2nd Quarter Outlook coming up April 8th– Please joins us.
S&P price targets revisions are starting to pile up. The latest and most high profile is Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. He cut his 2025 S&P 500 outlook to 5,700 from 6,200. Kostin cited higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and higher inflation than previous forecast, which led to EPS growth forecast cut to 3% from 7%. Also comes after Goldman Sachs economists this weekend raised 12-month recession forecast by 15pp to 35%, citing lower growth baseline, deterioration in household and business confidence, and White House willingness to tolerate policy-driven near-term weakness. Lack of visibility and fear of tariffis have buyers holding out and sellers are in charge. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are on pace for their biggest falls since the second quarter of 2022. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 5.1%, and the Nasdaq had lost 10%. The Dow was off 2.3%.without dividends.
Stocks were again lower last week with S&P 500 back near correction territory after eking out modest gains the week prior. Declines were somewhat broad-based though Equal-Weight S&P Index outperformed official one by ~35bp. The Mag 7 was mostly lower with Tesla the standout higher. Treasuries were mostly firmer with yield curve steepening. Dollar Index was down 0.2%. Bitcoin futures were up 0.3%. Gold was up 3.1%, further into record territory. WTI crude was up 1.6%, its third consecutive weekly gain.
Trade continued to dominate the news flow with all eyes looking to April 2nd tariff announcement. FT reported the White House considering two-step approach to tariff regime, currently debating proposal that could use rarely-used presidential authority to apply tariffs of up to 50% and simultaneously launch Section 301 investigations into trading partners to address trade imbalances. Furthermore, Bloomberg reported European Commission working on a “term sheet” of possible areas of concession to make to US on trade. Comes after Trump signed an executive order this week imposing permanent tariffs on autos not produced in US set to take effect on 2-Apr. Trump said initial tariff rate will begin at 2.5% before increasing to 25%.
Analyst reactions to the tariff news this week had some focus on inflation impacts. Wedbush said tariffs could push up prices for new cars by average of $5-10K, while JPMorgan said used car market likely to see 9-12% inflation in near-term. Noted retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico could pressure inflation even higher and put further pressure on consumers. Saint Louis Fed President Musalem said upside risks to inflation have increased with tariffs cited as main driver. Noted he wary to think secondary impacts of tariffs will be temporary.
Signs of stretched consumer also received some attention. March consumer confidence dropped more than anticipated, down for fourth straight month. Meanwhile, final March consumer sentiment fell for third straight month while inflation expectations moved higher. Additionally, LULU flagged increase in consumer caution on earnings call. UBS strategists cautioned increasingly cautious consumers is a broader equity market risk. Dip buying has been seemingly exhausted as US equities saw biggest weekly outflow of the year (-$20.3B).
Economic data was mixed to negative. February core PCE was slightly hotter than expected, though headline was in-line; personal income and spending both beat. February headline durable goods orders beat, However, core capital goods orders posted surprise contraction. Final read for Q4 GDP ticked up to a 2.4% SAAR from prior 2.3%, helped by an acceleration in consumer spending. Weekly initial jobless claims printed nearly in-line. S&P Global March Flash Manufacturing PMI missed, falling into contraction territory with output index at a three-month low. February new-home sales printed largely in line.
While negative sentiment prevailed, there were still some positive developments including: 1) Trump said 2-Apr reciprocal tariffs will be “very lenient” while EU reportedly preparing concessions; 2) Trump floated possibility of reducing tariffs on China to get a deal done on TikTok; 3) Congressional Republicans have sped up reconciliation and seemingly reached a consensus on including a debt ceiling raise; 4) Service sector outperformance continued as flash services PMI unexpectedly expanded in March; 5) employment data continued to be solid.
Notable macro events this week: Monday AM: Mar Dallas Fed Index, Mar Chicago PMI; Tuesday AM: Mar ISM Manufacturing, Feb JOLTS, Mar Final PMI Manufacturing; Wednesday AM: Mar ADP Employment, Feb Durable Goods; Thursday AM: Mar ISM Services, Jobless Claims, Mar Final Markit PMI; Friday AM: Mar Nonfarm Payrolls.
