US markets were higher in January after ending mostly lower last month. Breadth was positive with the equal-weighted S&P outperforming official index by over 70 bps. Still, S&P 500 reached new record highs this month. Small-caps had a solid month as well with the Russell 2000 clawing back some of its 8% loss from December. Treasuries were firmer with some yield curve steepening. Dollar Index was down 0.2% with notable strength from yen. Gold was up 7.1%, reaching new record highs.Bitcoin futures were up 9.3%. WTI crude was up 1.1% with feared supply disruptions from sanctions on Russian oil in mind and possible 10% tariffs on Canadian oil.
Developments out of Washington dominated headlines this month with President Trump beginning his new term. Market continued to benefit from animal spirits and deregulation dynamics (along with favorable late-January seasonality. Strong corporate buybacks, and some rate reprieve), however, notable uncertainty remains around tariffs (though so far analysts notetariff actions have largely not materialized yet with no immediate implementation following his inauguration). Trump did threaten to slap 25% tariffs on Colombia over a migrant dispute though ultimately backed off after Colombia acquiesced. Still, news reports indicated Trump aides want to hit Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs as soon as 1-Feb and 10% against China. Additionally, Trump flagged tariffs on chips, steel, aluminum and copper in near future and noted he has not settled on a universal tariff rate, though commented it will be “much bigger” than initial 2.5% Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly favored. Beyond tariffs, there is still no clear GOP consensus on how to pay for Trump’s tax cuts, with hardliners pushing for deficit reduction and others concerned that such an approach could harm constituents.
Focusing on the market, AI-growth narrative took a hit after China’s low-cost DeepSeek AI model sparked selloff in AI-linked stocks with scrutiny on extent of US tech spending on their models, pricing power, and broader questions about America’s lead in global AI race. Concerns around Big Tech surfaced amid already existing worries around stretched valuations. Thoughts that AI applications could be implemented at a fraction of expected costs raising questions around expansive capex plans. GLP-1 theme was also scrutinized with Lilly pressured by weaker guidance it attributed to softer Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue. However, on the more positive side, consumer and labor market remained strong with Goldman Sachs out bullish on US growth in 2025, forecasting a 2.4% expansion vs the 2.0% consensus.
Regarding earnings thus far, 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. Big Tech was mixed this month. NFLX +9.6% beat on all key metrics, including a record nearly 19M paid net adds. Company also raised its 2025 outlook despite incremental FX headwinds (USD strength flagged as a growing earnings/revenue headwind across broader Q4 earnings). META +17.7% was a standout with takeaways focused on broad product tailwind from AI initiatives. TSLA +0.2% Q4 EPS missed on weak GM performance. AAPL -5.7% EPS was better with GM upside, though iPhone/Wearables/China light. MSFT -6.5% was a laggard with continued deceleration of Azure growth. Elsewhere, banking was up big with focus on deregulation (JPM +11.5%, WFC+12.2%). DFS +16.0% and COF+14.2% also provided tailwind for financials. Other outperformers included hospitals, managed care (HUM +15.6%), China tech (BABA +16.5%), precious metals miners, ag chemicals, machinery, railways (CP +9.9%), cruiselines (RCL +15.5%, CCL +11.0%), auto retailers. Underperformers included REITs, semis, (NVDA -15.8%, INTC -6.2%), tech hardware (AAPL –5.7%), food (HSY -11.8%, MDLZ –2.9%), beverages (STZ -18.2%), apparel retailers (ANF -20.1%), parcels/logistics (UPS -9.4%, FDX -5.8%), E&C, household products, and P&C insurance (wildfires).
Moving to the Fed, January FOMC meeting held rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, as widely expected. Takeaways were uneventful (statement leaned hawkish, Powell leaned dovish) with market not expecting another rate cut until June. At the press conference, Powell noted the Fed has no need to hurry. Also said recent inflation readings have been good and could get help from easing shelter inflation. Analysts generally see an extended hold from the Fed moving forward though some say in-line inflation readings possibly leading to cuts by midyear. Beyond the FOMC, Fedspeak continued to have a cautious bend this month with officials calling for a softer pace of rate cuts this year with relatively slow progress on inflation. December FOMC minutes flagged inflation risks to the upside had increased. However, Waller notably said he believes more rate cuts will be appropriate and does not expect Trump tariff policy to meaningfully impact inflation. In other central banking news, ECB cut rates by 25 bps to 2.75%, while BoJ raised its key interest rate to about 0.5% from 0.25%, noting inflation is holding at desirable level.
On the economic data front, December core CPI came in slightly ahead of consensus, while headline was slightly below. Analyst takeaways noted release suggests core CPI inflation trend is still slowing toward the FOMC’s target, particularly afterDecember PPI also came in cooler than expected. However, December nonfarm payrolls was much hotter than expected, growing 256K m/m vs consensus 150K-160K, while unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%. Report reaffirmed growing expectations that Fed will be on an extended hold. Elsewhere, December retail sales slightly missed though control group beat with tariffs flagged as an area of uncertainty for retail. December PCE was in line with consensus with consumer spending coming in ahead of expectations. Meanwhile, December ISM Manufacturing Index beat though employment fell while prices increased.
