Major US equity indices finished lower for February with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 sharply underperforming (now lower YTD). S&P 500 still in the green for 2025 while equal weighted index outperformed official index this month by 84bps. Big tech was mostly lower with GOOGL -16.5%, TSLA -27.6%, and AMZN -10.8% the laggards, while NVDA +3.9% ended in the green despite a post-earnings selloff. Other areas of weakness this month included apparel, homebuilders, cruiselines, semi equipment, interactive media, investment banks, trucking, and chemicals. Outperformers included steel, pharma, waste, regional banks, insurance, REITs, food/beverages, and tobacco. Treasuries were notably firmer with yields sharply lower across the curve. Dollar Index down 0.7%. Gold finished up 0.5%. Oil was down 3.8%, first monthly loss since November 24’.
February saw risk-off sentiment prevail amid a number of more bearish narratives including 1) growth/stagflation worries amid some softer economic readings paired with hotter inflation indicators; 2) ongoing uncertainty around Trump trade/immigration/tax/Ukraine policies; 3) AI secular growth theme concerns with Nvidia lower despite some positive AI takeaways from results; 4) increased retail selling pressure worsened by signs of extended positioning (Mag 7 Index briefly dipped into correction territory); and 5) cautious Fed amid hotter CPI report and uncertainty around broader macro.
Trade war developments dominated headlines this month with President Trump announcing on 1-Feb 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. However, tariffs were ultimately delayed pending negotiations. Bloomberg reported White House has not actually made final decision on tariffs though Trump announced Thursday March 4th date for Mexico and Canada tariffs, said April 2nd date for reciprocal tariffs remains in force, and said China will be charged an additional 10% tariff as of that date. Analysts continued to flag negative growth implications Trump’s trade and immigration policies may have along with potentially inflationary impacts. February consumer confidence reinforced this, registering biggest decline since August of 2021 with commentary noting concerns around sticky inflation and impacts from tariffs.
Hotter January CPI report received a lot of attention, while other softer data on growth raised some emerging recession/stagflation fears. Shelter continued to be sticky inflation point in latest CPI. Analysts pointed to possible unique January seasonality to explain hotter headline reading. Regardless, analysts takeaways noted high bar for next Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, January core PPI also had some hotter takeaways with annualized readings above consensus and December’s core revised higher. Hotter inflation readings were notably paired with softer January nonfarm payrolls report and January retail sales report well-below consensus, falling for first time since Aug-24. Housing data also showed some softening this month. January ISM services missed with new orders lowest since Jun-24, though ISM manufacturing was stronger, coming in highest since Sep-22. Both had commentary flagging tariff uncertainty as top-of-mind.
Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the latest CPI report showed Fed has more work to do on inflation. He also remarked that comments from President Trump will not impact Fed’s policy decisions. Broader Fedspeak continued to have cautious bend this month amid uncertain macro backdrop with multiple Fed officials noting Fed is well-positioned to remain restrictive pending better clarity on inflation and tariff impacts, though some noted Fed may need to contend with growth risks considerations as well. Market pricing in next rate cut for June.
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 1 last week. There are 593 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 36 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 2/27/2025 – In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,000 a increase of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 2/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 143k nonfarm jobs in January and the Unemployment rate declined to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents to $35.87. Hiring highlights include +44k Healthcare, +34k Retail Trade, +32k Government, and +22k in Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents/0.5% to $35.87.
U3 unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.0%. U6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.5%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%.
Average work week declined 0.1 hours to 34.1 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 2/4/2025 – The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Chicago PMI – Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
Personal Income – Released 2/28/2025 – Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 2/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
Durable Goods – Released 2/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two months of decline, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $8.6 billion or 9.8% to $96.5 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 2/26/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
Consumer Confidence – Released 2/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 104.1 to 98.3 in February. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 2/21/2025 – Existing home sales in January decreased 4.9% from December but increased 2.0% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.08 million in January seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $396,900, up 4.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 2/19/2025 – January housing starts came in at 1,366,000, 9.8% below the December estimate and is 0.7% below the January 2024 rate. Building permits were 0.1% above the December rate at $1,483,000 but is 1.7% below the January 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 2/14/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.5% in January after rising 1.0% in December. Manufacturing decreased 0.1%. Utilities output increased 7.2%. Mining decreased 1.2%. Total industrial production in January was 2.0% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.8% in January, a rate that is 1.8% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 2/14/2025 – Headline retail sales were down 0.9% in January but are up 4.2% above January 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 2/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.5 percent in December and 0.2 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
Consumer Price Index – Released 2/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 2/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in December. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.6 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 2/5/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports. The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $18.9 billion to $123.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 2/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the seventh consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent 1.2 percent lower than December’s reading of 54.0 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 2/3/2025 – The January Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 percent, 1.7 percent higher compared to December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 55.1 percent, 3.0 percentage points higher than the 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December’s figure of 49.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 2/3/2024 – Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, up 0.9 percent from the November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent above the December 2023 estimate of $2,101.3 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 1/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.798 million units in December.
