Small and Mid cap stocks rocketed higher last week rallying over 4 and 5% respectfully, following a great inflation print on the CPI report. While the S&P 500 index reached all-time high (again) this week, there was a large rotation out of Mega cap tech. The large growth index fell by over 2%. Outperformers included REITS, precious metals miners, hospitals, homebuilders, regional banks, biotech, machinery, and solar. Underperformers included interactive media, airlines, software, money center banks marine shipping, aluminum, and refiners. Treasuries were firmer with the yield curve steepening. Dollar was weaker on the major crosses, particularly yen and sterling. Gold finished with a weekly gain of 1.0%. WTI crude fell 1.1%.
For the 1st time since the covid shutdown, month/m headline CPI came in negative. Analysts expected a reading of +0.1% instead the reading was negative at -0.1%. Analysts highlighted long-awaited deceleration in rent and OER toward pre-pandemic levels. Other groups that saw declines included new vehicles (down 0.2% m/m), used vehicles (down 1.5% m/m), and airfares (down 5% m/m). However, June PPI came in hotter than expected with upward revisions to May’s readings. In the details, energy prices were a drag on the month while food prices were somewhat softer than expected. But higher margins boosted producer prices for services in June, resulting an upside surprise. FedWatch Tool odds for September cut now sitting at 85% after the CPI and PPI releases. Staying on inflation, this week also saw July’s Prelim Michigan sentiment report which showed falling one and five-year inflation expectations m/m.
Last week had a quiet start as the market hovered in waiting mode ahead of Thursday’s CPI and Friday’s PPI. June’s CPI disinflation sparked massive rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on S&P and Nasdaq. Some analysts noted further rotation to be expected over the next few weeks during Q2 earnings season. Big banks kicked off first round of corporate results and mostly underwhelmed with few-major surprises though some added scrutiny around guidance. Both Street and press have flagged high bar for Q2 earnings season with all eyes on durability of AI secular growth theme and consumer resilience. President Biden spent the better part of the week rejecting calls for him to exit the race and had some notable gaffes at major NATO address. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony included few major changes to established narrative.
Elsewhere, Fed Chair Powell concluded a largely uneventful two-day testimony before Congress. Big takeaway was Powell highlighting the two-sided risks to economy with a weakening labor market just as big of a risk as inflation, though he still cautioned cutting too soon could reverse progress on inflation. Analyst takeaways noted dovish tilt to the testimony. Relatedly, latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one and five-year inflation expectations down m/m though three-year expectations rose slightly. Labor market takeaways from the report were mixed. Meanwhile, this week’s jobless claims reportsaw initial claims pull back below consensus, though continuing claims came in above forecasts but were still down w/w.
Ultimately, there were both bullish and bearish developments throughout the week. Some of the bullish developments included: 1) Cooler CPI with market seeing near 90% chance of September rate cut; 2) Dovish tilt to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony; 3) CPI rotation dynamics improving market breadth; 4) More AI enthusiasm with TSMC reporting better-than-expected Jun Q revenue growth, while AAPL +1.8% planning iPhone AI-features to boost demand by 10%. On the bearish side: 1) High bar for Q2 earnings season as bulk of S&P 500 reporters this week lagged despite their beats; 2) More hints of some cracks in consumer resilience this week in PEP +1.2% and DAL -5.2% earnings, among others; 3) Powell highlighted elevated inflation no longer only risk for US economy, referencing labor market; 4) NFIB small business sentiment below historical average for 30th straight month in June with inflation still biggest challenge.
This week we see data on June Retail Sales, June Housing Starts, June Industrial Production, FED Beige Book and the July Philadelphia Fed Index.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 1 this week. There are 584 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 91 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 7/11/2024 – In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 233,500 a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/5/2024– The US Economyadded 206k nonfarm jobs in June and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.00. Hiring highlights include +49k Healthcare, +70k Government, and +34k Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.00.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.6%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Producer Price Index – Released 7/12/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index –Released 7/11/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit –Released 7/8/2024– Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
Recent Economic Data
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/5/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.290 million units in June.
