U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 303,000 jobs in March, significantly more than the 200,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.8%, versus February’s 3.9%, in line with expectations. This is solid data for the economy but it allows the Fed to continue a “wait and see” approach to lowering interest rates.
Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. Growth/momentum factors were relative outperformers while value lagged. Treasuries were notably weaker with the curve steepening amid the week’s mixed economic data and Fedspeak hinting at some lack of urgency about rate cuts.
The dollar was weaker overall, though a bit better on the yen cross; DXY (0.2%).
Gold +4.8% notched its best week since October, pushing above $2,300/oz and even farther into record territory.
Copper +5.7% had another strong week and is near its highest levels since mid-2022.
WTI crude settled up +4.5%, continuing to see its highest levels in six months.
Treasury yields rose to their highest levels this year. Firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading) and in combination with some Fedspeak that pushed out the first rate cut, drove yields higher.
There was also an increasing focus on inflationary pressures from higher commodity prices as well as more cautious signals about the health of the consumer. Long-ignored geopolitics made a brief reappearance, with some worries about Iranian retaliation for a presumed Israeli strike in Syria, but fears of a widening Mideast war have come and gone multiple times in recent months.
On the economic front, March nonfarm payrolls came in well ahead of consensus, with the unemployment rate dipping with help from an expanding labor force. Average hourly earnings were largely in line, with the y/y increase the lowest since June 2021. Earlier in the week, the market processed a surprisingly strong read for March ISM manufacturing.
While these reports raised the specter of stronger economic growth (with worries of attendant inflationary pressures), other reports were more mixed. March ISM services was softer, with the prices-paid component moving down to its lowest mark since March 2020. And the February JOLTS report showed job openings little changed m/m.
It was another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, Powell hewed closely to themes from his recent appearances, noting the bumpy path back down to 2% inflation, the search for greater confidence in the trend, and the ability to be patient afforded by the robust economy.
There was little that was surprising from the week’s many other Fed speakers, who largely reiterated their stances across the dove-hawk spectrum (though there was some note Thursday of Kashkari reminding that it is possible the Fed may not ease at all during 2024 if inflation data moves sideways). The fundamental result was a slight dip in expectations for the Fed to start easing in June, though the market is still largely looking for three cuts this year.
Ultimately, the market will continue to debate the degree to which good news is good vs bad and what impact developments will have on the Fed’s expected easing cycle. But no narrative remains straightforward. Disinflationary forces appear to remain in place, though policymakers say they will continue to focus on the entirety of the incoming data (including next week’s CPI).
Inflows to US equities remain strong, though there continue to be notes of stretched sentiment and positioning indicators and concerns about overbought conditions. Recent reports have shown some cracks in the consumer-resilience story, though some reporters such as LEVI are still seeing positive results, and there is a whole Q1 earnings season to come.
This week is likely to be very consequential for the markets. Investors will process key data including March CPI, March PPI, and preliminary April UMich consumer sentiment. The Q1 earnings season kicks off with reports from some big banks this week and the March FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 1 this week. There are 620 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 131 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary– Released 4/5/2024 – The US economy added 303k nonfarm jobs in March and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents to $34.69. Hiring highlights include +72k Healthcare, +71k Government, +49k Leisure and Hospitality, and +39k Construction.
Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents/0.3% to $34.69.
U3 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 3.8%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.3%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.4 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 4/4/2024 – In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000 an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 214,250 an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 4/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 1/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2023. The 12-month period ending in December 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending December 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent over the 12-month December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending December 2023 and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit –Released 4/5/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4 percent in February. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 4/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion from $67.6 billion in January. February exports were $263.0 billion, $5.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $331.9 billion, $7.1 billion more than January imports. The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $0.3 billion to $91.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.6 billion to $22.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 4/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 4/1/2024 – Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion. The February figure is 10.7 percent above the February 2023 estimate of $1,889.6 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/1/2024 – The March Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, up 2.5 percent from February. The manufacturing sector expanded in March following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 2020.The New Orders Index moved back into expansion territory at 51.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 54.6 percent is a 6.2-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 48.4 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 3/29/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.795 million units in February.
Chicago PMI– Released 3/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in March declining to 41.4 points down from 44.0 points in February. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in March, and the lowest level in the past ten months.
Personal Income – Released 3/29/2024 – Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $145.5 billion (0.8 percent).
Third Estimate of 4th Quarter 2023 GDP – Released 3/28/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed expectations and increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The GDP “third” estimate is based on source data that are more complete than that released in the “second” and “advance” estimates. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 3/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following two months of decline, increased $3.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $277.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $2.9 billion or 3.3 percent to $90.4 billion.
Consumer Confidence – Released 3/26/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in March, essentially unchanged from February. Expectations decreased from 76.3 to 73.8. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future. Consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels especially in concerns about food and gas prices, but in general complaints about gas prices have been trending downward. Recession fears continued to trend downward, but consumers expressed more concern about the US political environment compared to prior months.
New Residential Sales – Released 3/25/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent below the revised January rate of 664,000 but is 5.9 percent above the February 2023 estimate of 625,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2024 was $400,500. The average sales price was $485,000. At the end of February, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 463,000, a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate.
Existing Home Sales – Released 3/21/2024 – Existing home sales in February increased 9.5% from January but fell 3.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.38 million in February seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $384,500.
Housing Starts–Released 3/19/2024 – February housing starts came in at 1,521,000, 10.7% above the January estimate and is 5.9% above the February 2023 rate. Building permits were 1.9% above the January rate at $1,518,000 and 2.4% above the February 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 3/15/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.1% in February following a 0.5% decline in January. Manufacturing increased 0.8%. Utilities output decreased 7.5%. Mining increased 2.2%. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 78.3% in February, a rate that is 1.3% below its long-run average.
Producer Price Index – Released 3/14/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.3 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
Retail Sales– Released 3/14/2024– Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in February and are up 1.5% above February 2023.
Consumer Price Index –Released 3/12/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3 percent in January. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Next week we get data on CPI and PPI.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 14, 2024
Key Takeaways
U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 303,000 jobs in March, significantly more than the 200,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.8%, versus February’s 3.9%, in line with expectations. This is solid data for the economy but it allows the Fed to continue a “wait and see” approach to lowering interest rates.
Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. Growth/momentum factors were relative outperformers while value lagged. Treasuries were notably weaker with the curve steepening amid the week’s mixed economic data and Fedspeak hinting at some lack of urgency about rate cuts.
Treasury yields rose to their highest levels this year. Firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading) and in combination with some Fedspeak that pushed out the first rate cut, drove yields higher.
There was also an increasing focus on inflationary pressures from higher commodity prices as well as more cautious signals about the health of the consumer. Long-ignored geopolitics made a brief reappearance, with some worries about Iranian retaliation for a presumed Israeli strike in Syria, but fears of a widening Mideast war have come and gone multiple times in recent months.
On the economic front, March nonfarm payrolls came in well ahead of consensus, with the unemployment rate dipping with help from an expanding labor force. Average hourly earnings were largely in line, with the y/y increase the lowest since June 2021. Earlier in the week, the market processed a surprisingly strong read for March ISM manufacturing.
While these reports raised the specter of stronger economic growth (with worries of attendant inflationary pressures), other reports were more mixed. March ISM services was softer, with the prices-paid component moving down to its lowest mark since March 2020. And the February JOLTS report showed job openings little changed m/m.
It was another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, Powell hewed closely to themes from his recent appearances, noting the bumpy path back down to 2% inflation, the search for greater confidence in the trend, and the ability to be patient afforded by the robust economy.
There was little that was surprising from the week’s many other Fed speakers, who largely reiterated their stances across the dove-hawk spectrum (though there was some note Thursday of Kashkari reminding that it is possible the Fed may not ease at all during 2024 if inflation data moves sideways). The fundamental result was a slight dip in expectations for the Fed to start easing in June, though the market is still largely looking for three cuts this year.
Ultimately, the market will continue to debate the degree to which good news is good vs bad and what impact developments will have on the Fed’s expected easing cycle. But no narrative remains straightforward. Disinflationary forces appear to remain in place, though policymakers say they will continue to focus on the entirety of the incoming data (including next week’s CPI).
Inflows to US equities remain strong, though there continue to be notes of stretched sentiment and positioning indicators and concerns about overbought conditions. Recent reports have shown some cracks in the consumer-resilience story, though some reporters such as LEVI are still seeing positive results, and there is a whole Q1 earnings season to come.
This week is likely to be very consequential for the markets. Investors will process key data including March CPI, March PPI, and preliminary April UMich consumer sentiment. The Q1 earnings season kicks off with reports from some big banks this week and the March FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 1 this week. There are 620 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 131 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 4/5/2024 – The US economy added 303k nonfarm jobs in March and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents to $34.69. Hiring highlights include +72k Healthcare, +71k Government, +49k Leisure and Hospitality, and +39k Construction.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 4/4/2024 – In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000 an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 214,250 an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 4/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2023. The 12-month period ending in December 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending December 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent over the 12-month December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending December 2023 and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 4/5/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4 percent in February. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 4/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion from $67.6 billion in January. February exports were $263.0 billion, $5.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $331.9 billion, $7.1 billion more than January imports. The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $0.3 billion to $91.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.6 billion to $22.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 4/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 4/1/2024 – Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion. The February figure is 10.7 percent above the February 2023 estimate of $1,889.6 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/1/2024 – The March Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, up 2.5 percent from February. The manufacturing sector expanded in March following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 2020.The New Orders Index moved back into expansion territory at 51.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 54.6 percent is a 6.2-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 48.4 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 3/29/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.795 million units in February.
Chicago PMI – Released 3/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in March declining to 41.4 points down from 44.0 points in February. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in March, and the lowest level in the past ten months.
Personal Income – Released 3/29/2024 – Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $145.5 billion (0.8 percent).
Third Estimate of 4th Quarter 2023 GDP – Released 3/28/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed expectations and increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The GDP “third” estimate is based on source data that are more complete than that released in the “second” and “advance” estimates. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 3/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following two months of decline, increased $3.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $277.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $2.9 billion or 3.3 percent to $90.4 billion.
Consumer Confidence – Released 3/26/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in March, essentially unchanged from February. Expectations decreased from 76.3 to 73.8. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future. Consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels especially in concerns about food and gas prices, but in general complaints about gas prices have been trending downward. Recession fears continued to trend downward, but consumers expressed more concern about the US political environment compared to prior months.
New Residential Sales – Released 3/25/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent below the revised January rate of 664,000 but is 5.9 percent above the February 2023 estimate of 625,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2024 was $400,500. The average sales price was $485,000. At the end of February, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 463,000, a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate.
Existing Home Sales – Released 3/21/2024 – Existing home sales in February increased 9.5% from January but fell 3.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.38 million in February seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $384,500.
Housing Starts – Released 3/19/2024 – February housing starts came in at 1,521,000, 10.7% above the January estimate and is 5.9% above the February 2023 rate. Building permits were 1.9% above the January rate at $1,518,000 and 2.4% above the February 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 3/15/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.1% in February following a 0.5% decline in January. Manufacturing increased 0.8%. Utilities output decreased 7.5%. Mining increased 2.2%. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 78.3% in February, a rate that is 1.3% below its long-run average.
Producer Price Index – Released 3/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.3 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
Retail Sales– Released 3/14/2024 – Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in February and are up 1.5% above February 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 3/12/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3 percent in January. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Next week we get data on CPI and PPI.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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