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $5.4 billion to $103.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $25.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 1/7/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the sixth consecutive month indicating expansion in ten of the twelve months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent 2.0 percent higher than November’s reading of 52.1 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/3/2025 – The December Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 percent, 0.9 percent higher compared to November. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 52.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 50.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 3.5 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/2/2024 – Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, almost unchanged from the October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of $2,090.7 billion.
Chicago PMI– Released 12/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in December and fell to 36.9 from 40.2 points in November. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 13th successive month in December. New orders fell 13.5 points to the second lowest since May 2020, with more than half of respondents reporting fewer new orders for the first time since June 2020.
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.9 billion or 2.9% to $95.5 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 111.7 to 104.7 in December. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.
New Residential Sales – Released 12/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/20/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.521 million units in November.
Personal Income – Released 12/20/2024 – Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 12/19/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “second” and “advance” estimates which both had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Existing Home Sales –Released 12/19/2024 – Existing home sales in November increased 4.8% from October and increased 6.1% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.15 million in November seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $406,100, up 4.7% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 12/18/2024 – November housing starts came in at 1,289,000, 1.8% below the October estimate and is 14.6% below the November 2023 rate. Building permits were 6.1% above the October rate at $1,419,000 but is 0.2% below the November 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.1% in November after falling 0.4% in October. Manufacturing increased 0.2%. Utilities output decreased 1.3%. Mining decreased 0.9%. Total industrial production in November was 0.9% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 12/17/2024– Headline retail sales were up 0.7% in November and are up 3.8% above November 2023.
Producer Price Index– Released 12/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
Consumer Price Index –Released 12/11/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in each of the last four months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
This week we get data on CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 2, 2024
Stocks were lower last week with higher rates and stronger dollar amid the latest batch of strong economic data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a second-straight week (and the S&P off for the fourth week in the past five). The small-cap Russell 2000 also broke two-straight weekly gains, and is now back to pre-election levels. Following Friday’s blowout December payrolls report, the 2Y yield touched the highest level since October and 10Y highest since Nov-23. The dollar index also nearly touched 110, the highest since Nov-22. The push higher in yields put pressure on some megacap tech names given concerns around elevated valuations, while a strategists have increasingly pointed to dollar strength as a growing earnings/revenue headwind into Q4 earnings.
Friday’s December payrolls was the big data event of the week. Headline payroll growth of 256K was well ahead of consensus for 150-160K, while the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1pp to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings were In line at 0.3% m/m, though annualized 3.9% was a bit lighter than the 4.0% pace. Friday’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment was in line with consensus, though 1Y inflation expectations jumped 0.5pp to 3.3%, the highest since May-24, while longer-run (5-10Y) inflation expectations were up 0.3pp to 3.3%, the highest since Jun-2008. November JOLTS job openings were also posted a surprise increase, though hiring rates slowed and the quits rate fell to the lowest level since mid-2020.
The data last week sparked a meaningful hawkish shift in the Fed rate cut outlook. After payrolls, market pricing showed less than 30 bp of rate cuts for 2025, down from nearly 50 bp in recent days, with the next cut priced in for October. Bank of America economists said after the payrolls report that the no longer see any rate cuts for 2025, though a high bar for rate cuts since Fed officials still see rates as restrictive. Goldman Sachs economists also cut their fed cut forecast from three to two for 2025, with the first in June.
Even before Treasuries sold off further on Friday, Bloomberg noted traders have increasingly been positioning for the 10Y to spike back up to 5%, a level not seen since Oct-23. Beyond the upside surprises in data, the backup in yields was also attributed to factors including ongoing concerns around debt/deficits, concerns around sticky inflation, rising Treasury/corporate bond issuance, and some estimates that the term premium has risen to the highest in a decade.
The week included some hawkish Fedspeak, including Governor Bowman, who said December should be last cut in cycle. However, Governor Waller offered some dovish comments earlier in the week, saying he believes more cuts will be appropriate on disinflation traction, and that he doesn’t expect Trump’s tariff policies to be inflationary. The week’s December FOMC meeting minutes were seen as less hawkish than the post-meeting takeaways, though flagged recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation and potential impacts from Trump trade and immigration policy.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 5 last week. There are 584 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 35 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 1/10/2025 – The US Economy added 256k nonfarm jobs in December and the Unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.69. Hiring highlights include +46k Healthcare, +43k Retail Trade, +33k Government, and +23k in Social Assistance.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 1/8/2025 – In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 213,000 a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 1/8/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent in November. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 1/7/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $5.4 billion to $103.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $25.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 1/7/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the sixth consecutive month indicating expansion in ten of the twelve months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent 2.0 percent higher than November’s reading of 52.1 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/3/2025 – The December Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 percent, 0.9 percent higher compared to November. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 52.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 50.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 3.5 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/2/2024 – Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, almost unchanged from the October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of $2,090.7 billion.
Chicago PMI – Released 12/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in December and fell to 36.9 from 40.2 points in November. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 13th successive month in December. New orders fell 13.5 points to the second lowest since May 2020, with more than half of respondents reporting fewer new orders for the first time since June 2020.
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.9 billion or 2.9% to $95.5 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 111.7 to 104.7 in December. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.
New Residential Sales – Released 12/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/20/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.521 million units in November.
Personal Income – Released 12/20/2024 – Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 12/19/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “second” and “advance” estimates which both had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Existing Home Sales – Released 12/19/2024 – Existing home sales in November increased 4.8% from October and increased 6.1% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.15 million in November seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $406,100, up 4.7% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 12/18/2024 – November housing starts came in at 1,289,000, 1.8% below the October estimate and is 14.6% below the November 2023 rate. Building permits were 6.1% above the October rate at $1,419,000 but is 0.2% below the November 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.1% in November after falling 0.4% in October. Manufacturing increased 0.2%. Utilities output decreased 1.3%. Mining decreased 0.9%. Total industrial production in November was 0.9% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 12/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.7% in November and are up 3.8% above November 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 12/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
Consumer Price Index – Released 12/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in each of the last four months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
This week we get data on CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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