Tariffs in focus this morning as Trump said on Sunday US will impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports starting on Monday. Added that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, which will go into effect “almost immediately”. However, while 10% incremental tariffs on China have been implemented, an administration official said they could be paused if meaningful headway on fentanyl is seen before Trump and Chinese President Xi speak, which is expected soon. Reports have also discussed how China is looking to offset some of Trump’s leverage on trade by targeting US tech companies. Elsewhere, there continues to be a lot of discussion about how Trump’s trade ire will soon shift to Europe. However, a report late last week pointed out that the EU is preparing to slash its tariffs on US auto imports in an effort to avert a trade war. Tariffs still part of the bearish narrative from a growth, inflation and corporate uncertainty standpoint. However, also expectations that given Trump’s outsized sensitivity to markets as a scoreboard, any tariff-driven selloffs could be short-lived as the administration spins them as more of a negotiating tactic.
Major US equity indices were lower last week, with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell all closing down for the second straight week. Big tech stocks were mostly weaker, with Google and Amazon both dropping after earnings. Other laggards included autos/suppliers, apparel, multis, homebuilders, asset managers, rails, ag chemicals, and cosmetics. Outperformers included staples retailers, communication/networking, cybersecurity, industrial metals, E&Cs, pharma/biotech, and tobacco.
Treasuries were mixed with a big flattening move; the 10Y ended the week near 4.50% after dipping as low as 4.40% midweek. This week’s quarterly refunding announcement made no change to auction sizes, as expected, and continued to state auction sizes would be maintained for the next several quarters (though there is a sense these will start to rise, perhaps starting in November). The dollar was notably weaker on the yen cross though a bit better vs the euro; the DXY (0.3%) posted its third decline of the past four weeks. Gold closed Friday at a fresh record high, gaining 1.9% for the week (and notching its sixth straight weekly rise). Oil was down, with WTI settling off 2.1% for the week.
Trade war developments dominated a week of volatile headlines. As promised, President Trump on Feb 1st announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, to begin 4-Feb. However, during a broad risk-off Monday, both Canada and Mexico won one-month reprieves by agreeing to additional border-security steps. The China tariffs went on as scheduled, with the market still waiting for a possible Trump-Xi call that might help de-escalate; Beijing also announced some retaliatory measures. In the meanwhile, the EU (a likely near-term Trump tariff target) has been working to head off a possible trade war, potentially offering to cut tariffs on US car imports. And on Friday, Trump said he would announce “reciprocal tariffs” on many unnamed countries to help balance US trade.
It was a busy week of economic data, with January nonfarm payrolls taking center stage. The 143K print was below the 170K consensus, though the prior two months were revised up by 100K; at the same time, average hourly earnings were hotter than expected (up 0.5% m/m vs the 0.3% forecast). February’s preliminary UMich consumer sentiment dipped for the second straight month while year-ahead inflation expectations saw a big rise (to 4.3% from the prior 3.3%). January ISM Manufacturing printed at its highest level since September 2022 (seeing a third straight month of new-orders expansion) while ISM Services missed with new orders dropping to their lowest point since June. Jobless claims were up w/w, but remained near recent low levels.
There were a lot of moving parts to the week, with investors continuing to be buffeted by uncertainty on several fronts. The full scope and extent of Trump’s tariff plans remain unknown, with the “negotiating tactic” narrative being punctured by last weekend’s blunt announcements, but revived somewhat by the quick shifts on Canada and Mexico. Policymakers also remain at a loss for how to model economic impacts of trade conflicts since their shape remains in flux. And on the government front, anxieties have begun to rise about domestic spending and tax issues, with the GOP still working out plans for tax-cut extensions and given they will likely need Democratic cooperation on looming government-spending and debt-limit issues.
All that said, Trump’s flexibility on tariff policy may also reduce the risks of all-out trade conflicts and the economic collateral damage they could bring. The market is still hopeful about the prospects of lower energy prices and deficit reductions (with Treasury Secretary Bessent this week highlighting the administration’s focus on bringing down 10Y yields). Equities did see some support this week from lower Treasury yields, though this was diminished somewhat by Friday’s Treasury weakness. Still, solid earnings metrics, outsized retail buying, and prospects for loan demand to strengthen this year (per the latest SLOOS report) all helped bolster the bullish narrative.
