2nd Quarter Outlook coming up April 8th– Please joins us.
Equity markets eked out a modest weekly gain after four straight weeks of decline. Big tech was mostly lower, with AAPL +2.2% the standout and NVDA (3.3%) the notable decliner. Other laggards included semis, apparel, parcels/logistics, rails, machinery, REITs casinos, and chemicals. Outperformers included managed care, energy, media, IBs, asset managers, pharma, A&D, and banks. Treasuries were firmer with some curve steepening. The dollar was better on the euro and sterling crosses; DXY +0.4%. Gold rose 0.7%; it has now gained in 11 of the past 12 weeks. Oil was a bit higher though remained below $70/barrel; WTI +1.6% for its second straight week of gains.
A major part of the market narrative was the lack of any major tape bombs from Trump relating to trade or tariffs (with some press reports that the administration may be trying to roll out messaging in a less chaotic fashion). Nevertheless, Trump and White House officials continued to point to the looming 2-Apr schedule for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, with uncertainty about that implementation still a major focus.
Somewhat dovish takeaways from the March FOMC meeting also helped support bullish sentiment. The Fed left rates on hold (as expected), and the median “dot plot” forecasts remained unchanged from December, looking ahead to two 25bp rate cuts in 2025. And while members’ updated economic projections offered a slight taste of stagflation (GDP forecasts were marked down while PCE moved higher), Powell’s economic commentary remained somewhat upbeat and he suggested that inflationary impacts from as-yet uncertain tariffs could be transitory.
Similarly, lastweek’s economic data was generally well received. Headline February retail sales came in light of consensus and January was revised lower, but control-group sales (which feed into GDP) were notably better than expected. February housing starts came in well above forecasts, though permits were only in line; existing-home sales were better as well. Initial claims were largely in line, but continuing claims undershot consensus. But while the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index printed a bit stronger, the NY Fed Empire survey saw a larger-than-expected drop into contractionary territory. And March NAHB homebuilder sentiment came in at the lowest since August, with respondents flagging policy uncertainties and tariff-related costs.
All that said, investors remain somewhat concerned about the possibility of a waning consumer impulse given the uncertain macro backdrop and a recently bumpy market. Although tariff headlines this week were limited, worries about the coming major shifts shift in global trade policy are in the forefront of many investors’ minds. There remains anxiety about other Trump 2.0 policies (including DOGE efforts) exerting pressure on the broader economy. Similarly, Trump’s firing this week of two Democratic commissioners from the Federal Trade Commission is being seen as a caution about Fed Chair Powell’s ability to remain in his role. There is persistent uncertainty about the geopolitical backdrop given Trump’s limited progress on a Ukraine ceasefire and early efforts to rein in the Houthi threat. The market has also had concerns about the risk of a pickup in negative preannouncements as we move toward the Q1 earnings season.
The economic calendar is relatively full this week. Today will bring March PMIs; consumer confidence, new-home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing (Tuesday); February durable-goods orders (Wednesday); jobless claims, and pending-home sales (Thursday); and February PCE and the final UMich consumer sentiment report (Friday). There will be a smattering of Fedspeak with multiple scheduled appearances.
The Baker Hughes rig count gained one last week. There are 593 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 31 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 3/20/2025 – In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 227,000 an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 3/11/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 3/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 151k nonfarm jobs in February and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.93. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +21k Financial, and +18k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.93.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.5% to 8.0%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.4%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.1 hours.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales –Released 3/20/2025 –Existing home sales in February increased 4.2% from January but decreased 1.2% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.26 million in February seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $398,400, up 3.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 3/18/2025 – February housing starts came in at 1,501,000, 11.2% above the January estimate but is 2.9% below the February 2024 rate. Building permits were 1.2% below the January rate at $1,473,000 and is 6.8% below the February 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 3/18/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.7% in February after rising 0.3% in January. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output decreased 2.5%. Mining increased 2.8%. Total industrial production in February was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.2% in February, a rate that is 1.4% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 3/17/2025– Headline retail sales were up 0.2% in February and are up 3.1% above February 2024.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Producer Price Index– Released 3/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
Consumer Price Index –Released 3/12/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 3/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent in January. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 3/6/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 3/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the eighth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent 0.7 percent higher than January’s reading of 52.8 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 3/3/2025 – The February Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percent lower compared to January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index fell into contraction territory, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/3/2025 – Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 2/28/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.609 million units in January.
Chicago PMI– Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
Personal Income – Released 2/28/2025 – Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 2/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
Durable Goods – Released 2/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two months of decline, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $8.6 billion or 9.8% to $96.5 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 2/26/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 2/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 104.1 to 98.3 in February. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.