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 6 last week. There are 582 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 1/30/2025 – In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 212,500 a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 1/10/2025 – The US Economyadded 256k nonfarm jobs in December and the Unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.69. Hiring highlights include +46k Healthcare, +43k Retail Trade, +33k Government, and +23k in Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.69.
U3 unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.2% to 7.5%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 1/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.798 million units in December.
Chicago PMI– Released 1/31/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 39.5 from 36.9 points in December. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 14th successive month in January. New orders rebounded by 13.8 points. Production increased by 4.0 points, matching the level seen in November. Inventories increased by 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023, following four consecutive months of decline. However, employment dropped 9.0 points, to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Regarding price development, prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive fall and the lowest level since July 2024.
Personal Income – Released 1/31/2025 – Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $79.7 billion (0.4 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6 billion (0.7 percent).
Advance Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 1/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Durable Goods – Released 1/28/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $6.3 billion or 2.2% to $276.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.0% November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.4%. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, led the decrease, $6.9 billion or 7.4% to $86.1 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 1/28/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 109.5 to 104.1 in January. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 2.6 points to 83.9, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month. All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.
New Residential Sales – Released 1/27/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent above the revised November rate of 674,000 and is 6.7 percent above the December 2023 estimate of 654,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2024 was $427,000. The average sales price was $513,600.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales –Released 1/24/2025 – Existing home sales in December increased 2.2% from November and increased 9.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.24 million in December seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,400, up 6.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 1/17/2025 – December housing starts came in at 1,499,000, 15.8% above the November estimate but is 4.4% below the December 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.7% below the November rate at $1,483,000 and is 3.1% below the December 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 1/17/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Manufacturing increased 0.6%. Utilities output increased 2.1%. Mining increased 1.8%. Total industrial production in December was 0.5% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.6% in December, a rate that is 2.1% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 1/16/2025– Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in December and are up 3.9% above December 2023.
Consumer Price Index –Released 1/15/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in November. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index– Released 1/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in December.
Consumer Credit–Released 1/8/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent in November. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 1/7/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $5.4 billion to $103.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $25.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 1/7/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the sixth consecutive month indicating expansion in ten of the twelve months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent 2.0 percent higher than November’s reading of 52.1 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/3/2025 – The December Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 percent, 0.9 percent higher compared to November. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 52.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 50.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 3.5 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/2/2024 – Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, almost unchanged from the October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of $2,090.7 billion.
This week we get data on U.S. Construction Spending, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, JOLTS, and the January Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 5, 2024
One Down – Eleven to go.
US markets were higher in January after ending mostly lower last month. Breadth was positive with the equal-weighted S&P outperforming official index by over 70 bps. Still, S&P 500 reached new record highs this month. Small-caps had a solid month as well with the Russell 2000 clawing back some of its 8% loss from December. Treasuries were firmer with some yield curve steepening. Dollar Index was down 0.2% with notable strength from yen. Gold was up 7.1%, reaching new record highs.Bitcoin futures were up 9.3%. WTI crude was up 1.1% with feared supply disruptions from sanctions on Russian oil in mind and possible 10% tariffs on Canadian oil.
Developments out of Washington dominated headlines this month with President Trump beginning his new term. Market continued to benefit from animal spirits and deregulation dynamics (along with favorable late-January seasonality. Strong corporate buybacks, and some rate reprieve), however, notable uncertainty remains around tariffs (though so far analysts notetariff actions have largely not materialized yet with no immediate implementation following his inauguration). Trump did threaten to slap 25% tariffs on Colombia over a migrant dispute though ultimately backed off after Colombia acquiesced. Still, news reports indicated Trump aides want to hit Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs as soon as 1-Feb and 10% against China. Additionally, Trump flagged tariffs on chips, steel, aluminum and copper in near future and noted he has not settled on a universal tariff rate, though commented it will be “much bigger” than initial 2.5% Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly favored. Beyond tariffs, there is still no clear GOP consensus on how to pay for Trump’s tax cuts, with hardliners pushing for deficit reduction and others concerned that such an approach could harm constituents.
Focusing on the market, AI-growth narrative took a hit after China’s low-cost DeepSeek AI model sparked selloff in AI-linked stocks with scrutiny on extent of US tech spending on their models, pricing power, and broader questions about America’s lead in global AI race. Concerns around Big Tech surfaced amid already existing worries around stretched valuations. Thoughts that AI applications could be implemented at a fraction of expected costs raising questions around expansive capex plans. GLP-1 theme was also scrutinized with Lilly pressured by weaker guidance it attributed to softer Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue. However, on the more positive side, consumer and labor market remained strong with Goldman Sachs out bullish on US growth in 2025, forecasting a 2.4% expansion vs the 2.0% consensus.