A big question mark remains around Fed rate policy, however. Recent Fedspeak has hewed closely to the narrative that while inflation is moving toward the 2% target and the underlying economy remains strong, policymakers should pay careful attention to the incoming data to form judgments about whether further rate cuts are warranted this year. At present, futures are pricing in a likelihood of a single 25bp rate cut in June or July, and possibly no further action until mid-2026. In this context, the week’s January CPI and PPI reports, as well as Fed Chair Powell’s two days of testimony before Congress, will be important to watch.
We have now moved more than halfway through the Q4 earnings season, with some 62% of S&P constituents having reported. So far, earnings are coming in well ahead of expectations, with the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P standing at 16.4%, its highest level since Q4’21. This compares to the 11.8% expected at the end of the quarter. However, the percentage of companies beating revenue estimate is below five-year averages, and the market is rewarding positive earning surprises by a smaller than average margin.
This week will see another busy economic calendar, featuring January CPI on Wednesday, January PPI on Thursday, and January retail sales on Friday. In addition, Monday brings the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations (including inflation outlooks) from the NY Fed. The Fed focus will be on Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary-policy testimony before Congress, Tuesday before the Senate and Wednesday before the House. It will be another busy week of Q4 earnings, though a step-down in intensity (78 S&P constituents vs 131 in the week just completed). In the geopolitical realm, there may be eyes on the Munich Security Conference (Feb 14-16), where it is possible President Trump may outline his approach for ending the Ukraine war.
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 4 last week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly. December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 2/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 143k nonfarm jobs in January and the Unemployment rate declined to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents to $35.87. Hiring highlights include +44k Healthcare, +34k Retail Trade, +32k Government, and +22k in Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents/0.5% to $35.87.
U3 unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.0%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.5%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%.
Average work week declined 0.1 hours to 34.1 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 2/6/2025 – In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 216,750 an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 2/4/2025 – The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 2/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in December. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.6 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 2/5/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports. The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $18.9 billion to $123.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 2/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the seventh consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent 1.2 percent lower than December’s reading of 54.0 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 2/3/2025 – The January Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 percent, 1.7 percent higher compared to December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 55.1 percent, 3.0 percentage points higher than the 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December’s figure of 49.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 2/3/2024 – Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, up 0.9 percent from the November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent above the December 2023 estimate of $2,101.3 billion.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 1/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.798 million units in December.
Chicago PMI– Released 1/31/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 39.5 from 36.9 points in December. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 14th successive month in January. New orders rebounded by 13.8 points. Production increased by 4.0 points, matching the level seen in November. Inventories increased by 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023, following four consecutive months of decline. However, employment dropped 9.0 points, to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Regarding price development, prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive fall and the lowest level since July 2024.
Personal Income – Released 1/31/2025 – Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $79.7 billion (0.4 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6 billion (0.7 percent).
Advance Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 1/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Durable Goods – Released 1/28/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $6.3 billion or 2.2% to $276.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.0% November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.4%. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, led the decrease, $6.9 billion or 7.4% to $86.1 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 1/28/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 109.5 to 104.1 in January. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 2.6 points to 83.9, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month. All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.
New Residential Sales – Released 1/27/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent above the revised November rate of 674,000 and is 6.7 percent above the December 2023 estimate of 654,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2024 was $427,000. The average sales price was $513,600.
Existing Home Sales –Released 1/24/2025 – Existing home sales in December increased 2.2% from November and increased 9.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.24 million in December seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,400, up 6.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 1/17/2025 – December housing starts came in at 1,499,000, 15.8% above the November estimate but is 4.4% below the December 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.7% below the November rate at $1,483,000 and is 3.1% below the December 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 1/17/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Manufacturing increased 0.6%. Utilities output increased 2.1%. Mining increased 1.8%. Total industrial production in December was 0.5% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.6% in December, a rate that is 2.1% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 1/16/2025– Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in December and are up 3.9% above December 2023.
Consumer Price Index –Released 1/15/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in November. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index– Released 1/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in December.