This week we get data on Consumer Confidence, New Residential Sales, Durable Goods, the 3rd Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP, and Personal Income.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 11, 2025
2nd Quarter Outlook coming up April 8th– Please joins us.
Equity markets eked out a modest weekly gain after four straight weeks of decline. Big tech was mostly lower, with AAPL +2.2% the standout and NVDA (3.3%) the notable decliner. Other laggards included semis, apparel, parcels/logistics, rails, machinery, REITs casinos, and chemicals. Outperformers included managed care, energy, media, IBs, asset managers, pharma, A&D, and banks. Treasuries were firmer with some curve steepening. The dollar was better on the euro and sterling crosses; DXY +0.4%. Gold rose 0.7%; it has now gained in 11 of the past 12 weeks. Oil was a bit higher though remained below $70/barrel; WTI +1.6% for its second straight week of gains.
A major part of the market narrative was the lack of any major tape bombs from Trump relating to trade or tariffs (with some press reports that the administration may be trying to roll out messaging in a less chaotic fashion). Nevertheless, Trump and White House officials continued to point to the looming 2-Apr schedule for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, with uncertainty about that implementation still a major focus.
Somewhat dovish takeaways from the March FOMC meeting also helped support bullish sentiment. The Fed left rates on hold (as expected), and the median “dot plot” forecasts remained unchanged from December, looking ahead to two 25bp rate cuts in 2025. And while members’ updated economic projections offered a slight taste of stagflation (GDP forecasts were marked down while PCE moved higher), Powell’s economic commentary remained somewhat upbeat and he suggested that inflationary impacts from as-yet uncertain tariffs could be transitory.
Similarly, lastweek’s economic data was generally well received. Headline February retail sales came in light of consensus and January was revised lower, but control-group sales (which feed into GDP) were notably better than expected. February housing starts came in well above forecasts, though permits were only in line; existing-home sales were better as well. Initial claims were largely in line, but continuing claims undershot consensus. But while the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index printed a bit stronger, the NY Fed Empire survey saw a larger-than-expected drop into contractionary territory. And March NAHB homebuilder sentiment came in at the lowest since August, with respondents flagging policy uncertainties and tariff-related costs.
All that said, investors remain somewhat concerned about the possibility of a waning consumer impulse given the uncertain macro backdrop and a recently bumpy market. Although tariff headlines this week were limited, worries about the coming major shifts shift in global trade policy are in the forefront of many investors’ minds. There remains anxiety about other Trump 2.0 policies (including DOGE efforts) exerting pressure on the broader economy. Similarly, Trump’s firing this week of two Democratic commissioners from the Federal Trade Commission is being seen as a caution about Fed Chair Powell’s ability to remain in his role. There is persistent uncertainty about the geopolitical backdrop given Trump’s limited progress on a Ukraine ceasefire and early efforts to rein in the Houthi threat. The market has also had concerns about the risk of a pickup in negative preannouncements as we move toward the Q1 earnings season.
The economic calendar is relatively full this week. Today will bring March PMIs; consumer confidence, new-home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing (Tuesday); February durable-goods orders (Wednesday); jobless claims, and pending-home sales (Thursday); and February PCE and the final UMich consumer sentiment report (Friday). There will be a smattering of Fedspeak with multiple scheduled appearances.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count gained one last week. There are 593 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 31 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 3/20/2025 – In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 227,000 an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 3/11/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 3/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 151k nonfarm jobs in February and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.93. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +21k Financial, and +18k Transportation and Warehousing.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 3/20/2025 – Existing home sales in February increased 4.2% from January but decreased 1.2% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.26 million in February seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $398,400, up 3.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 3/18/2025 – February housing starts came in at 1,501,000, 11.2% above the January estimate but is 2.9% below the February 2024 rate. Building permits were 1.2% below the January rate at $1,473,000 and is 6.8% below the February 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 3/18/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.7% in February after rising 0.3% in January. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output decreased 2.5%. Mining increased 2.8%. Total industrial production in February was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.2% in February, a rate that is 1.4% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 3/17/2025 – Headline retail sales were up 0.2% in February and are up 3.1% above February 2024.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Producer Price Index – Released 3/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
Consumer Price Index – Released 3/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 3/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent in January. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 3/6/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 3/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the eighth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent 0.7 percent higher than January’s reading of 52.8 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 3/3/2025 – The February Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percent lower compared to January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index fell into contraction territory, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/3/2025 – Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 2/28/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.609 million units in January.
Chicago PMI – Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
Personal Income – Released 2/28/2025 – Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 2/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
Durable Goods – Released 2/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two months of decline, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $8.6 billion or 9.8% to $96.5 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 2/26/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 2/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 104.1 to 98.3 in February. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.
This week we get data on Consumer Confidence, New Residential Sales, Durable Goods, the 3rd Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP, and Personal Income.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Categories:
Tags: