Last week saw the S&P 500 have its best week of the year jumping 4%. It now sits just 100 points from its July 16th all time highs. August 5th looks more like an over reaction to a small(er) group of traders being forced to liquidate because the Yen carry trade went awry, instead of some horrible foreboding of things to come. Both the S&P and Nasdaq broke four-week streaks of declines and posted their best weekly performances since Nov 23’. Big tech was a standout, particularly NVDA +18.9% and TSLA +8.1%. Other outperformers included semis (SOX +9.8%), moneycenter and large-cap banks, regional banks. Fixed income was positive for the week with he US bond agg rising 0.9% Now up almost 4% for the year. The dollar index was down 0.7% for the week. Gold was up 2.6%, finishing Friday at a fresh record high. Bitcoin futures were down 1.9%. WTI crude was down 1.9%.
Soft landing optimism remains the key piece to the bullish narrative. This week’s July retail sales, initial jobless claims, NY Fed SCE inflation expectations (which showed 3Y inflation expectations the lowest in series history), and Consumer Sentiment (which rose for the first time in five months) all played into the narrative of cooling growth but not indicative of an economy falling off a cliff. The latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed 76% of managers expecting a soft landing, the most since BofA began tracking the question in May-23. This week also saw VIX fall back to around 15, or below the level just before last week’s spike to 65, which could spark systematic/CTA buying after volatility-driven deleveraging.
Other pieces of the bullish narrative include an acceleration of share buybacks after the blackout period, hedge funds returning to the yen carry trade, and corporate commentary that highlighted resilient consumer trends, including Walmart. Earnings also remain a key tailwind, particularly expectations for S&P 500 earnings outside of the Mag 7 on pace to deliver profit growth for the first time since Q4-22.
Bearish pieces of the narrative include the Fed not cutting as much as previously thought, now below 100 bp by year end from a peak of over 130 bp earlier this month. Inflation remains sticky in some pockets, particularly shelter, which reversed its recent decline. There are some cautious signals around rising consumer loan delinquencies, corporate layoffs, and some growing questions around consumer demand despite this week’s solid retail sales report. From a market perspective, valuations remain elevated in metrics including P/E and the Fed model, while earnings revisions for Q3 are running weaker with the Street now expecting around 6% growth, down from prior estimates for 11% growth.
July core CPI was in line with consensus, though the three-month annualized core CPI pace of 1.57% was the slowest since Feb-21, while the six-month annualized pace of 2.84% lowest since Mar-21. Shelter was an upside surprise, up 0.2pp m/m to 0.4%, though economist takeaways noted expectations for shelter to resume its downward trend, matching higher frequency data. This week also saw the biggest increase in headline retail sales since Jan-23, and the lowest weekly initial claims reading since early July, adding further support to the soft landing narrative..
Fedspeak leaned more dovish this week, with Atlanta’s Bostic (voter) warning the Fed needs to be more mindful of employment mandate, while Chicago’s Goolsbee (non-voter) said the Fed needs to cut rates before the labor market weakens further, or it would risk moving too late and negatively impacting economy. Given this week’s pullback in growth concerns, markets are now pricing in just a 30% chance of a 50 bp hike in September, down from 55% a week ago, while the market is now pricing in around 90 bp of cuts from the current midpoint by year-end, down around 10 bp w/w.
The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium kicks off this week with Fed Chair Powell set to deliver remarks on the economic outlook on Friday (23-Aug, 10 ET). Previews said Powell could repeat his recent July FOMC comments that the Fed will remain data dependent, though he could also say the Fed wants to avoid further labor market weakening, echoing Goolsbee and Bostic’s comments this week. The July FOMC meeting minutes are also set for release Wednesday (21-Aug, 14 ET). A light week of data next week include August flash manufacturing and services PMI (22-Aug, 8:30 ET), July existing home sales (22-Aug, 10 ET), and July new home sales (23-Aug, 10 ET).
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 this week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 56 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 8/15/2024 – In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 236,500 a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary –Released 8/2/2024 – The US Economyadded 114k nonfarm jobs in July and the Unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents to $35.07. Hiring highlights include +55k Healthcare, +25k Construction, and +14k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents/0.2% to $35.07.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.4% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7%.