Regarding earnings thus far, 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. Big Tech was mixed this month. NFLX +9.6% beat on all key metrics, including a record nearly 19M paid net adds. Company also raised its 2025 outlook despite incremental FX headwinds (USD strength flagged as a growing earnings/revenue headwind across broader Q4 earnings). META +17.7% was a standout with takeaways focused on broad product tailwind from AI initiatives. TSLA +0.2% Q4 EPS missed on weak GM performance. AAPL -5.7% EPS was better with GM upside, though iPhone/Wearables/China light. MSFT -6.5% was a laggard with continued deceleration of Azure growth. Elsewhere, banking was up big with focus on deregulation (JPM +11.5%, WFC+12.2%). DFS +16.0% and COF+14.2% also provided tailwind for financials. Other outperformers included hospitals, managed care (HUM +15.6%), China tech (BABA +16.5%), precious metals miners, ag chemicals, machinery, railways (CP +9.9%), cruiselines (RCL +15.5%, CCL +11.0%), auto retailers. Underperformers included REITs, semis, (NVDA -15.8%, INTC -6.2%), tech hardware (AAPL –5.7%), food (HSY -11.8%, MDLZ –2.9%), beverages (STZ -18.2%), apparel retailers (ANF -20.1%), parcels/logistics (UPS -9.4%, FDX -5.8%), E&C, household products, and P&C insurance (wildfires).
Moving to the Fed, January FOMC meeting held rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, as widely expected. Takeaways were uneventful (statement leaned hawkish, Powell leaned dovish) with market not expecting another rate cut until June. At the press conference, Powell noted the Fed has no need to hurry. Also said recent inflation readings have been good and could get help from easing shelter inflation. Analysts generally see an extended hold from the Fed moving forward though some say in-line inflation readings possibly leading to cuts by midyear. Beyond the FOMC, Fedspeak continued to have a cautious bend this month with officials calling for a softer pace of rate cuts this year with relatively slow progress on inflation. December FOMC minutes flagged inflation risks to the upside had increased. However, Waller notably said he believes more rate cuts will be appropriate and does not expect Trump tariff policy to meaningfully impact inflation. In other central banking news, ECB cut rates by 25 bps to 2.75%, while BoJ raised its key interest rate to about 0.5% from 0.25%, noting inflation is holding at desirable level.
On the economic data front, December core CPI came in slightly ahead of consensus, while headline was slightly below. Analyst takeaways noted release suggests core CPI inflation trend is still slowing toward the FOMC’s target, particularly afterDecember PPI also came in cooler than expected. However, December nonfarm payrolls was much hotter than expected, growing 256K m/m vs consensus 150K-160K, while unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%. Report reaffirmed growing expectations that Fed will be on an extended hold. Elsewhere, December retail sales slightly missed though control group beat with tariffs flagged as an area of uncertainty for retail. December PCE was in line with consensus with consumer spending coming in ahead of expectations. Meanwhile, December ISM Manufacturing Index beat though employment fell while prices increased.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 6 last week. There are 582 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 1/30/2025 – In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 212,500 a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 1/10/2025 – The US Economy added 256k nonfarm jobs in December and the Unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.69. Hiring highlights include +46k Healthcare, +43k Retail Trade, +33k Government, and +23k in Social Assistance.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 1/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.798 million units in December.
Chicago PMI – Released 1/31/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 39.5 from 36.9 points in December. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 14th successive month in January. New orders rebounded by 13.8 points. Production increased by 4.0 points, matching the level seen in November. Inventories increased by 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023, following four consecutive months of decline. However, employment dropped 9.0 points, to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Regarding price development, prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive fall and the lowest level since July 2024.
Personal Income – Released 1/31/2025 – Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $79.7 billion (0.4 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6 billion (0.7 percent).
Advance Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 1/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Durable Goods – Released 1/28/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $6.3 billion or 2.2% to $276.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.0% November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.4%. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, led the decrease, $6.9 billion or 7.4% to $86.1 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 1/28/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 109.5 to 104.1 in January. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 2.6 points to 83.9, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month. All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.
New Residential Sales – Released 1/27/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent above the revised November rate of 674,000 and is 6.7 percent above the December 2023 estimate of 654,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2024 was $427,000. The average sales price was $513,600.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 1/24/2025 – Existing home sales in December increased 2.2% from November and increased 9.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.24 million in December seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,400, up 6.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 1/17/2025 – December housing starts came in at 1,499,000, 15.8% above the November estimate but is 4.4% below the December 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.7% below the November rate at $1,483,000 and is 3.1% below the December 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 1/17/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Manufacturing increased 0.6%. Utilities output increased 2.1%. Mining increased 1.8%. Total industrial production in December was 0.5% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.6% in December, a rate that is 2.1% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 1/16/2025 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in December and are up 3.9% above December 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 1/15/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in November. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 1/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in December.
Consumer Credit – Released 1/8/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent in November. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 1/7/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $5.4 billion to $103.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $25.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 1/7/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the sixth consecutive month indicating expansion in ten of the twelve months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent 2.0 percent higher than November’s reading of 52.1 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/3/2025 – The December Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 percent, 0.9 percent higher compared to November. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 52.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 50.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 3.5 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/2/2024 – Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, almost unchanged from the October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of $2,090.7 billion.
This week we get data on U.S. Construction Spending, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, JOLTS, and the January Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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