The S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new all-time highs again last week, closing above 5400 and 17600 for the 1st time ever. These gains were largely driven by continued enthusiasm for Artificial Intelligence plays. Evidence comes in the form of Apple’s announcement last week to bring better AI to iPhone users by striking a deal with ChatGTP – maker – Open AI. This drove Apple higher by 8% on the week. Also pushing new highs was Nvidia, who rallied most of the week after splitting 10 -1 on Monday. This AI enthusiasm did not pour over into the rest of the market. Breadth was again narrow as the cap-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the equal-weighted index for the fourth week in the past five, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both finished the week lower.
Treasuries saw a big rally across the curve, with the 2Y down 19 bp for the week and back under 4.70%, while the 10Y was down 22 bp to 4.22%, the lowest since early April. The dollar index was up 0.7%, faring best against the euro amid political uncertainty in France. Gold was up 1%. Bitcoin futures were down 5.9%. WTI crude settled up 3.3%.
The June FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected. The biggest focus was on the updated dot plot in the SEP, showed a median forecast for just one cut this year, down from three in the March projection, though pushed those cuts into 2025 and 2026. The policy statement contained very few changes, though adjusted a reference to “modest further progress” toward the 2% inflation target from “a lack of further progress” in May, which some saw as somewhat dovish. Following the meeting, Street economists still mostly see two cuts this year despite the Fed’s projection, while markets continue to price in a higher likelihood of two cuts this year, with the year-end median fed funds rate of 4.96% suggesting more than 40 bp of cuts from the current midpoint
Inflation data was in focus this week, with Wednesday’s May CPI report coming in cooler than expected across the board. Core CPI of 0.2% m/m was below 0.3% consensus, while the 3.4% y/y print was cooler than 3.5% consensus and the smallest since Apr-21. Shelter remains sticky, up 0.4% for a fourth-straight month, and up 5.4% y/y, accounting for around two-thirds of the total y/y core increase. However, Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% y/y, the lowest since Mar-21. May PPI was also cooler, with core PPI unchanged against expectations for a 0.3% rise. This week’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment also came in weaker than expected, though the biggest focus was on the unchanged 1Y inflation expectations of 3.2%, with the Street looking for a slight decline into the print. Initial jobless claims also rose to the highest since Aug-23 and continuing claims since Nov-21, which was seen as adding support to a sooner Fed rate cut, particularly after Chair Powell said Wednesday that the Fed would respond to unexpected weakness in the labor market.
However, a number of pieces of the bearish narrative remain, including extended positioning. BofA strategists noted this week CTA positioning is back near elevated levels after bottoming in mid-Q2, while Goldman Sachs strategists noted US equity exposure is back to very extended levels, with CTA’s becoming sellers in near-term if the S&P 500 falls to 5,240 level, or ~3.5% from the current level. The Fed’s projection for just one 2024 rate cut also added to the higher-for-longer narrative. And despite some positive economic data on inflation, survey data remains cautious, including little improvement in inflation expectations across consumers (Bloomberg) or small businesses (Reuters). Weak breadth and concerns around market concentration were again in focus this week as big tech again led the market higher, while cyclicals underperformed and the equal-weighted S&P 500 trailed the cap weighted by more than 200 bp for the week.
This week includes Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, and is somewhat lighter on economic data. Today brings the June Empire State index. Tuesday’s big report is May retail sales, with expectations for a rebound to 0.3% growth after an unchanged print last month. Wednesday’s June NAHB builder confidence is followed by Thursday’s May housing starts and building permits and Philadelphia Fed Index. Data Friday include Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI and May existing home sales.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 this week. There are 590 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 97 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 6/13/2024 – In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 6/7/2024 – The US Economyadded 272k nonfarm jobs in May and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents to $34.91. Hiring highlights include +68k Healthcare, +43k Government, and +42k Leisure and Hospitality.
Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents/0.4% to $34.91.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.0%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4%.
The labor force participation rate declined 0.2% to 62.5%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/4/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Consumer Credit –Released 6/7/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in April. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $74.6 billion in April, up $6.0 billion from $68.6 billion in March. April exports were $263.7 billion, $2.1 billion more than March exports. April imports were $338.2 billion, $8.0 billion more than March imports. The April increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.9 billion to $99.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.7 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 6/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in May following a contraction in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 53.8 percent, 4.4 percentage higher lower than April’s reading of 49.4 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/3/2024 – Construction spending during April 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,099.0 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,101.5 billion. The April figure is 10.0 percent above the April 2023 estimate of $1,907.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2024 – The May Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, down 0.5 percent from April. The manufacturing sector contracted in May for the second consecutive month and the 18th time in the last 19 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 49th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.4 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.1 percent recorded in April. The Production Index reading of 50.2 percent is a 1.1-percentage point decrease compared to April’s figure of 51.3 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.753 million units in April.
Chicago PMI– Released 5/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in May declining to 35.4 points down from 37.9 points in April. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in May, and the lowest level since May 2020.
Personal Income – Released 5/31/2024 – Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.1 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 5/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “second” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/28/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.5 to 102.0 in May following three consecutive months of decline. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month, but the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May. Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index.
Durable Goods Released 5/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were roughly unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
New Residential SalesReleased 5/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
Existing Home SalesReleased 5/22/2024 – Existing home sales in April decreased 1.9% from March and fell 1.9% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.14 million in April seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $407,600.
Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2024 – April housing starts came in at 1,360,000, 5.7% above the March estimate but is 0.6% below the April 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.0% below the March rate at $1,485,000 and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 5/16/2024 – Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining decreased 0.6%. Total industrial production in April was 0.4% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.4% in April, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2024– Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in April and are up 3.0% above April 2023.
Consumer Price Index –Released 5/15/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 5/14/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased more than expected rising 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand decreased 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 24, 2024
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new all-time highs again last week, closing above 5400 and 17600 for the 1st time ever. These gains were largely driven by continued enthusiasm for Artificial Intelligence plays. Evidence comes in the form of Apple’s announcement last week to bring better AI to iPhone users by striking a deal with ChatGTP – maker – Open AI. This drove Apple higher by 8% on the week. Also pushing new highs was Nvidia, who rallied most of the week after splitting 10 -1 on Monday. This AI enthusiasm did not pour over into the rest of the market. Breadth was again narrow as the cap-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the equal-weighted index for the fourth week in the past five, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both finished the week lower.
Treasuries saw a big rally across the curve, with the 2Y down 19 bp for the week and back under 4.70%, while the 10Y was down 22 bp to 4.22%, the lowest since early April. The dollar index was up 0.7%, faring best against the euro amid political uncertainty in France. Gold was up 1%. Bitcoin futures were down 5.9%. WTI crude settled up 3.3%.
The June FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected. The biggest focus was on the updated dot plot in the SEP, showed a median forecast for just one cut this year, down from three in the March projection, though pushed those cuts into 2025 and 2026. The policy statement contained very few changes, though adjusted a reference to “modest further progress” toward the 2% inflation target from “a lack of further progress” in May, which some saw as somewhat dovish. Following the meeting, Street economists still mostly see two cuts this year despite the Fed’s projection, while markets continue to price in a higher likelihood of two cuts this year, with the year-end median fed funds rate of 4.96% suggesting more than 40 bp of cuts from the current midpoint
Inflation data was in focus this week, with Wednesday’s May CPI report coming in cooler than expected across the board. Core CPI of 0.2% m/m was below 0.3% consensus, while the 3.4% y/y print was cooler than 3.5% consensus and the smallest since Apr-21. Shelter remains sticky, up 0.4% for a fourth-straight month, and up 5.4% y/y, accounting for around two-thirds of the total y/y core increase. However, Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% y/y, the lowest since Mar-21. May PPI was also cooler, with core PPI unchanged against expectations for a 0.3% rise. This week’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment also came in weaker than expected, though the biggest focus was on the unchanged 1Y inflation expectations of 3.2%, with the Street looking for a slight decline into the print. Initial jobless claims also rose to the highest since Aug-23 and continuing claims since Nov-21, which was seen as adding support to a sooner Fed rate cut, particularly after Chair Powell said Wednesday that the Fed would respond to unexpected weakness in the labor market.
However, a number of pieces of the bearish narrative remain, including extended positioning. BofA strategists noted this week CTA positioning is back near elevated levels after bottoming in mid-Q2, while Goldman Sachs strategists noted US equity exposure is back to very extended levels, with CTA’s becoming sellers in near-term if the S&P 500 falls to 5,240 level, or ~3.5% from the current level. The Fed’s projection for just one 2024 rate cut also added to the higher-for-longer narrative. And despite some positive economic data on inflation, survey data remains cautious, including little improvement in inflation expectations across consumers (Bloomberg) or small businesses (Reuters). Weak breadth and concerns around market concentration were again in focus this week as big tech again led the market higher, while cyclicals underperformed and the equal-weighted S&P 500 trailed the cap weighted by more than 200 bp for the week.
This week includes Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, and is somewhat lighter on economic data. Today brings the June Empire State index. Tuesday’s big report is May retail sales, with expectations for a rebound to 0.3% growth after an unchanged print last month. Wednesday’s June NAHB builder confidence is followed by Thursday’s May housing starts and building permits and Philadelphia Fed Index. Data Friday include Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI and May existing home sales.
Fixed Income:
Yield Curve:
May FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 this week. There are 590 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 97 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 6/13/2024 – In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 6/7/2024 – The US Economyadded 272k nonfarm jobs in May and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents to $34.91. Hiring highlights include +68k Healthcare, +43k Government, and +42k Leisure and Hospitality.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/4/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Consumer Credit – Released 6/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in April. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $74.6 billion in April, up $6.0 billion from $68.6 billion in March. April exports were $263.7 billion, $2.1 billion more than March exports. April imports were $338.2 billion, $8.0 billion more than March imports. The April increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.9 billion to $99.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.7 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 6/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in May following a contraction in April following 15 consecutive months of expansion. The Services PMI® registered 53.8 percent, 4.4 percentage higher lower than April’s reading of 49.4 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/3/2024 – Construction spending during April 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,099.0 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,101.5 billion. The April figure is 10.0 percent above the April 2023 estimate of $1,907.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2024 – The May Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, down 0.5 percent from April. The manufacturing sector contracted in May for the second consecutive month and the 18th time in the last 19 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 49th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.4 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.1 percent recorded in April. The Production Index reading of 50.2 percent is a 1.1-percentage point decrease compared to April’s figure of 51.3 percent.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.753 million units in April.
Chicago PMI – Released 5/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in May declining to 35.4 points down from 37.9 points in April. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in May, and the lowest level since May 2020.
Personal Income – Released 5/31/2024 – Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.1 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 5/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “second” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/28/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.5 to 102.0 in May following three consecutive months of decline. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month, but the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May. Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index.
Durable Goods Released 5/24/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were roughly unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
New Residential Sales Released 5/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
Existing Home Sales Released 5/22/2024 – Existing home sales in April decreased 1.9% from March and fell 1.9% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.14 million in April seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $407,600.
Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2024 – April housing starts came in at 1,360,000, 5.7% above the March estimate but is 0.6% below the April 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.0% below the March rate at $1,485,000 and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 5/16/2024 – Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output increased 2.8%. Mining decreased 0.6%. Total industrial production in April was 0.4% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.4% in April, a rate that is 1.2% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged in April and are up 3.0% above April 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 5/15/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 5/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased more than expected rising 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand decreased 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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