The S&P 500 posted another new ATH on Thursday. The Equal weighted S&P index outperformed the market cap weight slightly. Small caps underperformed the other indices. Notably in China, the Heng Seng Index had its best week in 26 years, ending up 13% on stimulus news from China’s Politburo. The big tech names were mostly higher with gains from Tesla and Nvidia offsetting declines from Amazon Microsoft. Treasuries were mostly weaker with rates climbing slightly. The dollar was weaker and Gold rose 0.8% to another new high. Crude Oil was down 3.9% in a volatile week of trading as worries over possible increase in Saudi output outweighed an uptick in tensions in the Middle East along with China stimulus news.
China stimulus, Micron earnings, and August core PCE were the big stories this week. Much of the focus was on the more aggressive than expected stimulus headlines out of China (and big bounce in under-owned China shares). AI secular growth theme was another tailwind after Micron Q4 results were ahead of expectations, though Street particularly impressed with Nov Q guidance that easily surpassed depressed market expectations and the consensus. Company’s better guidance was a function of price, tight supply and mix.
August core PCE was the big economic release this week. Core PCE inflation up just 0.1% in August, below 0.2% consensus; up to 2.7% y/y (a bit higher than July’s 2.6%). Personal income and consumption both higher, but decelerated from prior month’s pace. Headline m/m PCE was in line with consensus. Elsewhere in data this week, Preliminary August durable goods were ahead of consensus. Jobless claims slightly missed. Final Q2 GDP was 3.0%, in line with consensus and first revision. August new home sales declined less than expected m/m, while August pending home sales rose by less than expected. September consumer confidence came in below consensus, with labor-market differential deteriorating as more respondents say jobs hard to get.
Last week’s AI and China tailwinds along with generally positive economic data (cooler core PCE) helped drive upside in equities. Bulls have also pointed to refinancing activity highest since April 2022 with mortgage rates moving back toward 6% (the average 30 year mortgage currently 6.08%). Though at the same time, bears have pointed to consumer confidence suffering biggest decline in three years and S&P US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declining in September. Finally, some concerns also center around labor strife as Boeing union rejected latest offer from company and East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike expected early this week (40% of US shipping volume).
In other news, global easing cycle in the headlines with Swiss National Bank delivered its third consecutive rate cut and flagged potential for further easing, while probability of an European Central Bank rate cut in October picked up as well. Meanwhile, Japan’s ruling party picked Shigeru Ishiba as its next leader, positioning him to become prime minister in a surprise result that jolted the yen in hawkish implications. Ishiba commented midday Friday that Japan’s accommodative monetary policy will not change.. Elsewhere, Israel and Hezbollah were in the headlines again with Israel launching powerful strikes against the group throughout the week and signaling preparations for a ground assault against the Iran-backed group in Lebanon (a move that would drastically increase tensions). Israel killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in a strike Friday afternoon.
Another big jobs report coming Friday. Also this week: Sep ISM Manufacturing, Aug JOLTS, Aug Construction Spending; Sep ISM Services, Sep PMI Composite.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down by 1 last week. There are 587 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 36 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/26/2024 – In the week ending September 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,750 a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/6/2024 – The US Economyadded 142k nonfarm jobs in August and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents to $35.21. Hiring highlights include +31k Healthcare and +34k Construction.
Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents/0.4% to $35.21.
U3 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.2%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.9%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/4/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index –Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Personal Income – Released 9/27/2024 – Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 9/26/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent and in the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending that were offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 9/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $289.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 9.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $14.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $289.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/25/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised July rate of 751,000 but is 9.8 percent above the August 2023 estimate of 652,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/24/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 105.6 to 98.7 in September. The expectations index declined 4.6 points to 81.7. Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 9/19/2024 – Existing home sales in August decreased 2.5% from July and fell 4.2% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.86 million in August seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $416,700, up 3.1% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 9/18/2024 – August housing starts came in at 1,356,000, 9.6% below the July estimate and is 3.9% above the August 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.9% above the July rate at $1,406,000 but is 6.5% below the August 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.8% in August after falling 0.9% in July. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output was flat. Mining increased 0.8%. Total industrial production in August was the same as its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.0% in August, a rate that is 1.7% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 9/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.1% in August and are up 2.1% above August 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 9/9/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.0 percent in July. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 9/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in August for the second consecutive month indicating expansion in six of the eight months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 51.5 percent, 0.1 percentage higher than July’s reading of 51.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.8 billion in July, up $5.8 billion from $73.0 billion in June. July exports were $266.6 billion, $1.3 billion more than June exports. July imports were $345.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than June imports. The July increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.6 billion to $103.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $24.3 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 9/3/2024 – Construction spending during July 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,162.7 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,169.0 billion. The July figure is 6.7 percent above the July 2023 estimate of $2,027.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/3/2024 – The August Manufacturing PMI registered 47.2 percent, up 0.4 percent from 46.8 percent in July. The manufacturing sector contracted in August for the fifth consecutive month and the 21th time in the last 22 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 52nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 44.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the figure of 47.4 percent recorded in July. The Production Index reading of 44.8 percent is a 1.1-percentage point decrease compared to July’s figure of 45.9 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 8/30/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.825 million units in July.
Chicago PMI – Released 8/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in August but increased to 46.1 points up from 45.3 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in August. The marginal upward movement was driven by new orders, followed by production and supplier deliveries.Headline retail sales exceeded expectations, up 1.0% in July and are up 2.7% above July 2023.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Services PMI, JOLTS, and the September Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 39, 2024
New all-time highs again last week.
