Major US equity indices were somewhat higher last week, though trading volumes were thin due to the midweek Christmas holiday and general slowing ahead of year-end. Big tech was mostly higher, with TSLA +2.5% for the week despite a ~5% drop in Friday’s session. The broader tech space gave up some of its pre-Christmas strength, though semis still outperformed, with AVGO up 9.5%. Other outperformers included energy, managed care, airlines, rails, pharma/biotech, and larger-cap banks. Some of the notable laggards were software, media, building product, discount retail, homebuilders, hospitals, and cruiselines.
Treasuries were weaker and the curve continued to steepen; the 2/10 spread hit its most positive level since June 2022. Yields are starting to give markets pause as the long end continues steepening. The 10Y yield is up over 100 bps since the Fed’s September “jumbo” cut of 50 bps.
The dollar was stronger on yen cross but little changed vs euro and sterling; DXY +0.4% is above the $108 level and up in 12 of the past 13 weeks. Gold was off 0.5%, logging its fourth drop of the past five weeks. WTI crude rose 1.6%.
There were few notable developments in the holiday-shortened week.Tuesday’s short session saw some strength amid thoughts that hawkish Fed takeaways and related derisking had been overdone, strength which may have played into the sharp selloff on Friday. And note that both the upward Tuesday move and Friday’s slide downward were led by tech, which has been a notable outperformer this month. There were also thoughts that rising Treasury rates could have exerted some pressure; the 30Y yield rose 8bp this week after a multi-month run higher (the bond’s yield has risen 46bp in December alone).
There was a mix of reports from the economic front. December consumer confidence missed on drops in both the present situation and expectations components, but respondents’ views of the labor market improved. November new-home sales were higher m/m, though undershot consensus. Headline November durable-goods orders were light, but core capital-goods orders were stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims were lower w/w, though continuing claims printed at their highest level since November 2021.
As it stands, the S&P is still on track to post its second consecutive 20%+ annual performance, with bulls pointing to the intact soft-/no-landing narrative, consumer resilience, upbeat corporate earnings forecasts, optimism about the incoming administration, solid equity inflows, and positive seasonality. That said, concerns remain about the narrowness of the market’s gains, a Fed possibly more hesitant to cut, strains on the consumer, and the inflationary potential of next year’s possible trade wars.
There will be a fair bit of economic data next week, including November pending home sales (Monday); November FHFA and Case-Shiller home prices (Tuesday); initial jobless claims and November construction spending (Thursday); and December ISM manufacturing (Friday). No Fed speakers are on the calendar and no major companies are scheduled to report earnings. The market will be closed on Wednesday in observance of New Year’s Day.
The Baker Hughes rig count was flat last week. There are 589 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 33 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 12/26/2024 – In the week ending December 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,500 an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
November Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 12/6/2024 – The US Economyadded 227k nonfarm jobs in November and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.61. Hiring highlights include +54k Healthcare, +33k Government, +53k Leisure and Hospitality, and +32k in Transportation.
Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents/0.4% to $35.61.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.2%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was relatively unchanged at 62.5%.
Average work week increased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 12/3/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023.This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.9 billion or 2.9% to $95.5 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 111.7 to 104.7 in December. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.
New Residential Sales – Released 12/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/20/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.521 million units in November.
Personal Income – Released 12/20/2024 – Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 12/19/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “second” and “advance” estimates which both had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Existing Home Sales –Released 12/19/2024 – Existing home sales in November increased 4.8% from October and increased 6.1% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.15 million in November seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $406,100, up 4.7% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 12/18/2024 – November housing starts came in at 1,289,000, 1.8% below the October estimate and is 14.6% below the November 2023 rate. Building permits were 6.1% above the October rate at $1,419,000 but is 0.2% below the November 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.1% in November after falling 0.4% in October. Manufacturing increased 0.2%. Utilities output decreased 1.3%. Mining decreased 0.9%. Total industrial production in November was 0.9% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 12/17/2024– Headline retail sales were up 0.7% in November and are up 3.8% above November 2023.
Producer Price Index– Released 12/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
Consumer Price Index –Released 12/11/2024– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in each of the last four months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 12/6/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.5 percent in October. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 12/5/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $73.8 billion in October, down $10.0 billion from $83.8 billion in September.October exports were $265.7 billion, $4.3 billion less than September exports. October imports were $339.6 billion, $14.3 billion less than September imports. The October decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $10.4 billion to $98.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $24.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 12/4/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in November for the fifth consecutive month indicating expansion in nine of the eleven months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 52.1 percent 3.9 percent lower than October’s reading of 56.0 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 12/2/2024 – Construction spending during October 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,174.0 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,164.7 billion. The October figure is 5.0 percent above the October 2023 estimate of $2,071.1 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/2/2024 – The November Manufacturing PMI registered 48.4 percent, 1.9 percent higher compared to October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index returned to expansion territory, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent.