This week we get data on PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 6, 2024
Go Birds!!!!
Tariffs in focus this morning as Trump said on Sunday US will impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports starting on Monday. Added that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, which will go into effect “almost immediately”. However, while 10% incremental tariffs on China have been implemented, an administration official said they could be paused if meaningful headway on fentanyl is seen before Trump and Chinese President Xi speak, which is expected soon. Reports have also discussed how China is looking to offset some of Trump’s leverage on trade by targeting US tech companies. Elsewhere, there continues to be a lot of discussion about how Trump’s trade ire will soon shift to Europe. However, a report late last week pointed out that the EU is preparing to slash its tariffs on US auto imports in an effort to avert a trade war. Tariffs still part of the bearish narrative from a growth, inflation and corporate uncertainty standpoint. However, also expectations that given Trump’s outsized sensitivity to markets as a scoreboard, any tariff-driven selloffs could be short-lived as the administration spins them as more of a negotiating tactic.
Major US equity indices were lower last week, with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell all closing down for the second straight week. Big tech stocks were mostly weaker, with Google and Amazon both dropping after earnings. Other laggards included autos/suppliers, apparel, multis, homebuilders, asset managers, rails, ag chemicals, and cosmetics. Outperformers included staples retailers, communication/networking, cybersecurity, industrial metals, E&Cs, pharma/biotech, and tobacco.
Treasuries were mixed with a big flattening move; the 10Y ended the week near 4.50% after dipping as low as 4.40% midweek. This week’s quarterly refunding announcement made no change to auction sizes, as expected, and continued to state auction sizes would be maintained for the next several quarters (though there is a sense these will start to rise, perhaps starting in November). The dollar was notably weaker on the yen cross though a bit better vs the euro; the DXY (0.3%) posted its third decline of the past four weeks. Gold closed Friday at a fresh record high, gaining 1.9% for the week (and notching its sixth straight weekly rise). Oil was down, with WTI settling off 2.1% for the week.
Trade war developments dominated a week of volatile headlines. As promised, President Trump on Feb 1st announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, to begin 4-Feb. However, during a broad risk-off Monday, both Canada and Mexico won one-month reprieves by agreeing to additional border-security steps. The China tariffs went on as scheduled, with the market still waiting for a possible Trump-Xi call that might help de-escalate; Beijing also announced some retaliatory measures. In the meanwhile, the EU (a likely near-term Trump tariff target) has been working to head off a possible trade war, potentially offering to cut tariffs on US car imports. And on Friday, Trump said he would announce “reciprocal tariffs” on many unnamed countries to help balance US trade.
It was a busy week of economic data, with January nonfarm payrolls taking center stage. The 143K print was below the 170K consensus, though the prior two months were revised up by 100K; at the same time, average hourly earnings were hotter than expected (up 0.5% m/m vs the 0.3% forecast). February’s preliminary UMich consumer sentiment dipped for the second straight month while year-ahead inflation expectations saw a big rise (to 4.3% from the prior 3.3%). January ISM Manufacturing printed at its highest level since September 2022 (seeing a third straight month of new-orders expansion) while ISM Services missed with new orders dropping to their lowest point since June. Jobless claims were up w/w, but remained near recent low levels.
There were a lot of moving parts to the week, with investors continuing to be buffeted by uncertainty on several fronts. The full scope and extent of Trump’s tariff plans remain unknown, with the “negotiating tactic” narrative being punctured by last weekend’s blunt announcements, but revived somewhat by the quick shifts on Canada and Mexico. Policymakers also remain at a loss for how to model economic impacts of trade conflicts since their shape remains in flux. And on the government front, anxieties have begun to rise about domestic spending and tax issues, with the GOP still working out plans for tax-cut extensions and given they will likely need Democratic cooperation on looming government-spending and debt-limit issues.
All that said, Trump’s flexibility on tariff policy may also reduce the risks of all-out trade conflicts and the economic collateral damage they could bring. The market is still hopeful about the prospects of lower energy prices and deficit reductions (with Treasury Secretary Bessent this week highlighting the administration’s focus on bringing down 10Y yields). Equities did see some support this week from lower Treasury yields, though this was diminished somewhat by Friday’s Treasury weakness. Still, solid earnings metrics, outsized retail buying, and prospects for loan demand to strengthen this year (per the latest SLOOS report) all helped bolster the bullish narrative.
A big question mark remains around Fed rate policy, however. Recent Fedspeak has hewed closely to the narrative that while inflation is moving toward the 2% target and the underlying economy remains strong, policymakers should pay careful attention to the incoming data to form judgments about whether further rate cuts are warranted this year. At present, futures are pricing in a likelihood of a single 25bp rate cut in June or July, and possibly no further action until mid-2026. In this context, the week’s January CPI and PPI reports, as well as Fed Chair Powell’s two days of testimony before Congress, will be important to watch.
We have now moved more than halfway through the Q4 earnings season, with some 62% of S&P constituents having reported. So far, earnings are coming in well ahead of expectations, with the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P standing at 16.4%, its highest level since Q4’21. This compares to the 11.8% expected at the end of the quarter. However, the percentage of companies beating revenue estimate is below five-year averages, and the market is rewarding positive earning surprises by a smaller than average margin.
This week will see another busy economic calendar, featuring January CPI on Wednesday, January PPI on Thursday, and January retail sales on Friday. In addition, Monday brings the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations (including inflation outlooks) from the NY Fed. The Fed focus will be on Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary-policy testimony before Congress, Tuesday before the Senate and Wednesday before the House. It will be another busy week of Q4 earnings, though a step-down in intensity (78 S&P constituents vs 131 in the week just completed). In the geopolitical realm, there may be eyes on the Munich Security Conference (Feb 14-16), where it is possible President Trump may outline his approach for ending the Ukraine war.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 4 last week. There are 586 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly. December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 2/7/2025 – The US Economy added 143k nonfarm jobs in January and the Unemployment rate declined to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents to $35.87. Hiring highlights include +44k Healthcare, +34k Retail Trade, +32k Government, and +22k in Social Assistance.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 2/6/2025 – In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 216,750 an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 2/4/2025 – The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 2/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in December. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.6 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 2/5/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports. The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $18.9 billion to $123.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 2/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the seventh consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent 1.2 percent lower than December’s reading of 54.0 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 2/3/2025 – The January Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 percent, 1.7 percent higher compared to December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 55.1 percent, 3.0 percentage points higher than the 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December’s figure of 49.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 2/3/2024 – Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, up 0.9 percent from the November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent above the December 2023 estimate of $2,101.3 billion.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 1/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.798 million units in December.
Chicago PMI – Released 1/31/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 39.5 from 36.9 points in December. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 14th successive month in January. New orders rebounded by 13.8 points. Production increased by 4.0 points, matching the level seen in November. Inventories increased by 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023, following four consecutive months of decline. However, employment dropped 9.0 points, to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Regarding price development, prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive fall and the lowest level since July 2024.
Personal Income – Released 1/31/2025 – Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $79.7 billion (0.4 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6 billion (0.7 percent).
Advance Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 1/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Durable Goods – Released 1/28/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $6.3 billion or 2.2% to $276.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.0% November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.4%. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, led the decrease, $6.9 billion or 7.4% to $86.1 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 1/28/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 109.5 to 104.1 in January. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 2.6 points to 83.9, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month. All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.
New Residential Sales – Released 1/27/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent above the revised November rate of 674,000 and is 6.7 percent above the December 2023 estimate of 654,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2024 was $427,000. The average sales price was $513,600.
Existing Home Sales – Released 1/24/2025 – Existing home sales in December increased 2.2% from November and increased 9.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.24 million in December seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,400, up 6.0% from one year ago.
Housing Starts– Released 1/17/2025 – December housing starts came in at 1,499,000, 15.8% above the November estimate but is 4.4% below the December 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.7% below the November rate at $1,483,000 and is 3.1% below the December 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 1/17/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Manufacturing increased 0.6%. Utilities output increased 2.1%. Mining increased 1.8%. Total industrial production in December was 0.5% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.6% in December, a rate that is 2.1% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 1/16/2025 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in December and are up 3.9% above December 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 1/15/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in November. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 1/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in December.
This week we get data on PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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