Surprising job growth keeps another rate hike in sight
Long term yields reach decades old highs
Surprising Job Growth Will Keep the Fed Ready to Raise.
A better-than-expected jobs report on Friday caused equity markets to jump allowing the S&P500 and Nasdaq to end in the black for the week while the Dow and smallcaps ended down. September nonfarm payrolls, came in at 336K vs consensus for 163K. The prior two months also revised up (all previous 2023 revisions had been lower).
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%; softer average hourly earnings a bright spot, rising just 0.2% for the month. Futures dropped when the jobs report was released and the markets all opened to the downside. Markets took some time to digest the data and decided it wasn’t all bad.
The higher-for-longer backdrop was the major theme this week with Friday’s jobs report putting more questions in front of the Federal Reserve. The yield on the twenty-year treasury hit a 16-year high this week, closing at 5.13% The 10 and 30-year yield also moved up sharply closing at 4.78% and 4.95 respectively.
The magnitude and velocity of the move(s) higher sparked more talk about the potential for a “financial accident”, and this week saw a surge in the cost of credit protection and banks hit by concerns about unrealized losses on their bond portfolios.
Economic Updates
In addition to the jobs report it was a big week of economic updates, which overall demonstrated ongoing strength but also played into the Fed’s higher-for-longer rate approach. Tuesday’s August JOLTS report showed a sharp increase in the number of job openings, rising almost 700k month/m.
Weekly initial jobless claims also continued to undershoot consensus with the 4 week moving average falling to 209k the lowest since January. September’s ISM reports were a bit more mixed. Manufacturing came in higher than consensus but saw a notable slowing in prices-paid growth; Services was in line but reflected slowing growth in new orders.
It was not a news-heavy week apart from these (admittedly substantial) themes. There was a wealth of Fedspeak but not a lot that was incremental for monetary policy; Chicago’s Goolsbee said he sees few signs the economy is moving off the path for a soft landing, while San Francisco’s Daly argued the recent rate backup has had the equivalent tightening impact of another rate hike.
Political Update
There was also a lot of political commentary following last weekend’s deal to avert a government shutdown and the follow-on efforts by hardline Republicans to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, though the market took little notice beyond the events’ highlights of political dysfunction and the possibility of a shutdown shifting to November.
The UAW declined to widen its strike this week, on Friday citing significant progress in negotiations (particularly GM’s decision to put EV battery plant workers under the union’s master agreement).
While the tone at times this week was decidedly negative (and underscored by the narrow distribution of gains), the bullish narrative continued to have some strength. Positive economic data helped keep the soft-/no-landing thesis very relevant, with a slight deceleration in average hourly earnings the key dovish takeaway from Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
Sector Update
The week’s notable drop in oil amid worries of flagging demand helped ease a key inflationary overhang. Some analysts argued that the recent Treasury selloff has been overdone, with multiple firms noting that fundamental factors do not adequately explain the latest yield surge.
The market remains cautiously optimistic about solid Q3 earnings. And oversold conditions alongside bearish positioning indicators may offer the potential for equities to rebound after what has been a 6%+ drop off late July’s YTD highs.
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 this week. There are 619 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 143 from last year.
Metals Complex
This Week’s Employment Picture
September Jobs Report– BLS Summary– Released 10/6/2023 – The US economy added 336k non-farm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $33.88. Hiring highlights include +70k Education and Health Services, +96k Leisure and Hospitality, and +73k Government.
Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents/0.2% to $33.88.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.0%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/5/2023 – In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000 increasing 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 208,750 a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 10/3/2023 – The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/28/2023 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0% for the 3-month period ending in June 2023. The 12-month period ending in June 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.5. The 12-month period ending June 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent over the 12-month June 2023 and increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. Benefit costs increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2023 and increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Links take you to the data source.
Consumer Credit– Released 10/6/2023 – Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent in August. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 10/5/2023 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $5.5 billion to $84.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.0 billion to $26.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 10/4/2023 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 54.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 10/2/2023 – Construction spending during August 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,983.5 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,973.7 billion. The August figure is 7.4 percent above the August 2022 estimate of $1,847.3 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2023 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 49.0 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a month of expansion following nine months of contraction. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50.0 percent.
Recent Economic Data
Links take you to the data source.
Chicago PMI – Released 9/29/2023 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September decreasing to 44.1 points down from 48.7 points in August. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region, and it was stronger than the previous month.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 9/29/2023 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.035 million units in August.
Personal Income– Released 9/29/2023 – Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP– Released 9/28/2023 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates which had GDP increasing at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.
Durable Goods – Released 9/27/2023 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $284.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.6 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Machinery, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $37.8 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/26/2023 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.7 percent below the revised July rate of 739,000 but is 5.8 percent above the August 2022 estimate of 638,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The average sales price was $514,000. At the end of August, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 436,000, a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/26/2023 – Consumer Confidence decreased for the second consecutive month in September to 103.0, down from 108.7 in August. Expectations fell back below 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024. Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.
Existing Home Sales – Released 9/21/2023 – August 2023 brought 4.04 million in sales, a decrease of 0.7% from July. The median sales price was $407,100. The current unsold housing inventory was 3.3 months of inventory.
Housing Starts – Released 9/19/2023 – August housing starts came in at 1,283,000, 11.3% below the July estimate and 14.8% below the August 2022 rate. Building permits were 6.9% above the July rate at $1,543,000 and 2.7% below the August 2022 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/15/2023 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in August. Utilities output increased 0.9%. Manufacturing increased 0.1%. Mining increased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 79.7% in August, in line with its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 9/14/2023 – Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in August and are up 2.5% above August 2022.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/14/2023 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/13/2023 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Next week we get data on CPI and PPI.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 40, 2023
Week 40 Key Talking Points
Surprising Job Growth Will Keep the Fed Ready to Raise.
