US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both logging their sixth gain of the past seven weeks and setting fresh record highs earlier in the week. Breadth was again quite narrow, however, and the equal-weight S&P posted a decline for the week; RSP (0.7%). Small-caps continued to struggle, with the Russell down for the second time in the past three weeks.
Friday’s jobs reports showed the economy added 272k jobs while at the same time the unemployment rate went up slightly to 4.0% Overall the week’s economic data painted a mixed picture. On the jobs front, a decline in April job openings and a below-consensus May ADP report played into expectations for continued softening in job creation, but Friday nonfarm payrolls were much hotter than expected (and average hourly earnings grew faster than forecast as well).
May ISM manufacturing printed below consensus, with new orders a weak spot; in contrast, May ISM Services bounced back from April’s brief very stint in contraction. Weekly jobless claims ticked up slightly, but remained near longer-term lows.
Covid and beyond employment picture:
The US currently has 158 million people working, the highest ever recorded.
It was another big week for big tech, with NVDA garnering a lot of attention for its continued run higher and move above $3T in market cap. But it also heightened worries about concentration and the possibility of broader market weakness if those megacaps stall. At the same time, there remained a vigorous debate about the potential threat of slower economic growth (somewhat dispelled by Friday’s big beat for nonfarm payrolls). Behind everything, the Fed remained in focus, with investors still trying to isolate a narrative about interest-rate policy against an increasingly complex macro background. The ECB and Bank of Canada both cut rates this week; the question of when the Fed may begin to follow remains a major market preoccupation.
Treasuries were mostly stronger, particularly at the long end of the curve, even after a big post-NFP yield run-up on Friday. The dollar was somewhat stronger on the euro and sterling crosses; DXY +0.2%. Gold had a good week before a big Friday slide, ultimately ending down 0.9%. Oil logged its third straight week of declines, with WTI settling down 1.96%. The move came in the wake of last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, at which the cartel and its allies made plans for the potential easing of some voluntary output cuts later this year (though analysts noted some technical factors likely exacerbated the post-meeting weakness).
This week’s Fed meeting is not expected to result in any rate move, but participants will certainly discuss the economic backdrop in detail. Market-based expectations suggest a consensus remains that the Fed will make a first cut in September, but conviction is less firm in the wake of payrolls and there will be a lot of attention on the new edition of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Analyst previews are looking for a shift in the dot plot down from three to either two or even one 25bp cuts as a median projection.
The market tone trended toward the bullish overall last week, helped by an easing of economic growth worries, expectations for (eventual) Fed rate cuts, and solid corporate earnings. AI remains a major secular growth tailwind with continued expectations for a longer-term productivity boost. Consumer resilience in the challenging macro environment remains a concern, but corporate updates this week were constructive. Analysts also pointed to favorable flow trends and positive seasonality coming up in July. But the bearish argument remains, with investors increasingly taking notice of the complex and shifting confluence of macro factors. Growth concerns will likely continue to be discussed alongside elevated rates, while there is more attention being focused on the threat to corporate pricing power. AI optimism is being increasingly countered by worries about slowing innovation and the crowding-out of other capex. And narrowing market breadth will continue as long as the megacaps continue to drive index performance.
The key event next week will be the June FOMC meeting, with the policy statement out at 2pm Eastern on Wednesday 12-Jun. The market is broadly expecting rates to be held steady, though there will be more focus on changes to policymakers’ forecasts in the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). On the economic calendar will be May CPI (12-Jun, before the Fed decision), May PPI on Thursday, and preliminary UMich Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations on Friday.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 6 this week. There are 594 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 101 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 6/7/2024 – The US Economyadded 272k nonfarm jobs in May and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents to $34.91. Hiring highlights include +68k Healthcare, +43k Government, and +42k Leisure and Hospitality.
Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents/0.4% to $34.91.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.0%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4%.
The labor force participation rate declined 0.2% to 62.5%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 6/6/2024 – In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 222,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/4/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit –Released 6/7/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in April. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $74.6 billion in April, up $6.0 billion from $68.6 billion in March. April exports were $263.7 billion, $2.1 billion more than March exports. April imports were $338.2 billion, $8.0 billion more than March imports. The April increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.9 billion to $99.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.7 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 6/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in May following a contraction in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 53.8 percent, 4.4 percentage higher lower than April’s reading of 49.4 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/3/2024 – Construction spending during April 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,099.0 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,101.5 billion. The April figure is 10.0 percent above the April 2023 estimate of $1,907.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2024 – The May Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, down 0.5 percent from April. The manufacturing sector contracted in May for the second consecutive month and the 18th time in the last 19 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 49th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.4 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.1 percent recorded in April. The Production Index reading of 50.2 percent is a 1.1-percentage point decrease compared to April’s figure of 51.3 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.753 million units in April.
Chicago PMI– Released 5/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in May declining to 35.4 points down from 37.9 points in April. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in May, and the lowest level since May 2020.
Personal Income – Released 5/31/2024 – Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.1 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 5/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “second” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/28/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.5 to 102.0 in May following three consecutive months of decline. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month, but the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May. Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index.
Durable Goods Released 5/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were roughly unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
New Residential SalesReleased 5/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
Existing Home SalesReleased 5/22/2024 – Existing home sales in April decreased 1.9% from March and fell 1.9% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.14 million in April seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $407,600.
Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2024 – April housing starts came in at 1,360,000, 5.7% above the March estimate but is 0.6% below the April 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.0% below the March rate at $1,485,000 and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 5/16/2024 – Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining decreased 0.6%. Total industrial production in April was 0.4% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.4% in April, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2024– Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in April and are up 3.0% above April 2023.