U.S. Trade Balance –Released 7/3/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion more than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $100.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $25.1 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 7/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in three months. The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5.0 percentage lower than May’s reading of 53.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2024 – Construction spending during May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.8 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised April estimate of $2,142.1 billion. The May figure is 6.4 percent above the May 2023 estimate of $2,011.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2024 – The June Manufacturing PMI registered 48..5 percent, down 0.2 percent from May. The manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.4 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 1.7-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 50.2 percent.
Chicago PMI– Released 6/28/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in June but increased to 47.4 points up from 35.4 points in May. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in June.
Personal Income – Released 6/28/2024 – Personal income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 6/27/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “third” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3 percent. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports increased.
Durable Goods Released 6/27/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up four consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $283.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.2 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down following three consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $284.7 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive month of increases, drove the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $92.0 billion.
New Residential SalesReleased 6/26/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 11.3 percent below the revised April rate of 698,000 and is 16.5 percent below the May 2023 estimate of 741,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2024 was $417,400. The average sales price was $520,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/25/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 101.3 to 100.4 in June following a one month increase and three consecutive months of decline. The expectations index fell from 74.9 to 73.0. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.
Existing Home Sales –Released 6/21/2024 – Existing home sales in May decreased 0.7% from April and fell 2.8% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.11 million in May seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $419,300.
Housing Starts– Released 6/20/2024 – May housing starts came in at 1,277,000, 5.5% below the April estimate and is 19.3% below the May 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.8% below the April rate at $1,386,000 and 9.5% below the May 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/18/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in May. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output increased 1.6%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in May was 0.4% higher than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.7% in May, a rate that is 0.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 6/18/2024– Headline retail sales were up 0.1% in May and are up 2.3% above May 2023.
This week we get data on Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Housing Starts.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 28, 2024
Small and Mid cap stocks rocketed higher last week rallying over 4 and 5% respectfully, following a great inflation print on the CPI report. While the S&P 500 index reached all-time high (again) this week, there was a large rotation out of Mega cap tech. The large growth index fell by over 2%. Outperformers included REITS, precious metals miners, hospitals, homebuilders, regional banks, biotech, machinery, and solar. Underperformers included interactive media, airlines, software, money center banks marine shipping, aluminum, and refiners. Treasuries were firmer with the yield curve steepening. Dollar was weaker on the major crosses, particularly yen and sterling. Gold finished with a weekly gain of 1.0%. WTI crude fell 1.1%.
For the 1st time since the covid shutdown, month/m headline CPI came in negative. Analysts expected a reading of +0.1% instead the reading was negative at -0.1%. Analysts highlighted long-awaited deceleration in rent and OER toward pre-pandemic levels. Other groups that saw declines included new vehicles (down 0.2% m/m), used vehicles (down 1.5% m/m), and airfares (down 5% m/m). However, June PPI came in hotter than expected with upward revisions to May’s readings. In the details, energy prices were a drag on the month while food prices were somewhat softer than expected. But higher margins boosted producer prices for services in June, resulting an upside surprise. FedWatch Tool odds for September cut now sitting at 85% after the CPI and PPI releases. Staying on inflation, this week also saw July’s Prelim Michigan sentiment report which showed falling one and five-year inflation expectations m/m.
Last week had a quiet start as the market hovered in waiting mode ahead of Thursday’s CPI and Friday’s PPI. June’s CPI disinflation sparked massive rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on S&P and Nasdaq. Some analysts noted further rotation to be expected over the next few weeks during Q2 earnings season. Big banks kicked off first round of corporate results and mostly underwhelmed with few-major surprises though some added scrutiny around guidance. Both Street and press have flagged high bar for Q2 earnings season with all eyes on durability of AI secular growth theme and consumer resilience. President Biden spent the better part of the week rejecting calls for him to exit the race and had some notable gaffes at major NATO address. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony included few major changes to established narrative.