A better-than-expected jobs report on Friday caused equity markets to jump allowing the S&P500 and Nasdaq to end in the black for the week while the Dow and smallcaps ended down. September nonfarm payrolls, came in at 336K vs consensus for 163K. The prior two months also revised up (all previous 2023 revisions had been lower).
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%; softer average hourly earnings a bright spot, rising just 0.2% for the month. Futures dropped when the jobs report was released and the markets all opened to the downside. Markets took some time to digest the data and decided it wasn’t all bad.
The higher-for-longer backdrop was the major theme this week with Friday’s jobs report putting more questions in front of the Federal Reserve. The yield on the twenty-year treasury hit a 16-year high this week, closing at 5.13% The 10 and 30-year yield also moved up sharply closing at 4.78% and 4.95 respectively.
The magnitude and velocity of the move(s) higher sparked more talk about the potential for a “financial accident”, and this week saw a surge in the cost of credit protection and banks hit by concerns about unrealized losses on their bond portfolios.Economic Updates
In addition to the jobs report it was a big week of economic updates, which overall demonstrated ongoing strength but also played into the Fed’s higher-for-longer rate approach. Tuesday’s August JOLTS report showed a sharp increase in the number of job openings, rising almost 700k month/m.
Weekly initial jobless claims also continued to undershoot consensus with the 4 week moving average falling to 209k the lowest since January. September’s ISM reports were a bit more mixed. Manufacturing came in higher than consensus but saw a notable slowing in prices-paid growth; Services was in line but reflected slowing growth in new orders.
It was not a news-heavy week apart from these (admittedly substantial) themes. There was a wealth of Fedspeak but not a lot that was incremental for monetary policy; Chicago’s Goolsbee said he sees few signs the economy is moving off the path for a soft landing, while San Francisco’s Daly argued the recent rate backup has had the equivalent tightening impact of another rate hike.
Political Update
There was also a lot of political commentary following last weekend’s deal to avert a government shutdown and the follow-on efforts by hardline Republicans to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, though the market took little notice beyond the events’ highlights of political dysfunction and the possibility of a shutdown shifting to November.
The UAW declined to widen its strike this week, on Friday citing significant progress in negotiations (particularly GM’s decision to put EV battery plant workers under the union’s master agreement).
While the tone at times this week was decidedly negative (and underscored by the narrow distribution of gains), the bullish narrative continued to have some strength. Positive economic data helped keep the soft-/no-landing thesis very relevant, with a slight deceleration in average hourly earnings the key dovish takeaway from Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
Sector Update
The week’s notable drop in oil amid worries of flagging demand helped ease a key inflationary overhang. Some analysts argued that the recent Treasury selloff has been overdone, with multiple firms noting that fundamental factors do not adequately explain the latest yield surge.
The market remains cautiously optimistic about solid Q3 earnings. And oversold conditions alongside bearish positioning indicators may offer the potential for equities to rebound after what has been a 6%+ drop off late July’s YTD highs.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
July FOMC Statement July Fed Minutes Balance Sheet Reduction Plan Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2022
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 this week. There are 619 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 143 from last year.
Metals Complex
This Week’s Employment Picture
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 10/6/2023 – The US economy added 336k non-farm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $33.88. Hiring highlights include +70k Education and Health Services, +96k Leisure and Hospitality, and +73k Government.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/5/2023 – In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000 increasing 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 208,750 a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 10/3/2023 – The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/28/2023 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0% for the 3-month period ending in June 2023. The 12-month period ending in June 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.5. The 12-month period ending June 2022 increased 5.1%. Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent over the 12-month June 2023 and increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. Benefit costs increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2023 and increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data
Links take you to the data source.
Consumer Credit – Released 10/6/2023 – Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent in August. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 10/5/2023 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $5.5 billion to $84.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.0 billion to $26.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/4/2023 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 54.5 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 10/2/2023 – Construction spending during August 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,983.5 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,973.7 billion. The August figure is 7.4 percent above the August 2022 estimate of $1,847.3 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2023 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 49.0 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a month of expansion following nine months of contraction. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50.0 percent.
Recent Economic Data
Links take you to the data source.
Chicago PMI – Released 9/29/2023 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September decreasing to 44.1 points down from 48.7 points in August. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region, and it was stronger than the previous month.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 9/29/2023 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.035 million units in August.
Personal Income – Released 9/29/2023 – Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP – Released 9/28/2023 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates which had GDP increasing at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.
Durable Goods – Released 9/27/2023 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $284.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.6 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Machinery, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $37.8 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/26/2023 – Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.7 percent below the revised July rate of 739,000 but is 5.8 percent above the August 2022 estimate of 638,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The average sales price was $514,000. At the end of August, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 436,000, a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate.
Consumer Confidence – Released 9/26/2023 – Consumer Confidence decreased for the second consecutive month in September to 103.0, down from 108.7 in August. Expectations fell back below 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024. Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.
Existing Home Sales – Released 9/21/2023 – August 2023 brought 4.04 million in sales, a decrease of 0.7% from July. The median sales price was $407,100. The current unsold housing inventory was 3.3 months of inventory.
Housing Starts – Released 9/19/2023 – August housing starts came in at 1,283,000, 11.3% below the July estimate and 14.8% below the August 2022 rate. Building permits were 6.9% above the July rate at $1,543,000 and 2.7% below the August 2022 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/15/2023 – Industrial production increased 0.4% in August. Utilities output increased 0.9%. Manufacturing increased 0.1%. Mining increased 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased to 79.7% in August, in line with its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 9/14/2023 – Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in August and are up 2.5% above August 2022.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/14/2023 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/13/2023 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Next week we get data on CPI and PPI.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data – Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info
Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other Links
1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital Bailout
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