This week we get data on U.S. Construction Spending, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, and the February Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 9, 2024
Major US equity indices finished lower for February with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 sharply underperforming (now lower YTD). S&P 500 still in the green for 2025 while equal weighted index outperformed official index this month by 84bps. Big tech was mostly lower with GOOGL -16.5%, TSLA -27.6%, and AMZN -10.8% the laggards, while NVDA +3.9% ended in the green despite a post-earnings selloff. Other areas of weakness this month included apparel, homebuilders, cruiselines, semi equipment, interactive media, investment banks, trucking, and chemicals. Outperformers included steel, pharma, waste, regional banks, insurance, REITs, food/beverages, and tobacco. Treasuries were notably firmer with yields sharply lower across the curve. Dollar Index down 0.7%. Gold finished up 0.5%. Oil was down 3.8%, first monthly loss since November 24’.
February saw risk-off sentiment prevail amid a number of more bearish narratives including 1) growth/stagflation worries amid some softer economic readings paired with hotter inflation indicators; 2) ongoing uncertainty around Trump trade/immigration/tax/Ukraine policies; 3) AI secular growth theme concerns with Nvidia lower despite some positive AI takeaways from results; 4) increased retail selling pressure worsened by signs of extended positioning (Mag 7 Index briefly dipped into correction territory); and 5) cautious Fed amid hotter CPI report and uncertainty around broader macro.
Trade war developments dominated headlines this month with President Trump announcing on 1-Feb 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. However, tariffs were ultimately delayed pending negotiations. Bloomberg reported White House has not actually made final decision on tariffs though Trump announced Thursday March 4th date for Mexico and Canada tariffs, said April 2nd date for reciprocal tariffs remains in force, and said China will be charged an additional 10% tariff as of that date. Analysts continued to flag negative growth implications Trump’s trade and immigration policies may have along with potentially inflationary impacts. February consumer confidence reinforced this, registering biggest decline since August of 2021 with commentary noting concerns around sticky inflation and impacts from tariffs.
Hotter January CPI report received a lot of attention, while other softer data on growth raised some emerging recession/stagflation fears. Shelter continued to be sticky inflation point in latest CPI. Analysts pointed to possible unique January seasonality to explain hotter headline reading. Regardless, analysts takeaways noted high bar for next Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, January core PPI also had some hotter takeaways with annualized readings above consensus and December’s core revised higher. Hotter inflation readings were notably paired with softer January nonfarm payrolls report and January retail sales report well-below consensus, falling for first time since Aug-24. Housing data also showed some softening this month. January ISM services missed with new orders lowest since Jun-24, though ISM manufacturing was stronger, coming in highest since Sep-22. Both had commentary flagging tariff uncertainty as top-of-mind.
Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the latest CPI report showed Fed has more work to do on inflation. He also remarked that comments from President Trump will not impact Fed’s policy decisions. Broader Fedspeak continued to have cautious bend this month amid uncertain macro backdrop with multiple Fed officials noting Fed is well-positioned to remain restrictive pending better clarity on inflation and tariff impacts, though some noted Fed may need to contend with growth risks considerations as well. Market pricing in next rate cut for June.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
January FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count gained 1 last week. There are 593 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 36 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 2/27/2025 – In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,000 a increase of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 2/7/2025 – The US Economyadded 143k nonfarm jobs in January and the Unemployment rate declined to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents to $35.87. Hiring highlights include +44k Healthcare, +34k Retail Trade, +32k Government, and +22k in Social Assistance.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 2/4/2025 – The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 1/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from September 2024. The 12-month period ending in December 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.8%. The 12-month period ending December 2023 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending in December 2024 and increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.6 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Chicago PMI – Released 2/28/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in January but rose to 45.5 from 39.5 points in January. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 15th successive month in February.
Personal Income – Released 2/28/2025 – Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Second Estimate of 4th Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 2/27/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
Durable Goods – Released 2/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following two months of decline, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to $286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.8% December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two months of decline, led the increase, $8.6 billion or 9.8% to $96.5 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 2/26/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
Consumer Confidence – Released 2/25/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 104.1 to 98.3 in February. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 2/21/2025 – Existing home sales in January decreased 4.9% from December but increased 2.0% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.08 million in January seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $396,900, up 4.8% from one year ago.
Housing Starts – Released 2/19/2025 – January housing starts came in at 1,366,000, 9.8% below the December estimate and is 0.7% below the January 2024 rate. Building permits were 0.1% above the December rate at $1,483,000 but is 1.7% below the January 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 2/14/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.5% in January after rising 1.0% in December. Manufacturing decreased 0.1%. Utilities output increased 7.2%. Mining decreased 1.2%. Total industrial production in January was 2.0% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.8% in January, a rate that is 1.8% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 2/14/2025 – Headline retail sales were down 0.9% in January but are up 4.2% above January 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 2/13/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.5 percent in December and 0.2 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
Consumer Price Index – Released 2/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 2/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in December. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.6 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 2/5/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports. The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $18.9 billion to $123.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.5 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 2/5/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the seventh consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent 1.2 percent lower than December’s reading of 54.0 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 2/3/2025 – The January Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 percent, 1.7 percent higher compared to December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 55.1 percent, 3.0 percentage points higher than the 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December’s figure of 49.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 2/3/2024 – Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, up 0.9 percent from the November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent above the December 2023 estimate of $2,101.3 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 1/31/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.798 million units in December.
This week we get data on U.S. Construction Spending, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, U.S. Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, and the February Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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