US equities partially recovered last week, bouncing after the post-election euphoria faded. The week’s outperformers included autos, ag machinery, E&Ps, oil services, entertainment, steel, containerboard, media, HPCs, regional banks, biotech, credit cards, utilities, and REITs. There were not a lot of areas of outright decline though laggards included hospitals, airlines, casual diners, staples retailers, and China tech. Treasurieswere mixed with the curve flattening. The dollar was stronger on the, particularly vs the euro. The DXY +0.8% logged its eighth straight week of gains, its longest since an 11-week run higher through September 2023. Gold was up 5.5%, rallying after three consecutive weeks of decline. Oil was higher, with WTI settling up 6.3% and more than erasing the previous week’s slide.
There was a big focus on corporate results last week, largely focused on the long-awaited NVDA earnings. Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings report exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $35 billion, up 94% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter. Big retail reports also began coming in, Walmart outperformed expectations while Target fell sharply on sales and earnings shortfalls.
The week saw a fairly high volume of Fedspeak though none of it groundbreaking, mostly stressing that the Fed should move deliberately and be guided by the data. Richmond’s Barkin (voter) also said this week the US is more vulnerable to inflation shocks in the past, and that businesses are concerned about the inflationary effects of Trump tariff and immigration proposals. The more hawkish bent to Fedspeak (in addition to continued solid economic data) pushed market-based odds of a December pause somewhat higher, with Fedwatch futures data now implying a ~47% vs ~27% a week ago. The market is also pricing in just two 2025 rate cuts, down from four as recently as mid-October. Geopolitics also reared its head, with Ukraine firing US-made missiles into Russia and Putin responding with a strike by a new type of hypersonic missile. US politics was also on the market’s mind.
Economic data came in largely to the positive. Initial jobless claims declined for the third straight week, though continuing claims continued to rise and hit their highest level in three years. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing unexpectedly flipped back into contraction with new orders decreasing. November US composite PMI printed at its highest level since April 2022, driven by continued strength in services (though there were some signs of optimism for manufacturing as well). November’s final UMich consumer sentiment report decreased a bit from the flash reading, but was still improved m/m; year-ahead inflation expectations declined slightly. On the housing front, October housing starts missed (with some blame on weather impacts) while NAHB homebuilder sentiment came in at the highest level in seven months. Existing home sales were better, with the report noting some benefit from improving inventories.
Even with the short holiday week several notable economic releases come out. Tuesday will see October new home sales and November consumer confidence. Wednesday we get October durable goods, October PCE, the second estimate for Q3 GDP, weekly initial jobless claims, and October pending home sales. Fedspeak is expected to be light but the minutes from the FOMC’s 6-7 November meeting will be released on Tuesday at 2pm Eastern time.
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 583 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 39 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 11/21/2024 – In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 217,750 a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
October Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 11/1/2024 – The US Economyadded 12k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.46. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +40k Government, -49k Professional and Business Services, and -46k Manufacturing.
Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents/0.4% to $35.46.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.7%.
The labor force participation rate was relatively unchanged at 62.6%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/29/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 11/21/2024 – Existing home sales in October increased 3.4% from September and increased 2.9% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 3.96 million in October seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $407,200, up 4.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 11/19/2024 – October housing starts came in at 1,311,000, 3.1% below the September estimate and is 4.0% below the October 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.6% below the September rate at $1,416,000 and is 7.7% below the October 2023 rate.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 11/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% in September. Manufacturing decreased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.1% in October, a rate that is 2.6% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 11/15/2024– Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in October and are up 2.8% above October 2023.
Producer Price Index– Released 11/14/2024– The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.
Consumer Price Index –Released 11/13/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing the same as in each of the last three months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 11/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 percent in September. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 11/5/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 billion in September, up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion less than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, $10.3 billion less than August imports. The September increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $14.2 billion to $109.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 11/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the fourth consecutive month indicating expansion in eight of the ten months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 56.0 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 1.1 percent higher than September’s reading of 54.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/1/2024 – Construction spending during September 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.8 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised August estimate of $2,146.0 billion. The September figure is 4.6 percent above the September 2023 estimate of $2,055.2 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/1/2024 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.5 percent, 0.7 percent lower Compared to September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (46.2 percent) is 3.6 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 49.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.768 million units in September.
Chicago PMI– Released 10/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in October and fell to 41.6 from 46.6 points in September. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 11th successive month in October, and at a solid pace, marking the steepest decline since May.
Personal Income – Released 10/31/2024 – Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).
Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 10/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/29/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 99.2 to 108.7 in October. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased by 6.3 points to 89.1, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income.
Durable Goods – Released 10/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.8% to $284.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $287.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $94.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 10/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000.
This week we get data on New Residential Sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, the 2nd Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP, Personal Income, and Chicago PMI. This week we get data on Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 47, 2024
US equities partially recovered last week, bouncing after the post-election euphoria faded. The week’s outperformers included autos, ag machinery, E&Ps, oil services, entertainment, steel, containerboard, media, HPCs, regional banks, biotech, credit cards, utilities, and REITs. There were not a lot of areas of outright decline though laggards included hospitals, airlines, casual diners, staples retailers, and China tech. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening. The dollar was stronger on the, particularly vs the euro. The DXY +0.8% logged its eighth straight week of gains, its longest since an 11-week run higher through September 2023. Gold was up 5.5%, rallying after three consecutive weeks of decline. Oil was higher, with WTI settling up 6.3% and more than erasing the previous week’s slide.
There was a big focus on corporate results last week, largely focused on the long-awaited NVDA earnings. Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings report exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $35 billion, up 94% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter. Big retail reports also began coming in, Walmart outperformed expectations while Target fell sharply on sales and earnings shortfalls.
The week saw a fairly high volume of Fedspeak though none of it groundbreaking, mostly stressing that the Fed should move deliberately and be guided by the data. Richmond’s Barkin (voter) also said this week the US is more vulnerable to inflation shocks in the past, and that businesses are concerned about the inflationary effects of Trump tariff and immigration proposals. The more hawkish bent to Fedspeak (in addition to continued solid economic data) pushed market-based odds of a December pause somewhat higher, with Fedwatch futures data now implying a ~47% vs ~27% a week ago. The market is also pricing in just two 2025 rate cuts, down from four as recently as mid-October. Geopolitics also reared its head, with Ukraine firing US-made missiles into Russia and Putin responding with a strike by a new type of hypersonic missile. US politics was also on the market’s mind.
Economic data came in largely to the positive. Initial jobless claims declined for the third straight week, though continuing claims continued to rise and hit their highest level in three years. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing unexpectedly flipped back into contraction with new orders decreasing. November US composite PMI printed at its highest level since April 2022, driven by continued strength in services (though there were some signs of optimism for manufacturing as well). November’s final UMich consumer sentiment report decreased a bit from the flash reading, but was still improved m/m; year-ahead inflation expectations declined slightly. On the housing front, October housing starts missed (with some blame on weather impacts) while NAHB homebuilder sentiment came in at the highest level in seven months. Existing home sales were better, with the report noting some benefit from improving inventories.
Even with the short holiday week several notable economic releases come out. Tuesday will see October new home sales and November consumer confidence. Wednesday we get October durable goods, October PCE, the second estimate for Q3 GDP, weekly initial jobless claims, and October pending home sales. Fedspeak is expected to be light but the minutes from the FOMC’s 6-7 November meeting will be released on Tuesday at 2pm Eastern time.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 583 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 39 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 11/21/2024 – In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 217,750 a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
October Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/1/2024 – The US Economy added 12k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.46. Hiring highlights include +52k Healthcare, +40k Government, -49k Professional and Business Services, and -46k Manufacturing.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 10/29/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 11/21/2024 – Existing home sales in October increased 3.4% from September and increased 2.9% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 3.96 million in October seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $407,200, up 4.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 11/19/2024 – October housing starts came in at 1,311,000, 3.1% below the September estimate and is 4.0% below the October 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.6% below the September rate at $1,416,000 and is 7.7% below the October 2023 rate.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 11/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% in September. Manufacturing decreased 0.5%. Utilities output increased 0.7%. Mining increased 0.3%. Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.1% in October, a rate that is 2.6% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 11/15/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in October and are up 2.8% above October 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 11/14/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.
Consumer Price Index – Released 11/13/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing the same as in each of the last three months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 11/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 percent in September. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/5/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 billion in September, up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion less than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, $10.3 billion less than August imports. The September increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $14.2 billion to $109.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 11/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the fourth consecutive month indicating expansion in eight of the ten months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 56.0 percent, the highest reading since February 2023 and 1.1 percent higher than September’s reading of 54.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/1/2024 – Construction spending during September 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.8 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised August estimate of $2,146.0 billion. The September figure is 4.6 percent above the September 2023 estimate of $2,055.2 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/1/2024 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.5 percent, 0.7 percent lower Compared to September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (46.2 percent) is 3.6 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 49.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.768 million units in September.
Chicago PMI – Released 10/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in October and fell to 41.6 from 46.6 points in September. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 11th successive month in October, and at a solid pace, marking the steepest decline since May.
Personal Income – Released 10/31/2024 – Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).
Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 10/30/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/29/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 99.2 to 108.7 in October. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased by 6.3 points to 89.1, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income.
Durable Goods – Released 10/25/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.8% to $284.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $287.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $94.4 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 10/24/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000.
This week we get data on New Residential Sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, the 2nd Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP, Personal Income, and Chicago PMI. This week we get data on Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Categories:
Tags: