The market mounted a notable rebound this week, with the S&P rising more than 2.5% and narrowing what had been a 5.5% MTD decrease through last Friday. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week’s narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents–including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms.
Overall, these were well received and consistent with expectations for continued solid earnings growth for Q1. With nearly half of the index now having reported, the blended earnings growth rate of 3.5% is running near expectations from the end of the quarter, and the 8.4% average positive earnings surprise rate is very near the five-year average.
The S&P 500 broke a three week losing streak, while the Nasdaq broke a four week down streak. Both indices saw their best weekly gain since early November. Big tech was a key driver of the upside, with the week seeing well-received earnings reports from TSLA +14.4%, GOOGL +11.6%, and MSFT +1.8% (and NVDA +15.1% benefiting from renewed AI/megacap optimism).
Semis and software were broadly stronger, with other outperformers including small-caps, banks, credit cards, restaurants, hotels, cruise lines, HPCs, MedTech, building products, and China tech. Laggards included managed care, transports, P&C insurers, media, drug stores, and ag machinery.
Treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening, though yields generally pared WTD increases on Friday following in-line March core PCE inflation data. The market absorbed $183B in new issuance, with only Tuesday’s $70B auction in 2Y notes tailing. The dollar was slightly weaker overall; DXY (0.1%). The big FX story this week was the yen hitting fresh post-1990 lows and an uptick in speculation about possible intervention. Gold (2.8%) pulled back after four straight weeks of gains, finishing back below $2,400/oz. WTI crude +2.0% strengthened after two consecutive weekly declines.
There was also a lot of attention on the week’s economic releases. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.
While this fed into the “bad news is good news theme” (with the Fed more likely to cut amid a slowdown), Thursday’s Q1 GDP sparked a good amount of “stagflation” commentary given slower-than-expected growth but higher core PCE for the quarter.
However, Friday’s PCE report for March was right in line with expectations and seemed to soothe some simmering inflationary fears. From a monetary-policy standpoint, the week’s developments seemed to solidify expectations for a single Fed rate cut this year with a second possibly not materializing until March 2025.
In the end, the week saw the market stabilize after the recent slump that followed Q1 at record highs, though it remains to be seen where the market may move from here. The bullish narrative continues to be founded on expectations for Fed easing, with rate cuts seen delayed but still in the pipeline.
Bulls have also been looking for solid corporate earnings amid a “no landing” economy; and while some of this week’s economic releases gave optimists pause, there is also a sense that stagflation fears are overdone.
Atop all this, there are still upbeat views on AI progress, buybacks are holding up better than feared, and worries about a wider Mideast war have faded (for now). On the flip side, however, the week did see a definite slip in Fed rate-cut expectations and multiple signals the economy could be slowing. Concerns about sticky inflation remain, as evidenced by the uptick in consumer’s one- and five-year inflation expectations in Friday’s final UMich consumer sentiment report for April.
Next week brings 175 S&P constituents reporting earnings, with AMZN (post-close Tuesday) and AAPL (post-close Thursday) among the most anticipated. Other big reporters will include LLY, MA, KO, AMD, AMGN, PFE, and SBUX. The FOMC will meet next week, releasing a statement at 2pm Eastern on Wednesday followed by Chair Powell’s press conference.
No rate action is expected but the market will be watching for the release of any plans for tapering the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff (analysts are looking for the Fed to reduce the run-off of Treasuries to $30B/mo from the current $60B). The big economic release will be April nonfarm payrolls on Friday (preceded by March JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls), but the market will also process April ISM manufacturing and services reports.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 6 this week. There are 613 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 142 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 4/25/2024 – In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,500.
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary– Released 4/5/2024 – The US Economyadded 303k nonfarm jobs in March and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents to $34.69. Hiring highlights include +72k Healthcare, +71k Government, +49k Leisure and Hospitality, and +39k Construction.
Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents/0.3% to $34.69.
U3 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 3.8%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.3%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.4 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 4/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 1/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2023. The 12-month period ending in December 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending December 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent over the 12-month December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending December 2023 and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/26/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.576 million units in March.
Personal Income– Released 4/26/2024 – Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in March.
First Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 4/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 4/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up two consecutive months, increased $7.3 billionor 2.6 percent to $283.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $6.8 billion or 7.7 percent to $95.9 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $282.4 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $89.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 4/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 8.8 percent (±17.2 percent)* above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent (±19.5 percent)* above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
Recent Economic Data
Existing Home Sales – Released 4/18/2024 – Existing home sales in March decreased 4.3% from February and fell 3.7% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.19 million in March seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $393,500.
Housing Starts– Released 4/16/2024 – March housing starts came in at 1,321,000, 14.7% below the February estimate and is 4.3% below the March 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.3% below the February rate at $1,458,000 but 1.5% above the March 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 4/16/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in March but declined 1.8% in the first quarter of 2024. Manufacturing increased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 2.0%. Mining decreased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 78.4% in March, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 4/15/2024– Headline retail sales increased 0.7% in March and are up 4.0% above March 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 4/11/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
Consumer Price Index –Released 4/10/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit –Released 4/5/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4 percent in February. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 4/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion from $67.6 billion in January. February exports were $263.0 billion, $5.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $331.9 billion, $7.1 billion more than January imports. The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $0.3 billion to $91.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.6 billion to $22.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 4/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 4/1/2024 – Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion. The February figure is 10.7 percent above the February 2023 estimate of $1,889.6 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/1/2024 – The March Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, up 2.5 percent from February. The manufacturing sector expanded in March following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 2020.The New Orders Index moved back into expansion territory at 51.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 54.6 percent is a 6.2-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 48.4 percent.
Chicago PMI– Released 3/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in March declining to 41.4 points down from 44.0 points in February. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in March, and the lowest level in the past ten months.
Consumer Confidence – Released 3/26/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in March, essentially unchanged from February. Expectations decreased from 76.3 to 73.8. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future. Consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels especially in concerns about food and gas prices, but in general complaints about gas prices have been trending downward. Recession fears continued to trend downward, but consumers expressed more concern about the US political environment compared to prior months.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, 1st Quarter 2024 GDP, and Personal Income.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 17, 2024
The market mounted a notable rebound this week, with the S&P rising more than 2.5% and narrowing what had been a 5.5% MTD decrease through last Friday. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week’s narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents–including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms.
Overall, these were well received and consistent with expectations for continued solid earnings growth for Q1. With nearly half of the index now having reported, the blended earnings growth rate of 3.5% is running near expectations from the end of the quarter, and the 8.4% average positive earnings surprise rate is very near the five-year average.
The S&P 500 broke a three week losing streak, while the Nasdaq broke a four week down streak. Both indices saw their best weekly gain since early November. Big tech was a key driver of the upside, with the week seeing well-received earnings reports from TSLA +14.4%, GOOGL +11.6%, and MSFT +1.8% (and NVDA +15.1% benefiting from renewed AI/megacap optimism).
Semis and software were broadly stronger, with other outperformers including small-caps, banks, credit cards, restaurants, hotels, cruise lines, HPCs, MedTech, building products, and China tech. Laggards included managed care, transports, P&C insurers, media, drug stores, and ag machinery.
Treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening, though yields generally pared WTD increases on Friday following in-line March core PCE inflation data. The market absorbed $183B in new issuance, with only Tuesday’s $70B auction in 2Y notes tailing. The dollar was slightly weaker overall; DXY (0.1%). The big FX story this week was the yen hitting fresh post-1990 lows and an uptick in speculation about possible intervention. Gold (2.8%) pulled back after four straight weeks of gains, finishing back below $2,400/oz. WTI crude +2.0% strengthened after two consecutive weekly declines.
There was also a lot of attention on the week’s economic releases. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.
While this fed into the “bad news is good news theme” (with the Fed more likely to cut amid a slowdown), Thursday’s Q1 GDP sparked a good amount of “stagflation” commentary given slower-than-expected growth but higher core PCE for the quarter.
However, Friday’s PCE report for March was right in line with expectations and seemed to soothe some simmering inflationary fears. From a monetary-policy standpoint, the week’s developments seemed to solidify expectations for a single Fed rate cut this year with a second possibly not materializing until March 2025.
In the end, the week saw the market stabilize after the recent slump that followed Q1 at record highs, though it remains to be seen where the market may move from here. The bullish narrative continues to be founded on expectations for Fed easing, with rate cuts seen delayed but still in the pipeline.
Bulls have also been looking for solid corporate earnings amid a “no landing” economy; and while some of this week’s economic releases gave optimists pause, there is also a sense that stagflation fears are overdone.
Atop all this, there are still upbeat views on AI progress, buybacks are holding up better than feared, and worries about a wider Mideast war have faded (for now). On the flip side, however, the week did see a definite slip in Fed rate-cut expectations and multiple signals the economy could be slowing. Concerns about sticky inflation remain, as evidenced by the uptick in consumer’s one- and five-year inflation expectations in Friday’s final UMich consumer sentiment report for April.
Next week brings 175 S&P constituents reporting earnings, with AMZN (post-close Tuesday) and AAPL (post-close Thursday) among the most anticipated. Other big reporters will include LLY, MA, KO, AMD, AMGN, PFE, and SBUX. The FOMC will meet next week, releasing a statement at 2pm Eastern on Wednesday followed by Chair Powell’s press conference.
No rate action is expected but the market will be watching for the release of any plans for tapering the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff (analysts are looking for the Fed to reduce the run-off of Treasuries to $30B/mo from the current $60B). The big economic release will be April nonfarm payrolls on Friday (preceded by March JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls), but the market will also process April ISM manufacturing and services reports.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 6 this week. There are 613 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 142 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 4/25/2024 – In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,500.
February Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 4/5/2024 – The US Economyadded 303k nonfarm jobs in March and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents to $34.69. Hiring highlights include +72k Healthcare, +71k Government, +49k Leisure and Hospitality, and +39k Construction.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 4/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2023. The 12-month period ending in December 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending December 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent over the 12-month December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending December 2023 and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/26/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.576 million units in March.
Personal Income – Released 4/26/2024 – Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in March.
First Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 4/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 4/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up two consecutive months, increased $7.3 billionor 2.6 percent to $283.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $6.8 billion or 7.7 percent to $95.9 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $282.4 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $89.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 4/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 8.8 percent (±17.2 percent)* above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent (±19.5 percent)* above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
Recent Economic Data
Existing Home Sales – Released 4/18/2024 – Existing home sales in March decreased 4.3% from February and fell 3.7% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.19 million in March seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $393,500.
Housing Starts– Released 4/16/2024 – March housing starts came in at 1,321,000, 14.7% below the February estimate and is 4.3% below the March 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.3% below the February rate at $1,458,000 but 1.5% above the March 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 4/16/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in March but declined 1.8% in the first quarter of 2024. Manufacturing increased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 2.0%. Mining decreased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 78.4% in March, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 4/15/2024 – Headline retail sales increased 0.7% in March and are up 4.0% above March 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 4/11/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.6 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
Consumer Price Index – Released 4/10/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 4/5/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4 percent in February. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 4/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion from $67.6 billion in January. February exports were $263.0 billion, $5.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $331.9 billion, $7.1 billion more than January imports. The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $0.3 billion to $91.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.6 billion to $22.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 4/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 4/1/2024 – Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion. The February figure is 10.7 percent above the February 2023 estimate of $1,889.6 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/1/2024 – The March Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, up 2.5 percent from February. The manufacturing sector expanded in March following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 2020.The New Orders Index moved back into expansion territory at 51.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 54.6 percent is a 6.2-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 48.4 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 3/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in March declining to 41.4 points down from 44.0 points in February. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in March, and the lowest level in the past ten months.
Consumer Confidence – Released 3/26/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in March, essentially unchanged from February. Expectations decreased from 76.3 to 73.8. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future. Consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels especially in concerns about food and gas prices, but in general complaints about gas prices have been trending downward. Recession fears continued to trend downward, but consumers expressed more concern about the US political environment compared to prior months.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, 1st Quarter 2024 GDP, and Personal Income.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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