The S&P 500 posted another new ATH on Thursday. The Equal weighted S&P index outperformed the market cap weight slightly. Small caps underperformed the other indices. Notably in China, the Heng Seng Index had its best week in 26 years, ending up 13% on stimulus news from China’s Politburo. The big tech names were mostly higher with gains from Tesla and Nvidia offsetting declines from Amazon Microsoft. Treasuries were mostly weaker with rates climbing slightly. The dollar was weaker and Gold rose 0.8% to another new high. Crude Oil was down 3.9% in a volatile week of trading as worries over possible increase in Saudi output outweighed an uptick in tensions in the Middle East along with China stimulus news.
China stimulus, Micron earnings, and August core PCE were the big stories this week. Much of the focus was on the more aggressive than expected stimulus headlines out of China (and big bounce in under-owned China shares). AI secular growth theme was another tailwind after Micron Q4 results were ahead of expectations, though Street particularly impressed with Nov Q guidance that easily surpassed depressed market expectations and the consensus. Company’s better guidance was a function of price, tight supply and mix.
August core PCE was the big economic release this week. Core PCE inflation up just 0.1% in August, below 0.2% consensus; up to 2.7% y/y (a bit higher than July’s 2.6%). Personal income and consumption both higher, but decelerated from prior month’s pace. Headline m/m PCE was in line with consensus. Elsewhere in data this week, Preliminary August durable goods were ahead of consensus. Jobless claims slightly missed. Final Q2 GDP was 3.0%, in line with consensus and first revision. August new home sales declined less than expected m/m, while August pending home sales rose by less than expected. September consumer confidence came in below consensus, with labor-market differential deteriorating as more respondents say jobs hard to get.
Last week’s AI and China tailwinds along with generally positive economic data (cooler core PCE) helped drive upside in equities. Bulls have also pointed to refinancing activity highest since April 2022 with mortgage rates moving back toward 6% (the average 30 year mortgage currently 6.08%). Though at the same time, bears have pointed to consumer confidence suffering biggest decline in three years and S&P US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declining in September. Finally, some concerns also center around labor strife as Boeing union rejected latest offer from company and East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike expected early this week (40% of US shipping volume).
In other news, global easing cycle in the headlines with Swiss National Bank delivered its third consecutive rate cut and flagged potential for further easing, while probability of an European Central Bank rate cut in October picked up as well. Meanwhile, Japan’s ruling party picked Shigeru Ishiba as its next leader, positioning him to become prime minister in a surprise result that jolted the yen in hawkish implications. Ishiba commented midday Friday that Japan’s accommodative monetary policy will not change.. Elsewhere, Israel and Hezbollah were in the headlines again with Israel launching powerful strikes against the group throughout the week and signaling preparations for a ground assault against the Iran-backed group in Lebanon (a move that would drastically increase tensions). Israel killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in a strike Friday afternoon.
Another big jobs report coming Friday. Also this week: Sep ISM Manufacturing, Aug JOLTS, Aug Construction Spending; Sep ISM Services, Sep PMI Composite.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down by 1 last week. There are 587 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 36 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/26/2024 – In the week ending September 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,750 a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/6/2024 – The US Economyadded 142k nonfarm jobs in August and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents to $35.21. Hiring highlights include +31k Healthcare and +34k Construction.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/4/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Personal Income – Released 9/27/2024 – Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 9/26/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent and in the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending that were offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Durable Goods – Released 9/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $289.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 9.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $14.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $289.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/25/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 4.7 percent below the revised July rate of 751,000 but is 9.8 percent above the August 2023 estimate of 652,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/24/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 105.6 to 98.7 in September. The expectations index declined 4.6 points to 81.7. Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 9/19/2024 – Existing home sales in August decreased 2.5% from July and fell 4.2% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.86 million in August seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $416,700, up 3.1% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 9/18/2024 – August housing starts came in at 1,356,000, 9.6% below the July estimate and is 3.9% above the August 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.9% above the July rate at $1,406,000 but is 6.5% below the August 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/17/2024 – Industrial production increased 0.8% in August after falling 0.9% in July. Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Utilities output was flat. Mining increased 0.8%. Total industrial production in August was the same as its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 78.0% in August, a rate that is 1.7% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 9/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.1% in August and are up 2.1% above August 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 9/9/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.0 percent in July. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 9/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in August for the second consecutive month indicating expansion in six of the eight months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 51.5 percent, 0.1 percentage higher than July’s reading of 51.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.8 billion in July, up $5.8 billion from $73.0 billion in June. July exports were $266.6 billion, $1.3 billion more than June exports. July imports were $345.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than June imports. The July increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $5.6 billion to $103.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $24.3 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 9/3/2024 – Construction spending during July 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,162.7 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,169.0 billion. The July figure is 6.7 percent above the July 2023 estimate of $2,027.4 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/3/2024 – The August Manufacturing PMI registered 47.2 percent, up 0.4 percent from 46.8 percent in July. The manufacturing sector contracted in August for the fifth consecutive month and the 21th time in the last 22 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 52nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 44.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the figure of 47.4 percent recorded in July. The Production Index reading of 44.8 percent is a 1.1-percentage point decrease compared to July’s figure of 45.9 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 8/30/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.825 million units in July.
Chicago PMI – Released 8/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in August but increased to 46.1 points up from 45.3 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in August. The marginal upward movement was driven by new orders, followed by production and supplier deliveries.Headline retail sales exceeded expectations, up 1.0% in July and are up 2.7% above July 2023.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Services PMI, JOLTS, and the September Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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