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 592 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 29 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 3/27/2025 – In the week ending March 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,000 a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 3/11/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 3/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 151k nonfarm jobs in February and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.93. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +21k Financial, and +18k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.93.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.5% to 8.0%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.4%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.1 hours.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Personal Income – Released 3/28/2025 – Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 3/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports.
Durable Goods – Released 3/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up two consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.9% to $289.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 3.3% January increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8%. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $1.4 billion or 1.5% to $98.3 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 3/25/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.8 percent above the revised January rate of 664,000 and is 5.1 percent above the February 2024 estimate of 643,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2025 was $414,500. The average sales price was $487,100.
Consumer Confidence– Released 3/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 98.3 to 92.9 in March. The Present Situation Index which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 3.6 points to 134.5. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales –Released 3/20/2025 –Existing home sales in February increased 4.2% from January but decreased 1.2% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.26 million in February seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $398,400, up 3.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 3/18/2025 – February housing starts came in at 1,501,000, 11.2% above the January estimate but is 2.9% below the February 2024 rate. Building permits were 1.2% below the January rate at $1,473,000 and is 6.8% below the February 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 3/18/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.7% in February after rising 0.3% in January. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output decreased 2.5%. Mining increased 2.8%. Total industrial production in February was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.2% in February, a rate that is 1.4% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 3/17/2025– Headline retail sales were up 0.2% in February and are up 3.1% above February 2024.
Producer Price Index– Released 3/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
Consumer Price Index –Released 3/12/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 3/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent in January. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 3/6/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 3/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the eighth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent 0.7 percent higher than January’s reading of 52.8 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 3/3/2025 – The February Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percent lower compared to January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index fell into contraction territory, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/3/2025 – Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 2/28/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.609 million units in January.
Chicago PMI– Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, JOLTS, and the March Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 13, 2025
2nd Quarter Outlook coming up April 8th– Please joins us.
S&P price targets revisions are starting to pile up. The latest and most high profile is Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. He cut his 2025 S&P 500 outlook to 5,700 from 6,200. Kostin cited higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and higher inflation than previous forecast, which led to EPS growth forecast cut to 3% from 7%. Also comes after Goldman Sachs economists this weekend raised 12-month recession forecast by 15pp to 35%, citing lower growth baseline, deterioration in household and business confidence, and White House willingness to tolerate policy-driven near-term weakness. Lack of visibility and fear of tariffis have buyers holding out and sellers are in charge. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are on pace for their biggest falls since the second quarter of 2022. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 5.1%, and the Nasdaq had lost 10%. The Dow was off 2.3%.without dividends.
Stocks were again lower last week with S&P 500 back near correction territory after eking out modest gains the week prior. Declines were somewhat broad-based though Equal-Weight S&P Index outperformed official one by ~35bp. The Mag 7 was mostly lower with Tesla the standout higher. Treasuries were mostly firmer with yield curve steepening. Dollar Index was down 0.2%. Bitcoin futures were up 0.3%. Gold was up 3.1%, further into record territory. WTI crude was up 1.6%, its third consecutive weekly gain.
Trade continued to dominate the news flow with all eyes looking to April 2nd tariff announcement. FT reported the White House considering two-step approach to tariff regime, currently debating proposal that could use rarely-used presidential authority to apply tariffs of up to 50% and simultaneously launch Section 301 investigations into trading partners to address trade imbalances. Furthermore, Bloomberg reported European Commission working on a “term sheet” of possible areas of concession to make to US on trade. Comes after Trump signed an executive order this week imposing permanent tariffs on autos not produced in US set to take effect on 2-Apr. Trump said initial tariff rate will begin at 2.5% before increasing to 25%.
Analyst reactions to the tariff news this week had some focus on inflation impacts. Wedbush said tariffs could push up prices for new cars by average of $5-10K, while JPMorgan said used car market likely to see 9-12% inflation in near-term. Noted retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico could pressure inflation even higher and put further pressure on consumers. Saint Louis Fed President Musalem said upside risks to inflation have increased with tariffs cited as main driver. Noted he wary to think secondary impacts of tariffs will be temporary.
Signs of stretched consumer also received some attention. March consumer confidence dropped more than anticipated, down for fourth straight month. Meanwhile, final March consumer sentiment fell for third straight month while inflation expectations moved higher. Additionally, LULU flagged increase in consumer caution on earnings call. UBS strategists cautioned increasingly cautious consumers is a broader equity market risk. Dip buying has been seemingly exhausted as US equities saw biggest weekly outflow of the year (-$20.3B).
Economic data was mixed to negative. February core PCE was slightly hotter than expected, though headline was in-line; personal income and spending both beat. February headline durable goods orders beat, However, core capital goods orders posted surprise contraction. Final read for Q4 GDP ticked up to a 2.4% SAAR from prior 2.3%, helped by an acceleration in consumer spending. Weekly initial jobless claims printed nearly in-line. S&P Global March Flash Manufacturing PMI missed, falling into contraction territory with output index at a three-month low. February new-home sales printed largely in line.
While negative sentiment prevailed, there were still some positive developments including: 1) Trump said 2-Apr reciprocal tariffs will be “very lenient” while EU reportedly preparing concessions; 2) Trump floated possibility of reducing tariffs on China to get a deal done on TikTok; 3) Congressional Republicans have sped up reconciliation and seemingly reached a consensus on including a debt ceiling raise; 4) Service sector outperformance continued as flash services PMI unexpectedly expanded in March; 5) employment data continued to be solid.
Notable macro events this week: Monday AM: Mar Dallas Fed Index, Mar Chicago PMI; Tuesday AM: Mar ISM Manufacturing, Feb JOLTS, Mar Final PMI Manufacturing; Wednesday AM: Mar ADP Employment, Feb Durable Goods; Thursday AM: Mar ISM Services, Jobless Claims, Mar Final Markit PMI; Friday AM: Mar Nonfarm Payrolls.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 592 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 29 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 3/27/2025 – In the week ending March 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,000 a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 3/11/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 3/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 151k nonfarm jobs in February and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.93. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +21k Financial, and +18k Transportation and Warehousing.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Personal Income – Released 3/28/2025 – Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 3/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports.
Durable Goods – Released 3/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up two consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.9% to $289.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 3.3% January increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8%. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $1.4 billion or 1.5% to $98.3 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 3/25/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.8 percent above the revised January rate of 664,000 and is 5.1 percent above the February 2024 estimate of 643,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2025 was $414,500. The average sales price was $487,100.
Consumer Confidence– Released 3/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 98.3 to 92.9 in March. The Present Situation Index which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 3.6 points to 134.5. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 3/20/2025 – Existing home sales in February increased 4.2% from January but decreased 1.2% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.26 million in February seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $398,400, up 3.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 3/18/2025 – February housing starts came in at 1,501,000, 11.2% above the January estimate but is 2.9% below the February 2024 rate. Building permits were 1.2% below the January rate at $1,473,000 and is 6.8% below the February 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 3/18/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.7% in February after rising 0.3% in January. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output decreased 2.5%. Mining increased 2.8%. Total industrial production in February was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.2% in February, a rate that is 1.4% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 3/17/2025 – Headline retail sales were up 0.2% in February and are up 3.1% above February 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 3/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
Consumer Price Index – Released 3/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 3/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent in January. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 3/6/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 3/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the eighth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent 0.7 percent higher than January’s reading of 52.8 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 3/3/2025 – The February Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percent lower compared to January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index fell into contraction territory, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/3/2025 – Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 2/28/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.609 million units in January.
Chicago PMI – Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, JOLTS, and the March Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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