Weekly Market Update | Week 43, 2024


US equities were mostly lower last week. The S&P 500 finished the week down and broke a streak of six-straight weekly gains. However, the Nasdaq Composite edged out a gain for the week (up for seventh-straight week) on big tech upside and ended less than 1% off its July record close. Treasuries were weaker across the curve. The dollar index was up 0.8%, with yen weakness again the big FX story. Gold finished the week up 0.9% and marked a fresh record high. Bitcoin futures were down 2%. WTI crude was up 4.5%.

The biggest focus was on yields ticking higher, extending this month’s sizable jump with the 2Y back above 4% and 10Y back to July levels (before the Fed cut by 50 bp in August). The latest Treasury weakness was tabbed to factors including rising Trump/GOP sweep odds given potential deficit and tariff impacts, rising scrutiny over debt/deficit, and more soft/no-landing optimism. This week also saw some cautious corporate takeaways that added some cracks to the resilient consumer and AI secular growth themes. Earnings takeaways also leaned cautious this week, with the percentage of companies beating revenue expectations down 4pp this week, now below the one- and five-year averages. There has also been growing skepticism around China stimulus, which some economists say is unlikely enough to turn the Chinese economy around.

However, soft/no-landing optimism remains a key piece of the bullish narrative. Data this week added support to the resilient economy narrative, including US flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs coming in ahead of estimates, initial claims the lowest in a month. Michigan Final 1Y inflation expectations marked down to match YTD lows, while the latest Beige Book offered some more soft landing takeaways. Existing home sales also beat and hit the highest level in 16 months, though existing homes ales fell to the slowest pace in 14 years. Positive seasonality, positioning (notable falling exposure to Mag 7), record cash on the sidelines, and the coming removal of the election overhang which could lead to another pain trade higher have also been cited as other upside risks.

Despite some hawkish Fed repricing, markets continue to see a 95% chance of a 25 bp cut at the November meeting, and an additional 125 bp of cuts through the end of 2025, though at a slower pace than previously expected. Some analysts said that the rising GOP sweep odds have added uncertainty to the 2025 rate cut path with potentially hawkish implications, though others have argued the market has swung too far in a hawkish direction given still-falling inflation and a Fed still expected to cut.

According to latest Earnings Insight report from FactSet, 37% of S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings. Noted that 75% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, below the 78% one-year average and the five-year average of 77%. In addition, 59% have surpassed consensus sales expectations, below the 62% one-year average and the five-year average of 69%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.7% above expectations, better than the 5.5% one-year average positive surprise rate but below the five-year average of 8.5%. BofA’s latest Earnings Tracker report noted that while cyclical names still flagging sluggish demand, there has been a big uptick in mentions of “bottom”. Added that historically, this dynamic has marked an inflection in EPS. 

The biggest event on next week’s economic calendar is October payrolls, which is expected to show a deceleration in headline payroll growth to 125K, which would be the third-lowest of the year. Previews noted the ongoing Boeing strike could impact payrolls by over 30K for the month. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly wages are expected to tick down 0.1pp to 0.3% m/m and hold at 4.0% y/y. Other data next week include the Dallas Fed index Monday (10:30 ET); September JOLTS job openings and October Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the first read of Q3 GDP, and September pending home sales on Wednesday; September Core PCE on Thursday; and October ISM Manufacturing on Friday.

Fixed Income

Yield Curve

September FOMC Statement   July Minutes   Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet    Federal Reserve Dot Plots  

Treasury.gov yields    FOMC Policy Normalization Statement     Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024

Foreign Exchange Market

Energy Complex

The Baker Hughes rig count  was flat last week. There are 585 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 40 from last year.

Metals Complex  

Employment Picture  

Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 10/24/2024 – In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 238,500 an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

September Jobs Report  – BLS Summary – Released 10/4/2024 – The US Economy added 254k nonfarm jobs in September and the Unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.36.  Hiring highlights include +69k Food Services and drinking places, +45k Healthcare, and +31k Government.

  • Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents/0.4% to $35.36.
  • U3 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.2% to 7.7%.
  • The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.
  • Average work week decreased 0.1 to 34.2 hours.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/1/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.

Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly

This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source

Durable Goods – Released 10/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.8% to $284.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $287.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $94.4 billion.

New Residential Sales – Released 10/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300.  The average sales price was $501,000. 

Existing Home Sales – Released 10/23/2024 – Existing home sales in September decreased 1.0% from August and fell 3.5% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 3.84 million in September seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,500, up 3.0% from one year ago.

Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source

Housing Starts – Released 10/18/2024 – September housing starts came in at 1,354,000, 0.5% below the August estimate and is 0.7% above the September 2023 rate. Building permits were 2.9% below the August rate at $1,470,000 and is 5.7% below the September 2023 rate. 

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 10/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in September after gaining 0.3% in August. Manufacturing decreased 0.4%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining decreased 0.6%. For the third quarter, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 0.6%.Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.5% in September, a rate that is 2.2% below its long-run average.

Retail Sales – Released 10/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in September and are up 1.7% above September 2023.

Producer Price Index – Released 10/11/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted. Final demand was unchanged in August and July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Consumer Price Index – Released 10/10/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in August and 0.2% in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

U.S. Trade Balance – Released 10/8/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $70.4 billion in August, sown $8.5 billion from $78.9 billion in July. August exports were $271.8 billion, $5.3 billion more than July exports. August imports were $342.2 billion, $3.2 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.4 billion to $94.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $24.4 billion.

Consumer Credit – Released 10/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1 percent in August. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.

PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the third consecutive month indicating expansion in seven of the nine months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 3.4 percent higher than August’s reading of 51.5 percent.

U.S. Construction Spending – Released 10/1/2024 – Construction spending during August 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,131.9 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $2,133.9 billion. The August figure is 4.1 percent above the August 2023 estimate of $2,047.4 billion.

PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/1/2024 – The September Manufacturing PMI registered 47.2 percent, unchanged from August . The manufacturing sector contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month and the 22nd time in the last 23 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 44.6 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 49.8 percent is a 5.0-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 44.8 percent.

Chicago PMI – Released 9/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in September but increased to 46.6 points up from 46.1 points in August. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the tenth consecutive month in September. Chicago PMI has remained in contractionary territory for 24 of the past 25 months. In September order backlogs and employment improved slightly while supplier deliveries, new orders, and production reduced further. Also, prices paid remained elevated for the second consecutive month.

US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 9/27/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.210 million units in August.

Personal Income – Released 9/27/2024 – Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent).

Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 9/26/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” and “advance” estimates.  In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent and in the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending that were offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.  

Consumer Confidence – Released 9/24/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 105.6 to 98.7 in September. The expectations index declined 4.6 points to 81.7. Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years.September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.

This week we get data on Consumer Confidence, the Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP, Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, the Employment Cost Index, JOLTS, and the October Jobs Report.

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Data Sources: 

Conference Board Economic Indicators   Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)   Congressional Budget Office (CBO)     U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)    Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)

CME Fed Watch   U.S. Treasury – Yields   U.S. Census Bureau    Institute for Supply Management (ISM)    Weekly DOL Employment Data    BLS Monthly Jobs Report    JOLTS      All capital in one visualization 2020

US Energy Admn (EIA)   BLS Consumer Price Index CPI      BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW    NY Fed Nowcast GDP     US Census Bureau Housing Starts   U.S. Energy Admn

Consumer Credit  USCB Retail Sales   Construction Spending      Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017   NY Empire Index    Philadelphia Federal Reserve   P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research

Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com  StockCharts.com – Financial Charts    Exponential vs Simple Moving Average

Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo    Hunt Brothers Silver    Asian Contagion   Long-Term Capital bailout