Average work week declined 0.1 to 34.2 hours.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/30/2024 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Housing Starts – Released 8/16/2024 – July housing starts came in at 1,238,000, 6.8% below the June estimate but is 16.0% below the July 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.0% below the June rate at $1,454,000 and is 7.0% below the July 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.6% in July.Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane Beryl held down the growth of industrial production by an estimated 0.3%. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output decreased 3.7%. Mining was flat. Total industrial production in July was 0.2% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.8% in July, a rate that is 1.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales –Released 8/15/2024 – Headline retail sales exceeded expectations, up 1.0% in July and are up 2.7% above July 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/14/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1% in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index– Released 8/13/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.2 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in July.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter and increased at 2.1 percent in June. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance–Released 8/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May.June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports. The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $97.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 8/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July for the second time in four months. The Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 2.6 percentage higher than June’s reading of 48.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 8/2/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.817 million units in July.
U.S. Construction Spending –Released 8/1/2024 – Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2024 – The July Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent, down 1.7 percent from 48.5 percent in June. The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.3 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 45.9 percent is a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to June’s figure of 48.5 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 7/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in July and decreased to 45.3 points down from 47.4 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in July.
Consumer Confidence – Released 7/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. The expectations index improved from 72.8 to 78.2. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for six consecutive months. Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future. Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead.
Personal Income – Released 7/26/2024 – Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent).
Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 7/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The GDP “advance” estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down following four consecutive months on increases, decreased $18.6 billion or 6.6 percent to $264.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.0 percent. Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $19.6 billion or 20.5 percent to $75.8 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up four of the last five months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $288.1 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $3.5 billion or 3.8 percent to $95.3 billion.
New Residential Sales –Released 7/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent below the revised May rate of 621,000 and is 7.4 percent below the June 2023 estimate of 666,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200.
Existing Home Sales – Released 7/23/2024 – Existing home sales in June decreased 5.4% from May and fell 5.4% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.89 million in June seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $426,900.
This week we get data on Existing Home Sales and New Residential Sales.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 33, 2024
Last week saw the S&P 500 have its best week of the year jumping 4%. It now sits just 100 points from its July 16th all time highs. August 5th looks more like an over reaction to a small(er) group of traders being forced to liquidate because the Yen carry trade went awry, instead of some horrible foreboding of things to come. Both the S&P and Nasdaq broke four-week streaks of declines and posted their best weekly performances since Nov 23’. Big tech was a standout, particularly NVDA +18.9% and TSLA +8.1%. Other outperformers included semis (SOX +9.8%), moneycenter and large-cap banks, regional banks. Fixed income was positive for the week with he US bond agg rising 0.9% Now up almost 4% for the year. The dollar index was down 0.7% for the week. Gold was up 2.6%, finishing Friday at a fresh record high. Bitcoin futures were down 1.9%. WTI crude was down 1.9%.
Soft landing optimism remains the key piece to the bullish narrative. This week’s July retail sales, initial jobless claims, NY Fed SCE inflation expectations (which showed 3Y inflation expectations the lowest in series history), and Consumer Sentiment (which rose for the first time in five months) all played into the narrative of cooling growth but not indicative of an economy falling off a cliff. The latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed 76% of managers expecting a soft landing, the most since BofA began tracking the question in May-23. This week also saw VIX fall back to around 15, or below the level just before last week’s spike to 65, which could spark systematic/CTA buying after volatility-driven deleveraging.
Other pieces of the bullish narrative include an acceleration of share buybacks after the blackout period, hedge funds returning to the yen carry trade, and corporate commentary that highlighted resilient consumer trends, including Walmart. Earnings also remain a key tailwind, particularly expectations for S&P 500 earnings outside of the Mag 7 on pace to deliver profit growth for the first time since Q4-22.
Bearish pieces of the narrative include the Fed not cutting as much as previously thought, now below 100 bp by year end from a peak of over 130 bp earlier this month. Inflation remains sticky in some pockets, particularly shelter, which reversed its recent decline. There are some cautious signals around rising consumer loan delinquencies, corporate layoffs, and some growing questions around consumer demand despite this week’s solid retail sales report. From a market perspective, valuations remain elevated in metrics including P/E and the Fed model, while earnings revisions for Q3 are running weaker with the Street now expecting around 6% growth, down from prior estimates for 11% growth.
July core CPI was in line with consensus, though the three-month annualized core CPI pace of 1.57% was the slowest since Feb-21, while the six-month annualized pace of 2.84% lowest since Mar-21. Shelter was an upside surprise, up 0.2pp m/m to 0.4%, though economist takeaways noted expectations for shelter to resume its downward trend, matching higher frequency data. This week also saw the biggest increase in headline retail sales since Jan-23, and the lowest weekly initial claims reading since early July, adding further support to the soft landing narrative..
Fedspeak leaned more dovish this week, with Atlanta’s Bostic (voter) warning the Fed needs to be more mindful of employment mandate, while Chicago’s Goolsbee (non-voter) said the Fed needs to cut rates before the labor market weakens further, or it would risk moving too late and negatively impacting economy. Given this week’s pullback in growth concerns, markets are now pricing in just a 30% chance of a 50 bp hike in September, down from 55% a week ago, while the market is now pricing in around 90 bp of cuts from the current midpoint by year-end, down around 10 bp w/w.
The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium kicks off this week with Fed Chair Powell set to deliver remarks on the economic outlook on Friday (23-Aug, 10 ET). Previews said Powell could repeat his recent July FOMC comments that the Fed will remain data dependent, though he could also say the Fed wants to avoid further labor market weakening, echoing Goolsbee and Bostic’s comments this week. The July FOMC meeting minutes are also set for release Wednesday (21-Aug, 14 ET). A light week of data next week include August flash manufacturing and services PMI (22-Aug, 8:30 ET), July existing home sales (22-Aug, 10 ET), and July new home sales (23-Aug, 10 ET).
Fixed Income:
Yield Curve:
July FOMC Statement June Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 this week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 56 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/15/2024 – In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 236,500 a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 8/2/2024 – The US Economyadded 114k nonfarm jobs in July and the Unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents to $35.07. Hiring highlights include +55k Healthcare, +25k Construction, and +14k Transportation and Warehousing.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/30/2024 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Housing Starts – Released 8/16/2024 – July housing starts came in at 1,238,000, 6.8% below the June estimate but is 16.0% below the July 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.0% below the June rate at $1,454,000 and is 7.0% below the July 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.6% in July.Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane Beryl held down the growth of industrial production by an estimated 0.3%. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output decreased 3.7%. Mining was flat. Total industrial production in July was 0.2% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.8% in July, a rate that is 1.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 8/15/2024 – Headline retail sales exceeded expectations, up 1.0% in July and are up 2.7% above July 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/14/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1% in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 8/13/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.2 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in July.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter and increased at 2.1 percent in June. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 8/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May.June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports. The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $97.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 8/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July for the second time in four months. The Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 2.6 percentage higher than June’s reading of 48.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 8/2/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.817 million units in July.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 8/1/2024 – Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2024 – The July Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent, down 1.7 percent from 48.5 percent in June. The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.3 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 45.9 percent is a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to June’s figure of 48.5 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 7/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in July and decreased to 45.3 points down from 47.4 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in July.
Consumer Confidence – Released 7/30/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. The expectations index improved from 72.8 to 78.2. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for six consecutive months. Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future. Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead.
Personal Income – Released 7/26/2024 – Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent).
Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 7/25/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The GDP “advance” estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down following four consecutive months on increases, decreased $18.6 billion or 6.6 percent to $264.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.0 percent. Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $19.6 billion or 20.5 percent to $75.8 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up four of the last five months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $288.1 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $3.5 billion or 3.8 percent to $95.3 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent below the revised May rate of 621,000 and is 7.4 percent below the June 2023 estimate of 666,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200.
Existing Home Sales – Released 7/23/2024 – Existing home sales in June decreased 5.4% from May and fell 5.4% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.89 million in June seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $426,900.
This week we get data on Existing Home Sales and New Residential Sales.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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