Consumer Price Index –Released 5/15/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 5/14/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased more than expected rising 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand decreased 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 23, 2024
US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both logging their sixth gain of the past seven weeks and setting fresh record highs earlier in the week. Breadth was again quite narrow, however, and the equal-weight S&P posted a decline for the week; RSP (0.7%). Small-caps continued to struggle, with the Russell down for the second time in the past three weeks.
Friday’s jobs reports showed the economy added 272k jobs while at the same time the unemployment rate went up slightly to 4.0% Overall the week’s economic data painted a mixed picture. On the jobs front, a decline in April job openings and a below-consensus May ADP report played into expectations for continued softening in job creation, but Friday nonfarm payrolls were much hotter than expected (and average hourly earnings grew faster than forecast as well).
May ISM manufacturing printed below consensus, with new orders a weak spot; in contrast, May ISM Services bounced back from April’s brief very stint in contraction. Weekly jobless claims ticked up slightly, but remained near longer-term lows.
Covid and beyond employment picture:
The US currently has 158 million people working, the highest ever recorded.
It was another big week for big tech, with NVDA garnering a lot of attention for its continued run higher and move above $3T in market cap. But it also heightened worries about concentration and the possibility of broader market weakness if those megacaps stall. At the same time, there remained a vigorous debate about the potential threat of slower economic growth (somewhat dispelled by Friday’s big beat for nonfarm payrolls). Behind everything, the Fed remained in focus, with investors still trying to isolate a narrative about interest-rate policy against an increasingly complex macro background. The ECB and Bank of Canada both cut rates this week; the question of when the Fed may begin to follow remains a major market preoccupation.
Treasuries were mostly stronger, particularly at the long end of the curve, even after a big post-NFP yield run-up on Friday. The dollar was somewhat stronger on the euro and sterling crosses; DXY +0.2%. Gold had a good week before a big Friday slide, ultimately ending down 0.9%. Oil logged its third straight week of declines, with WTI settling down 1.96%. The move came in the wake of last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, at which the cartel and its allies made plans for the potential easing of some voluntary output cuts later this year (though analysts noted some technical factors likely exacerbated the post-meeting weakness).
This week’s Fed meeting is not expected to result in any rate move, but participants will certainly discuss the economic backdrop in detail. Market-based expectations suggest a consensus remains that the Fed will make a first cut in September, but conviction is less firm in the wake of payrolls and there will be a lot of attention on the new edition of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Analyst previews are looking for a shift in the dot plot down from three to either two or even one 25bp cuts as a median projection.
The market tone trended toward the bullish overall last week, helped by an easing of economic growth worries, expectations for (eventual) Fed rate cuts, and solid corporate earnings. AI remains a major secular growth tailwind with continued expectations for a longer-term productivity boost. Consumer resilience in the challenging macro environment remains a concern, but corporate updates this week were constructive. Analysts also pointed to favorable flow trends and positive seasonality coming up in July. But the bearish argument remains, with investors increasingly taking notice of the complex and shifting confluence of macro factors. Growth concerns will likely continue to be discussed alongside elevated rates, while there is more attention being focused on the threat to corporate pricing power. AI optimism is being increasingly countered by worries about slowing innovation and the crowding-out of other capex. And narrowing market breadth will continue as long as the megacaps continue to drive index performance.
The key event next week will be the June FOMC meeting, with the policy statement out at 2pm Eastern on Wednesday 12-Jun. The market is broadly expecting rates to be held steady, though there will be more focus on changes to policymakers’ forecasts in the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). On the economic calendar will be May CPI (12-Jun, before the Fed decision), May PPI on Thursday, and preliminary UMich Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations on Friday.
Fixed Income:
Yield Curve:
May FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 6 this week. There are 594 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 101 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 6/7/2024 – The US Economyadded 272k nonfarm jobs in May and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents to $34.91. Hiring highlights include +68k Healthcare, +43k Government, and +42k Leisure and Hospitality.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 6/6/2024 – In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 222,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/4/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 6/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in April. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $74.6 billion in April, up $6.0 billion from $68.6 billion in March. April exports were $263.7 billion, $2.1 billion more than March exports. April imports were $338.2 billion, $8.0 billion more than March imports. The April increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.9 billion to $99.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.7 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 6/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in May following a contraction in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 53.8 percent, 4.4 percentage higher lower than April’s reading of 49.4 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/3/2024 – Construction spending during April 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,099.0 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,101.5 billion. The April figure is 10.0 percent above the April 2023 estimate of $1,907.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2024 – The May Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, down 0.5 percent from April. The manufacturing sector contracted in May for the second consecutive month and the 18th time in the last 19 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 49th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.4 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.1 percent recorded in April. The Production Index reading of 50.2 percent is a 1.1-percentage point decrease compared to April’s figure of 51.3 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.753 million units in April.
Chicago PMI – Released 5/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in May declining to 35.4 points down from 37.9 points in April. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in May, and the lowest level since May 2020.
Personal Income – Released 5/31/2024 – Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.1 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 5/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “second” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/28/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.5 to 102.0 in May following three consecutive months of decline. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month, but the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May. Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index.
Durable Goods Released 5/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were roughly unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
New Residential Sales Released 5/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
Existing Home Sales Released 5/22/2024 – Existing home sales in April decreased 1.9% from March and fell 1.9% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.14 million in April seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $407,600.
Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2024 – April housing starts came in at 1,360,000, 5.7% above the March estimate but is 0.6% below the April 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.0% below the March rate at $1,485,000 and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 5/16/2024 – Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining decreased 0.6%. Total industrial production in April was 0.4% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.4% in April, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in April and are up 3.0% above April 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 5/15/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 5/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased more than expected rising 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand decreased 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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