Elsewhere, Fed Chair Powell concluded a largely uneventful two-day testimony before Congress. Big takeaway was Powell highlighting the two-sided risks to economy with a weakening labor market just as big of a risk as inflation, though he still cautioned cutting too soon could reverse progress on inflation. Analyst takeaways noted dovish tilt to the testimony. Relatedly, latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one and five-year inflation expectations down m/m though three-year expectations rose slightly. Labor market takeaways from the report were mixed. Meanwhile, this week’s jobless claims reportsaw initial claims pull back below consensus, though continuing claims came in above forecasts but were still down w/w.
Ultimately, there were both bullish and bearish developments throughout the week. Some of the bullish developments included: 1) Cooler CPI with market seeing near 90% chance of September rate cut; 2) Dovish tilt to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony; 3) CPI rotation dynamics improving market breadth; 4) More AI enthusiasm with TSMC reporting better-than-expected Jun Q revenue growth, while AAPL +1.8% planning iPhone AI-features to boost demand by 10%. On the bearish side: 1) High bar for Q2 earnings season as bulk of S&P 500 reporters this week lagged despite their beats; 2) More hints of some cracks in consumer resilience this week in PEP +1.2% and DAL -5.2% earnings, among others; 3) Powell highlighted elevated inflation no longer only risk for US economy, referencing labor market; 4) NFIB small business sentiment below historical average for 30th straight month in June with inflation still biggest challenge.
This week we see data on June Retail Sales, June Housing Starts, June Industrial Production, FED Beige Book and the July Philadelphia Fed Index.
Fixed Income:
Yield Curve:
May FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 1 this week. There are 584 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 91 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 7/11/2024 – In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 233,500 a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/5/2024 – The US Economyadded 206k nonfarm jobs in June and the Unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.00. Hiring highlights include +49k Healthcare, +70k Government, and +34k Social Assistance.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/2/2024 – The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% for the 3-month period ending in March 2024. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefit costs increased 1.1% from December 2023. The 12-month period ending in March 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.2. The 12-month period ending March 2023 increased 4.8%. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period ending March 2024 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Producer Price Index – Released 7/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 7/8/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
Recent Economic Data
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/5/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.290 million units in June.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/3/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion more than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $100.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $25.1 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in three months. The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5.0 percentage lower than May’s reading of 53.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2024 – Construction spending during May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.8 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised April estimate of $2,142.1 billion. The May figure is 6.4 percent above the May 2023 estimate of $2,011.8 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2024 – The June Manufacturing PMI registered 48..5 percent, down 0.2 percent from May. The manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.4 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 1.7-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 50.2 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 6/28/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in June but increased to 47.4 points up from 35.4 points in May. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in June.
Personal Income – Released 6/28/2024 – Personal income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 6/27/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “third” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3 percent. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports increased.
Durable Goods Released 6/27/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up four consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $283.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.2 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down following three consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $284.7 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive month of increases, drove the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $92.0 billion.
New Residential Sales Released 6/26/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 11.3 percent below the revised April rate of 698,000 and is 16.5 percent below the May 2023 estimate of 741,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2024 was $417,400. The average sales price was $520,000.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/25/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 101.3 to 100.4 in June following a one month increase and three consecutive months of decline. The expectations index fell from 74.9 to 73.0. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.
Existing Home Sales – Released 6/21/2024 – Existing home sales in May decreased 0.7% from April and fell 2.8% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.11 million in May seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $419,300.
Housing Starts– Released 6/20/2024 – May housing starts came in at 1,277,000, 5.5% below the April estimate and is 19.3% below the May 2023 rate. Building permits were 3.8% below the April rate at $1,386,000 and 9.5% below the May 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/18/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in May. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output increased 1.6%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in May was 0.4% higher than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.7% in May, a rate that is 0.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 6/18/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.1% in May and are up 2.3% above May 2023.
This week we get data on Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Housing Starts.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Categories:
Tags: