The market had another week of risk-off sentiment with major focus on some ongoing concerns around macro softening punctuated by volatile tariff headlines. Concerns about global trade war remain key overhang with new US tariffs going into effect on March 4th, while China, Canada announced retaliatory measures. However, some tariff-worry reprieve was seen after Trump confirmed he would grant one-month tariff relief to Mexico for all products that fall under the USMCA. Still, limited and seemingly shifting nature of the tariff relief continued to draw market scrutiny as did overall uncertainty around White House trade strategy.
This risk off sentiment pushed US equites sharply lower with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell extending the prior week’s slides. Big Tech and the Mag 7 were a major drag, with Tesla and Nvidia the notable decliners. Treasuries were mixed with yield curve steepening. The dollar was sharply weaker on the major crosses. Bitcoin futures were up 4% as Trump signed order to establish strategic bitcoin reserve. Gold was up 2.3%. WTI crude was down 3.9%, its seventh consecutive weekly decline.
This week marks 25 years since the height of the internet bubble and Five years since national Covid shutdown.
Last week was busy in economic data. February nonfarm payrolls grew by 151K vs consensus 150-160K, though January revised lower while unemployment rate ticked slightly higher m/m. Federal government jobs dropped 10K m/m, roughly in-line with analyst previews, however, Citi said the bulk of DOGE layoffs will not hit until May through September. Elsewhere, February ISM Manufacturing dropped with new orders back in contraction territory while employment component fell and prices accelerated with respondents flagging tariff worries. Meanwhile, ISM services was more positive, registering expansion in both new orders and employment. Initial claims ticked lower w/w. Challenger job cuts for February spiked 103% y/y, though a third of this was attributed to DOGE efforts toward cutting federal employee numbers.
On the geopolitical front, US decided to stop all aid going to Ukraine, keeping diplomatic tensions high. Some hope for a ceasefire after Bloomberg reported today Russia may be open to a ceasefire with Ukraine though not without conditions. Developments come ahead of this week’s planned US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Trump has been threatening harsher sanctions on both Russia and Iran recently with oil in focus. Though prospect of harsher oil sanctions was not enough to stop WTI from touching three-year lows this week after OPEC announced they will hike production and April.
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 1 last week. There are 593 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 36 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture February Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 3/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 151k nonfarm jobs in February and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.93. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +21k Financial, and +18k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.93.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.5% to 8.0%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.4%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.1 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 3/6/2025 – In the week ending March 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250 an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 2/4/2025 – The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 3/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent in January. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 3/6/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 3/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the eighth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent 0.7 percent higher than January’s reading of 52.8 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 3/3/2025 – The February Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percent lower compared to January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index fell into contraction territory, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/3/2025 – Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 2/28/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.609 million units in January.
Chicago PMI– Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
Personal Income – Released 2/28/2025 – Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 2/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
Durable Goods – Released 2/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two months of decline, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $8.6 billion or 9.8% to $96.5 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 2/26/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 2/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 104.1 to 98.3 in February. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.
Existing Home Sales –Released 2/21/2025 –Existing home sales in January decreased 4.9% from December but increased 2.0% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.08 million in January seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $396,900, up 4.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 2/19/2025 – January housing starts came in at 1,366,000, 9.8% below the December estimate and is 0.7% below the January 2024 rate. Building permits were 0.1% above the December rate at $1,483,000 but is 1.7% below the January 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 2/14/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.5% in January after rising 1.0% in December. Manufacturing decreased 0.1%. Utilities output increased 7.2%. Mining decreased 1.2%. Total industrial production in January was 2.0% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.8% in January, a rate that is 1.8% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 2/14/2025– Headline retail sales were down 0.9% in January but are up 4.2% above January 2024.
Producer Price Index– Released 2/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.5 percent in December and 0.2 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
Consumer Price Index –Released 2/12/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
This week we get data on CPI, PPI, and JOLTS.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 10, 2024
The market had another week of risk-off sentiment with major focus on some ongoing concerns around macro softening punctuated by volatile tariff headlines. Concerns about global trade war remain key overhang with new US tariffs going into effect on March 4th, while China, Canada announced retaliatory measures. However, some tariff-worry reprieve was seen after Trump confirmed he would grant one-month tariff relief to Mexico for all products that fall under the USMCA. Still, limited and seemingly shifting nature of the tariff relief continued to draw market scrutiny as did overall uncertainty around White House trade strategy.
This risk off sentiment pushed US equites sharply lower with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell extending the prior week’s slides. Big Tech and the Mag 7 were a major drag, with Tesla and Nvidia the notable decliners. Treasuries were mixed with yield curve steepening. The dollar was sharply weaker on the major crosses. Bitcoin futures were up 4% as Trump signed order to establish strategic bitcoin reserve. Gold was up 2.3%. WTI crude was down 3.9%, its seventh consecutive weekly decline.
This week marks 25 years since the height of the internet bubble and Five years since national Covid shutdown.
Last week was busy in economic data. February nonfarm payrolls grew by 151K vs consensus 150-160K, though January revised lower while unemployment rate ticked slightly higher m/m. Federal government jobs dropped 10K m/m, roughly in-line with analyst previews, however, Citi said the bulk of DOGE layoffs will not hit until May through September. Elsewhere, February ISM Manufacturing dropped with new orders back in contraction territory while employment component fell and prices accelerated with respondents flagging tariff worries. Meanwhile, ISM services was more positive, registering expansion in both new orders and employment. Initial claims ticked lower w/w. Challenger job cuts for February spiked 103% y/y, though a third of this was attributed to DOGE efforts toward cutting federal employee numbers.
On the geopolitical front, US decided to stop all aid going to Ukraine, keeping diplomatic tensions high. Some hope for a ceasefire after Bloomberg reported today Russia may be open to a ceasefire with Ukraine though not without conditions. Developments come ahead of this week’s planned US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Trump has been threatening harsher sanctions on both Russia and Iran recently with oil in focus. Though prospect of harsher oil sanctions was not enough to stop WTI from touching three-year lows this week after OPEC announced they will hike production and April.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
January FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 1 last week. There are 593 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 36 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 3/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 151k nonfarm jobs in February and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.93. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +21k Financial, and +18k Transportation and Warehousing.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 3/6/2025 – In the week ending March 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250 an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 2/4/2025 – The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 3/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent in January. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 3/6/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 3/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the eighth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent 0.7 percent higher than January’s reading of 52.8 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 3/3/2025 – The February Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percent lower compared to January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index fell into contraction territory, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/3/2025 – Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 2/28/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.609 million units in January.
Chicago PMI – Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
Personal Income – Released 2/28/2025 – Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 2/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
Durable Goods – Released 2/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two months of decline, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $8.6 billion or 9.8% to $96.5 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 2/26/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 2/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 104.1 to 98.3 in February. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.
Existing Home Sales – Released 2/21/2025 – Existing home sales in January decreased 4.9% from December but increased 2.0% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.08 million in January seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $396,900, up 4.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 2/19/2025 – January housing starts came in at 1,366,000, 9.8% below the December estimate and is 0.7% below the January 2024 rate. Building permits were 0.1% above the December rate at $1,483,000 but is 1.7% below the January 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 2/14/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.5% in January after rising 1.0% in December. Manufacturing decreased 0.1%. Utilities output increased 7.2%. Mining decreased 1.2%. Total industrial production in January was 2.0% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.8% in January, a rate that is 1.8% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 2/14/2025 – Headline retail sales were down 0.9% in January but are up 4.2% above January 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 2/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.5 percent in December and 0.2 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
Consumer Price Index – Released 2/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
This week we get data on CPI, PPI, and JOLTS.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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