After closing at All Time Highs above 40k a week ago, the Dow Jones pulled back over 2% including a 1.5% pull back on Thursday. The Nasdaq on the other hand is still just shy of all time highs, largely in part to Nvidia’s monster week. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished were higher for a fifth-straight gain.
Overall, stocks were somewhat listless in a low volume week with the S&P little changed. Treasuries were weaker across the curve, with the policy-sensitive 2Y yield up ~11 bp for the week, back around 4.95%.
The dollar index was up 0.3% for the week, firmer on the yen and euro crosses but a bit weaker vs sterling. Gold was down 3.4% for the week, the worst weekly performance YTD. Copper was down 5.9% for the week after hitting a record high on Monday, the worst weekly performance since Nov-22. Bitcoin futures were up ~3%. WTI crude was down 2.3%.
Data also skewed positive last week, including May flash manufacturing and services PMIs both ahead of consensus, including flash composite PMI the highest in two years. This week’s initial jobless claims of 215K also came in below consensus for 220K, a second-straight weekly decline after the 232K print at the beginning of May that was the highest since August.
The strong data played into the good-news-is-bad-news dynamic. Following the Thursday data, the odds of a September rate cut fell to around 50%, down from nearly 75% earlier this week. The cautious outlook around rate cuts was also echoed by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who said he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut this year, while Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their call for the first rate cut from July to September, citing the PMI data and jobless claims data that suggest no meaningful softness in economic activity.
This week also saw hawkish-leaning May FOMC meeting minutesand Fedspeak, including Governor Waller saying he still needs to see “several more months” of good inflation data in order to be comfortable cutting. Other pieces of the bearish narrative include extended positioning, with UBS arguing CTAs are largely tapped out after buying $110-120B of equities over the past month, while the latest EPFR data showed US net equity inflows of $12.2B in the week to 22-May, a fifth-straight week of inflows totaling nearly $100B. Sentiment also seen as extended with the AAII bull-bear spread up over 22pp in the past month.
Nvidia earnings were the highlight of this week’s batch of results. The company grew revenue by 262% y/y to $26B, ahead of estimates, including a 427% increase in data center segment revenues. The results also helped offset concerns about its upcoming product transition, which were elevated this week after Amazon announced it would delay an order from Nvidia as it awaits the release of its Grace Blackwell chip.
Key events and data this week include Tuesday’s Consumer confidence; Wednesday’s Richmond Fed index, and Fed Beige Book; Thursday’s second look at Q1 GDP and initial claims (8:30 ET) and April pending home sales; and Friday’s April core PCE, which is expected to decelerate to 0.26%, which would be the lowest since December.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 this week. There are 600 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 111 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/23/2024 – In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/3/2024 – The US economy added 175k nonfarm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 3.9%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $34.75. Hiring highlights include +56k Healthcare, +31k Social Assistance, +22k Transportation and warehousing, and +20k Retail Trade.
Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents/0.2% to $34.75.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 3.9%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.4%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.
Average work week decreased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 5/1/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires was little changed while total separations declined to 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Durable Goods – Released 5/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were roughly unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
Existing Home Sales – Released 5/22/2024 – Existing home sales in April decreased 1.9% from March and fell 1.9% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.14 million in April seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $407,600.
Recent Economic Data
Housing Starts – Released 5/16/2024 – April housing starts came in at 1,360,000, 5.7% above the March estimate but is 0.6% below the April 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.0% below the March rate at $1,485,000 and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/16/2024 – Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining decreased 0.6%. Total industrial production in April was 0.4% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.4% in April, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 5/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in April and are up 3.0% above April 2023.
Consumer Price Index– Released 5/15/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 5/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased more than expected rising 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand decreased 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Credit – Released 5/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in March. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 49.4 percent, 2.0 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 51.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/2/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February. March exports were $257.6 billion, $5.3 billion less than February exports. March imports were $327.0 billion, $5.4 billion less than February imports. The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $92.5 billion and a increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $23.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 5/1/2024 – Construction spending during March 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,083.9 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,087.8 billion. The March figure is 9.6 percent above the March 2023 estimate of $1,901.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index– Released 5/1/2024 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 49.2 percent, down 1.1 percent from March. The manufacturing sector contracted in April after one month of expansion and following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued to expand for the 48th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.1 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the figure of 51.4 percent recorded in March. The Production Index reading of 51.3 percent is a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to March’s figure of 54.6 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 4/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April declining to 37.9 points down from 41.4 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in April, and the lowest level since November 2022.
Consumer Confidence – Released 4/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in April for the third consecutive month. Expectations decreased from 74.0 to 66.4. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation declined in April from 14.8 to 142.9. Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 4/26/2024 –U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.576 million units in March.
Personal Income– Released 4/26/2024 –Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in March.
First Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP– Released 4/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
This week we get data on the 2nd Estimate of 1st Quarter GDP, Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, and Chicago PMI.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 21, 2024
After closing at All Time Highs above 40k a week ago, the Dow Jones pulled back over 2% including a 1.5% pull back on Thursday. The Nasdaq on the other hand is still just shy of all time highs, largely in part to Nvidia’s monster week. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished were higher for a fifth-straight gain.
Overall, stocks were somewhat listless in a low volume week with the S&P little changed. Treasuries were weaker across the curve, with the policy-sensitive 2Y yield up ~11 bp for the week, back around 4.95%.
The dollar index was up 0.3% for the week, firmer on the yen and euro crosses but a bit weaker vs sterling. Gold was down 3.4% for the week, the worst weekly performance YTD. Copper was down 5.9% for the week after hitting a record high on Monday, the worst weekly performance since Nov-22. Bitcoin futures were up ~3%. WTI crude was down 2.3%.
Data also skewed positive last week, including May flash manufacturing and services PMIs both ahead of consensus, including flash composite PMI the highest in two years. This week’s initial jobless claims of 215K also came in below consensus for 220K, a second-straight weekly decline after the 232K print at the beginning of May that was the highest since August.
The strong data played into the good-news-is-bad-news dynamic. Following the Thursday data, the odds of a September rate cut fell to around 50%, down from nearly 75% earlier this week. The cautious outlook around rate cuts was also echoed by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who said he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut this year, while Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their call for the first rate cut from July to September, citing the PMI data and jobless claims data that suggest no meaningful softness in economic activity.
This week also saw hawkish-leaning May FOMC meeting minutes and Fedspeak, including Governor Waller saying he still needs to see “several more months” of good inflation data in order to be comfortable cutting. Other pieces of the bearish narrative include extended positioning, with UBS arguing CTAs are largely tapped out after buying $110-120B of equities over the past month, while the latest EPFR data showed US net equity inflows of $12.2B in the week to 22-May, a fifth-straight week of inflows totaling nearly $100B. Sentiment also seen as extended with the AAII bull-bear spread up over 22pp in the past month.
Nvidia earnings were the highlight of this week’s batch of results. The company grew revenue by 262% y/y to $26B, ahead of estimates, including a 427% increase in data center segment revenues. The results also helped offset concerns about its upcoming product transition, which were elevated this week after Amazon announced it would delay an order from Nvidia as it awaits the release of its Grace Blackwell chip.
Key events and data this week include Tuesday’s Consumer confidence; Wednesday’s Richmond Fed index, and Fed Beige Book; Thursday’s second look at Q1 GDP and initial claims (8:30 ET) and April pending home sales; and Friday’s April core PCE, which is expected to decelerate to 0.26%, which would be the lowest since December.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 this week. There are 600 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 111 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/23/2024 – In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/3/2024 – The US economy added 175k nonfarm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 3.9%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $34.75. Hiring highlights include +56k Healthcare, +31k Social Assistance, +22k Transportation and warehousing, and +20k Retail Trade.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 5/1/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires was little changed while total separations declined to 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Durable Goods – Released 5/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were roughly unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
Existing Home Sales – Released 5/22/2024 – Existing home sales in April decreased 1.9% from March and fell 1.9% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.14 million in April seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $407,600.
Recent Economic Data
Housing Starts – Released 5/16/2024 – April housing starts came in at 1,360,000, 5.7% above the March estimate but is 0.6% below the April 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.0% below the March rate at $1,485,000 and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/16/2024 – Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining decreased 0.6%. Total industrial production in April was 0.4% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.4% in April, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 5/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in April and are up 3.0% above April 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 5/15/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 5/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased more than expected rising 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand decreased 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Credit – Released 5/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in March. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 49.4 percent, 2.0 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 51.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/2/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February. March exports were $257.6 billion, $5.3 billion less than February exports. March imports were $327.0 billion, $5.4 billion less than February imports. The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $92.5 billion and a increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $23.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 5/1/2024 – Construction spending during March 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,083.9 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,087.8 billion. The March figure is 9.6 percent above the March 2023 estimate of $1,901.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/1/2024 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 49.2 percent, down 1.1 percent from March. The manufacturing sector contracted in April after one month of expansion and following 16 consecutive months of contraction. The overall economy continued to expand for the 48th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.1 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the figure of 51.4 percent recorded in March. The Production Index reading of 51.3 percent is a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to March’s figure of 54.6 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 4/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April declining to 37.9 points down from 41.4 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in April, and the lowest level since November 2022.
Consumer Confidence – Released 4/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased in April for the third consecutive month. Expectations decreased from 74.0 to 66.4. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation declined in April from 14.8 to 142.9. Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 4/26/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.576 million units in March.
Personal Income – Released 4/26/2024 – Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in March.
First Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 4/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
This week we get data on the 2nd Estimate of 1st Quarter GDP, Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, and Chicago PMI.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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