Chicago PMI– Released 11/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in November and fell to 40.2 from 41.6 points in October. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 12th successive month in November.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Construction Spending.on, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP, and Personal Income.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 52, 2024
Major US equity indices were somewhat higher last week, though trading volumes were thin due to the midweek Christmas holiday and general slowing ahead of year-end. Big tech was mostly higher, with TSLA +2.5% for the week despite a ~5% drop in Friday’s session. The broader tech space gave up some of its pre-Christmas strength, though semis still outperformed, with AVGO up 9.5%. Other outperformers included energy, managed care, airlines, rails, pharma/biotech, and larger-cap banks. Some of the notable laggards were software, media, building product, discount retail, homebuilders, hospitals, and cruiselines.
Treasuries were weaker and the curve continued to steepen; the 2/10 spread hit its most positive level since June 2022. Yields are starting to give markets pause as the long end continues steepening. The 10Y yield is up over 100 bps since the Fed’s September “jumbo” cut of 50 bps.
The dollar was stronger on yen cross but little changed vs euro and sterling; DXY +0.4% is above the $108 level and up in 12 of the past 13 weeks. Gold was off 0.5%, logging its fourth drop of the past five weeks. WTI crude rose 1.6%.
There were few notable developments in the holiday-shortened week. Tuesday’s short session saw some strength amid thoughts that hawkish Fed takeaways and related derisking had been overdone, strength which may have played into the sharp selloff on Friday. And note that both the upward Tuesday move and Friday’s slide downward were led by tech, which has been a notable outperformer this month. There were also thoughts that rising Treasury rates could have exerted some pressure; the 30Y yield rose 8bp this week after a multi-month run higher (the bond’s yield has risen 46bp in December alone).
There was a mix of reports from the economic front. December consumer confidence missed on drops in both the present situation and expectations components, but respondents’ views of the labor market improved. November new-home sales were higher m/m, though undershot consensus. Headline November durable-goods orders were light, but core capital-goods orders were stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims were lower w/w, though continuing claims printed at their highest level since November 2021.
As it stands, the S&P is still on track to post its second consecutive 20%+ annual performance, with bulls pointing to the intact soft-/no-landing narrative, consumer resilience, upbeat corporate earnings forecasts, optimism about the incoming administration, solid equity inflows, and positive seasonality. That said, concerns remain about the narrowness of the market’s gains, a Fed possibly more hesitant to cut, strains on the consumer, and the inflationary potential of next year’s possible trade wars.
There will be a fair bit of economic data next week, including November pending home sales (Monday); November FHFA and Case-Shiller home prices (Tuesday); initial jobless claims and November construction spending (Thursday); and December ISM manufacturing (Friday). No Fed speakers are on the calendar and no major companies are scheduled to report earnings. The market will be closed on Wednesday in observance of New Year’s Day.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
November FOMC Statement November Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count was flat last week. There are 589 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 33 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 12/26/2024 – In the week ending December 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,500 an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
November Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 12/6/2024 – The US Economy added 227k nonfarm jobs in November and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents to $35.61. Hiring highlights include +54k Healthcare, +33k Government, +53k Leisure and Hospitality, and +32k in Transportation.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 12/3/2024 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023.This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.9 billion or 2.9% to $95.5 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 111.7 to 104.7 in December. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.
New Residential Sales – Released 12/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/20/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.521 million units in November.
Personal Income – Released 12/20/2024 – Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 12/19/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “second” and “advance” estimates which both had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Existing Home Sales – Released 12/19/2024 – Existing home sales in November increased 4.8% from October and increased 6.1% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.15 million in November seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $406,100, up 4.7% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 12/18/2024 – November housing starts came in at 1,289,000, 1.8% below the October estimate and is 14.6% below the November 2023 rate. Building permits were 6.1% above the October rate at $1,419,000 but is 0.2% below the November 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/17/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.1% in November after falling 0.4% in October. Manufacturing increased 0.2%. Utilities output decreased 1.3%. Mining decreased 0.9%. Total industrial production in November was 0.9% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 12/17/2024 – Headline retail sales were up 0.7% in November and are up 3.8% above November 2023.
Producer Price Index – Released 12/12/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
Consumer Price Index – Released 12/11/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in each of the last four months. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 12/6/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.5 percent in October. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 12/5/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $73.8 billion in October, down $10.0 billion from $83.8 billion in September.October exports were $265.7 billion, $4.3 billion less than September exports. October imports were $339.6 billion, $14.3 billion less than September imports. The October decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $10.4 billion to $98.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $24.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 12/4/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in November for the fifth consecutive month indicating expansion in nine of the eleven months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 52.1 percent 3.9 percent lower than October’s reading of 56.0 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 12/2/2024 – Construction spending during October 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,174.0 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,164.7 billion. The October figure is 5.0 percent above the October 2023 estimate of $2,071.1 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/2/2024 – The November Manufacturing PMI registered 48.4 percent, 1.9 percent higher compared to October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index returned to expansion territory, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent.
Chicago PMI – Released 11/29/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in November and fell to 40.2 from 41.6 points in October. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 12th successive month in November.
This week we get data on Chicago PMI, Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Construction Spending.on, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP, and Personal Income.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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